Reds vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Aug. 28

The Chicago Cubs have dominated their head-to-head season series with the Cincinnati Reds, but my Reds vs. Cubs prediction takes a flyer on the road underdogs despite their roster shakeup yesterday. That means I’m calling for a Reds slugger to go deep, even if a Pete Crow-Armstrong Over is the top player prop of my MLB picks.

This is the only afternoon game on Friday’s slate with first pitch from Wrigley Field scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The starting pitching matchup is between Rhett Lowder and David Peterson, and the Cubs are -190 betting favorites.

⚾ Reds vs. Cubs picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.86 units

🏆 Who will win Reds vs. Cubs?

Chicago has struggled losing five of seven games, and is vulnerable against a Cincinnati team that is rested after yesterday’s off day.

Score prediction: Reds 5, Cubs 4

💰 Reds vs. Cubs prediction & best bet

Reds ML (+170)

Cincinnati is flying high coming off its largest ninth inning comeback in 68 years. It looks to continue that momentum against a Cubs team that has sputtered to a 2-5 record over the last seven games while being shut out twice in that span.

Eugenio Suarez and TJ Friedl were placed on waivers yesterday. But for this matchup, the team won’t miss Suarez and his 2-for-12 lifetime numbers against David Peterson. Even with his poor stats mixed in, current Reds hitters have combined for a .376/.432/.490 slash line and 25% extra-base hit rate against the Cubs southpaw. 

🔥 Best Reds vs. Cubs player prop bet

Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-160)

Crow-Armstrong has a 154 wRC+, the third-highest among qualifiers. A big reason for his breakout season that could result in MVP hardware is his improved plate discipline. 

From last season to this season, Crow-Armstrong has a plus-7.5% difference in walk percentage, minus-10.7% swing percentage, minus-13.5% zone swing percentage, minus-7.5% chase percentage, and minus-14.3% first-pitch swing percentage. All of those rank first among Statcast-qualified batters in terms of the difference between 2025 and 2026. For context, he led MLB in swing percentage and zone swing percentage in 2025 (min. 300 PA). 

In other areas of improvement, Crow-Armstrong has the fifth-highest increase in hard-hit rate and the sixth-highest increase in bat speed from last year. He went just 1-for-12 in a poor three-game series at Arizona, but still went Over this projected total once. I expect a big bounceback in the return to Wrigley Field.

💣 Reds vs. Cubs home run prediction

Elly De La Cruz to hit a home run (+610)

Elly De La Cruz had been Cincinnati’s leadoff hitter in every game since June 27, but manager Terry Francona changed things up after the team was held to one or fewer runs in nine of the previous 17 games. When De La Cruz was moved to the second spot, he responded with a three-hit day and the team exploded for 10 runs.

As a switch hitter, De La Cruz is in his much better split from the right side facing a southpaw. The shortstop has a whopping 1.007 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he hits a home run in every 15.5 at-bats in that split compared to one every 25.6 at-bats against righties.

🚀 Reds vs. Cubs same-game parlay

Backing Pete Crow-Armstrong to go Over 1.5 H/R/RBI like I expect would contradict Cincinnati’s moneyline wager too much for this same-game parlay. That is why I am lowering those expectations for him to just record a hit, like he has done in three of his last four home games, and seven of his previous 11 overall against divisional opponents. And given that De La Cruz has 19 extra-base hits among his 40 hits against southpaws on the season, I love the Over of his total bases as a more conservative third leg.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All 5MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡How I'm betting Reds vs. Cubs: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I took Chicago’s dominant 6-1 head-to-head record against Cincinnati into consideration when placing my Reds moneyline wager. But I felt the road underdogs were worthy of a flier given the Cubs’ overall struggles of late, and the fact that the Reds are 5-1 in Rhett Lowder’s last six outings, including winning the last three against divisional opponents.

📊 Live Reds vs. Cubs odds

Chicago is the most popular favorite on the slate as of Friday morning, attracting 73% of the moneyline wagers. But that near 3/1 split hasn't caused much movement in the lines, as the Cubs' price even stayed flat at some sites like BetMGM.

The total is at 8.5 runs at all the best sports betting sites except bet365, which is a half-run lower at 8. BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings all reached an O/U of 8 multiple times, but the 56/44 betting split in favor of the Over seems to keep winning out, forcing sportsbooks to move back to the higher number. But given how many times the total has moved back to 8, it suggests that 8.5 is likely the ceiling for the total before first pitch.

📈 Reds vs. Cubs betting trends

🚑 Reds vs. Cubs injuries

📺 How to watch Reds vs. Cubs

• Date: Friday, Aug. 28
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Reds starter: Rhett Lowder (5-8, 5.13 ERA)
• Cubs starter: David Peterson (7-7, 5.17 ERA)