Skip to main content
A'ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces reacts after scoring as we look at the 2023 WNBA odds.
A'ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces reacts after scoring against the Washington Mystic at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images via AFP.

After trading blowouts in the first two superteam showdowns, the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty will square off in the third installment of the WNBA Commissioner's Cup title as we make our Liberty vs. Aces prediction based on the best WNBA odds.

More than bragging rights will be on the line during Tuesday's marquee matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty. A trophy and some extra cash will be up for grabs during the latest Commissioner's Cup Championship, which is slated to take place inside Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas and will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video. 

Each member of the winning team will receive around $30,000, while players on the losing squad will net about $10,000 each. The Aces defeated the Chicago Sky in last year's Commissioner's Cup, in which Chelsea Gray secured the MVP award.

There was little drama about who would meet up in the annual event this year. The Aces (27-3) and Liberty (24-6) have been the two best teams all year and are WNBA championship favorites for a reason.

But now W fans are just hoping for a competitive matchup between these two superteams. Las Vegas rolled to a 98-81 win over New York on June 29, though the Liberty responded with a 99-61 shellacking of the Aces on Aug. 6. So, which team will emerge victorious in the rubber match?

Here is our best Liberty vs. Aces prediction (odds via best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Liberty vs. Aces prediction

A'ja Wilson to win Commissioner's Cup MVP (+320 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure:
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

I'm hoping for a competitive game, but my projections would suggest otherwise. I make the spread Aces -8.7 and a total of 178. That means there is slight value in laying the points with Las Vegas or taking the Over on the point total.

For now, my favorite angle is betting on a big performance from A'ja Wilson of the Aces. The reigning MVP is coming off a 40-point performance on Friday but actually saw her WNBA MVP odds drop after Breanna Stewart of the Liberty poured in 42 points on Sunday.

What's more, Wilson hasn't really had an impact performance in the previous two meetings against New York this season. She scored 16 points in the first matchup, but took a backseat as the entire starting lineup finished in double figures. Wilson then went 2-for-14 for nine points in the lopsided loss to the Liberty on Aug. 6.

“God, please don’t ever let me shoot like that again,” Wilson told the Las Vegas Review Journal after the Liberty defeat.

Wilson should be plenty motivated to take control of this game, especially with her ability to dominate on both ends of the floor. This season, Wilson is averaging 21.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 2 assists per contest. Her numbers remain similar to Stewart's production, which is why Tuesday's matchup could help determine the MVP race.

We initially got a great deal on the betting favorite in this market due to the amount of talent between these two teams. Wilson's price is now listed at +220 to be named Commissioner's Cup MVP, followed by Kelsey Plum (+380), Jackie Young (+470), Stewart (+550), Sabrina Ionescu (+750), Chelsea Gray (+850), and Jonquel Jones (+2900).

Because I project the Aces to win comfortably, I would be fine with betting on any one of their top stars. Wilson is just due for some positive shooting regression against the Liberty, while being capable of dictating this game on the offensive and defensive end.

Let's take advantage of this price at the lone shop offering this market among our best sports betting sites. Wilson has a great chance of claiming this award, assuming the Aces prevail.

Liberty vs. Aces best odds

SpreadAces -7Aces -7.5 (-108)Aces -7.5 (-105)Aces -7Aces -7

While WNBA odds are typically slow to be released, the opening markets for the Commissioner's Cup were introduced on Monday.

The Aces were initially listed as 7.5-point favorites at our best sportsbooks, but now the spread is down to -7 at most shops. The total started at 172.5 before some early Over money came in.

As for player prop markets, Wilson's point total is set as high as 21.5 at bet365 and Caesars. If looking to bet on a big performance from Wilson, DraftKings offers her scoring prop at 20.5 with the Over listed at -120. A same-game parlay at DraftKings of Wilson to finish with 20-plus points during an Aces victory has +100 odds, as well.

Liberty vs. Aces game info

  • Date: Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2023, 9 p.m. ET
  • TV: Amazon Prime Video
  • Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Liberty-Aces prediction made 08/14/2023 at 5:15 p.m. ET.

Here are our best sports betting apps:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages