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Kelsey Plum #10 of the Las Vegas Aces tries to steal the ball from Breanna Stewart #30 of the Seattle Storm in the third quarter of Game 2 of the 2022 WNBA Playoffs semifinals at Michelob ULTRA Arena on August 31, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images via AFP.

Underdogs have covered the spread in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between Las Vegas and Seattle. Find out which angles we like with our Aces-Storm Game 3 picks.

After splitting the first two games of their Semifinal Round series, the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm will renew hostilities in the Pacific Northwest on Sunday.

Much like the series opener, the Aces found themselves facing a sizeable deficit after the first quarter of Game 2. This time, however, Las Vegas was able to even the score going into the halftime break. That paved the way for the Aces to win the second half and even up this series at a game apiece.

If there were any doubts as to whether or not the Storm could keep pace with the most prolific offensive team in the WNBA, those were vanquished in the first two games of this series. Seattle has done an exceptional job of slowing things down and dictating the pace of play thus far.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s Game 3 between the Aces and Storm (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Aces vs. Storm Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 4, 3 p.m. ET
Coverage: ABC
Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA

Aces vs. Storm Odds Analysis

The betting market has held relatively stable with regard to Sunday’s matchup. Oddsmakers opened the line as a pick’em. While the Storm have taken enough sharp money to become a 1.5-point favorite, the current consensus still suggests that this game is a virtual toss-up.

There has been no line movement on the total to report. However, it is interesting that over 80% of all bets made on the total at DraftKings have elected to play the Under. Despite this lopsided ticket count disparity, the line continues to hold steady at 167.5.

Aces vs. Storm Picks

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Aces vs. Storm ATS Pick

Storm -1 (-105) ★★★

Unless something drastic changes, Seattle has shown a masterful ability to control the game flow of this series. Holding an Aces team that averaged over 90 points per game to less than 80 in back-to-back games is truly impressive. Had the Storm merely gotten some additional offensive production from its backcourt in Game 2, they could very well be going home with a 2-0 series lead.

The Aces have been impacted mightily by the absence of forward Dearica Hamby. With the potent duo of Breanna Stewart and Tina Charles, the Storm have had a decisive edge in the paint thus far. Hamby was upgraded to questionable ahead of Game 2 but failed to play in the game. A’ja Wilson was fantastic on Wednesday to help the Aces get the win, but it will be difficult to replicate and 33-point, 13-rebound performance.

Despite the fact that Stewart and Charles were the only players to score in double figures, the Storm only lost Game 2 by five. Meanwhile, the Aces’ lack of depth behind their star-studded starting lineup has been quite apparent going up against a much deeper Seattle team. 

Regardless of whether Hamby plays, the anticipation of positive regression from Jewell Lloyd and Sue Bird at the offensive end is enough to back the Storm as a one-point home favorite. The possibility of Gabby Williams returning from a concussion could also provide a boost to Seattle’s offense.

Aces vs. Storm O/U Pick

Under 167.5 (-110) ★★

In the first round, the Storm were matched up against Washington. All season long, the Mystics ranked as the top defensive team in the league and played at the slowest pace on average. Seattle successfully sped up the pace and earned a two-game series sweep. Both games flew over the betting game total.

The Storm have managed to implement a similar strategy in the first two games. This time, however, the primary objective has been to slow things down. The Aces ranked as the fastest team by pace in the WNBA all season long. They also led the league in offensive rating and points per game. 

The O/U for the first two games of this series closed roughly 12 points higher than it was for either game in the series. Both games have fallen well short of the number. In fact, Games 1 and 2 would have come up short of the much lower totals for Seattle’s series against Washington. And while oddsmakers have adjusted the Game 3 O/U by more than three points as a reaction to the two previous outcomes, it’s hard to feel confident that this is enough of an adjustment. After all, it’s not like the two teams shot that poorly in Game 2. Both sides were better than 40% from the field collectively.

Until the Aces prove capable of speeding things up and achieving closer to their 90.4 points per game average from the regular season, bettors are wise to stay locked in on the Under.

Aces vs. Storm Prop Pick

Young Over 12.5 points (-130 via FanDuel) ★★★★

During the regular season, Aces guard Jackie Young averaged 15.9 points per game. The postseason has been a much different story as she has produced only 12.0 points per contest through four games. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 WNBA Draft managed only 11 and six points in Games 1 and 2, respectively, of the ongoing Semifinal Round.

Young’s ability to bounce back offensively in Game 3 is hardly a question of her talent. She simply needs to regain her shooting touch and confidence. It certainly can’t get any worse than her 1-for-9 shooting performance on Wednesday. 

Relative to what Young achieved throughout the duration of the 2022 season, FanDuel’s scoring prop line of 12.5 offers bettors an excellent buy-low opportunity. If the Storm commit more defensive resources toward slowing down Wilson and Kelsey Plum, Young will presumably be one of the beneficiaries.

Where to Bet on Storm vs. Aces

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Aces-Storm picks made 9/3/2022 at 4:10 p.m. ET