Canadian Federal Election Odds: Favorite Conservatives Continue to Pull Away
One of our best political betting sites in Canada is still posting 45th Canadian election odds despite the fact there's no Canadian election called yet. It will be on, or before, Oct. 25, 2025.
The Liberal Party of Canada has received three consecutive national mandates and has survived numerous confidence motions. However, by the looks of the odds, Canada will be in for a change when residents head to the polls.
The Liberal Party took over in 2015, winning a majority government while unseating the Conservative Party, which had led the way since 2006. The Liberals formed a minority government in 2019 and were re-elected for a third time and second consecutive minority in 2021.
Let's take a look at the Canadian federal election odds, which are available at our Ontario sports betting apps.
45th Canadian Federal Election odds
Market states: Settled on the Party of Prime Minister sworn in as a result of the 45th Canadian Federal Election. Verification via Elections Canada and Office of the Governor General.
Odds via bet365 as of Dec. 10, 2024
| Party | Odds (bet365) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives (CPC) | -900 | 90% | $1.11 |
| Liberal Party (LPC) | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| New Democratic (NDP) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Bloc Quebecois (BQ) | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Green (GPC) | +50000 | 0.20% | $5000 |
| People's Party of Canada (PPC) | +75000 | 0.13% | $7500 |
Which party is the 45th Canadian Federal Election odds favorite?
Conservative (CPC) (-900)
The Conservative Party of Canada is the front-runner to form the next government of Canada. While the CPC hasn't won a federal election since the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it had formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011) over the three previous elections.
With Pierre Poilievre leading the way, bet365 is currently giving the party an implied win percentage of 90%. Abacus Data polling in October shows the Conservatives leading by 22 points.
The last time the LPC or CPC (or one of the historical predecessors of the two parties) wasn't leading the country was prior to the 1921 election. Even the party that ruled from 1917 to 1921 primarily consisted of MPs who had previously served under the Conservative banner.
Best odds: -900 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 90%
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Where can I bet on the Canadian Federal election?
You can bet on the Canadian General Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our political betting sites in Canada. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
Odds often surface far in advance, with only the winning party market available at first. Closer to the election, other prop markets will emerge.
Canadian General Federal FAQs
Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?
The Conservative Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian General Election, with odds of -900 representing a 90% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian Federal election?
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian Federal election?
The next Canadian Federal election will be on or before Oct. 20, 2025.
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