Lions vs. Argonauts Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Vernon Adams Jr. Ready to Shine
Chad Kelly won't play in the Toronto Argonauts' opener against the B.C. Lions at BMO Field on Sunday, as we offer our top Lions vs. Argonauts predictions based on the best CFL odds.
The CFL season has started with a bang. A lot has occurred in a few days, including chips in footballs and back-to-back upsets. The B.C. Lions will look to avoid losing against the shorthanded and underdog Toronto Argonauts. The game kicks off at BMO Field in Toronto, Ont., at 7 p.m. ET (TSN/RDS, CFL+).
With Argos QB Chad Kelly serving a minimum nine-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on gender-based violence, the Lions are 5.5-point road favorites. There's significant buzz around this B.C. team, with QB Vernon Adams Jr. leading the CFL Most Outstanding Player odds and the Lions having the second-shortest Grey Cup odds in the West.
Here are our best Lions vs. Argonauts predictions for CFL Week 1 (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lions vs. Argonauts prediction
Lions -5.5 (-111 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
There may not be a more electric quarterback in the CFL than a healthy Adams. He's long had fans across North America, dating back to his days at Oregon, thanks to his jaw-dropping escapability. However, it's been a long road for the 31-year-old to reach his potential in the CFL. Injuries and inconsistencies took him from the Montreal Alouettes to the Saskatchewan Roughriders and then back to the Als before finally settling in with the Lions.
Last year, he erupted with over 5,000 yards of total offense and helped the Lions to the third-best record in the league (12-6). Hoping to build off of that momentum this season, B.C. is poised to pounce on the Argos, who are hard to project without Kelly under center. The reigning Most Outstanding Player, Kelly was the catalyst for the best regular season team in the league in 2023. Without him, Cameron Dukes is expected to get the start against B.C.
The 25-year-old Dukes has more career interceptions (3) than touchdown passes (2) and has thrown only 96 passes in the CFL. Having his first start come against a Lions defense that ranked third in yards allowed (349.4) and fourth in points allowed (24.4) last season won't be easy. Not to mention, the Argos lost All-Star running back A.J. Ouellette to the Roughriders in the offseason.
Down their star QB and workhorse RB, the Argos defense will have even more pressure on it to slow Adams, who returns the majority of his top pass catchers from last season. But Toronto's defense is dealing with major roster attrition after losing several key pieces in free agency.
That's why I feel comfortable taking the Lions to cover on the road with the odds implying a 52.61% win probability, according to our odds converter, and a $10 bet paying a $9.01 profit.
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Lions vs. Argonauts first team to score
Lions (-167)
Given the Argos QB situation, it's no surprise to see this market lean so heavily in the Lions direction. Not only do they have the CFL's leading passer from last season in Adams, but they are bringing back one of the league's best kickers in Sean Whyte. With kickers now having the option to use footballs without microchips, we don't have to worry about Whyte struggling the same way Sergio Castillo did in the CFL opener.
Last season, Whyte was 50-for-53 on field goals, including a league-best 25 made kicks from 40-plus. That means if Adams can just get the Lions past midfield on an early drive, there's a strong chance B.C. comes away with points. These odds imply a 62.55% probability the Lions score first with a $10 bet paying out $15.99.
Lions vs. Argonauts odds
Lions vs. Argonauts odds via Betway as of Saturday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | -250 | -5.5 (-111) | Over: 47.5 (-105) |
| Argonauts | +200 | +5.5 (-111) | Under: 47.5 (-115) |
If Kelly were playing, the spread of this matchup would be drastically different, the Argos might even be 5.5-point home favorites. But without him, and no great feel for how Dukes will do in his first start, it's hard to gauge Toronto. While 5.5 points is a lot for a road team to cover, Adams is in position to be the best QB in the league this season.
Again, the Kelly situation makes betting the total difficult. These were two of the best offenses in the CFL last season, but until we know how Dukes adapts, I'd feel much more comfortable taking the Under here, which has a 53.49% win probability. The Lions were 11-6-1 betting the Over last season while the Argos were 10-8.
Lions vs. Argonauts game info
- When: Sunday, June 9
- Where: BMO Field, Toronto, Ont.
- How to watch: TSN/RDS, CFL+
- Weather: 63 degrees, 11-mph winds, 40% chance of precipitation
- Favorite: Lions -5.5 (-111 via Betway)
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