Phillies vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Sept. 18

The Phillies will turn to Tim Mayza as they look to win their third consecutive game and move one step closer to a playoff berth, but my best Phillies vs. Mets prediction focuses on both of these teams' recent offensive struggles. The Mets are -123 favorites ahead of tonight's 7:10 p.m. ET game at Citi Field in Queens, N.Y.

 My MLB picks below also focus on which Phillies hitters have the edge against the Mets' starter, Zac Thornton. The game will air locally and stream on Apple TV.

⚾ Phillies vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 3.85 units

🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Mets?

I'm taking the Phillies to win this one. Earlier this season, Thornton pitched a 6-inning gem against the Phillies, but the Mets' offense has scored either one or zero runs in four of its last five games.

Score prediction: Phillies 3 Mets 2

💰 Phillies vs. Mets prediction & best bet

Under 8.5 (-115)

When Thornton faced the Phillies earlier this season, he struck out seven batters and allowed just one earned run in 6.0 innings. While he allowed six earned runs in his second-most recent start, he's allowed two or fewer in three of his last four. 

The Phillies' offense has been quiet over the last 15 days. It ranks 18th in runs scored, 21st in OPS, and 23rd in batting average. Mayza is expected to open for the Phillies, and he hasn't allowed a run in 13 of his last 14 appearances. 

🔥 Best Phillies vs. Mets player prop bet

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Harper has struggled against left-handed pitchers this season, hitting just .230 with four home runs. However, he is 2-for 3 against Thornton in his career, and he's hit safely in six of his last eight games. He has multiple hits in two of those games, and he's hit one home run and three doubles during that span.

Thornton has allowed at least seven hits in four of his last six starts, and he hasn't allowed fewer than five hits since Aug. 7.

💣 Phillies vs. Mets home run prediction

Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+270)

The price for this prop could be better, but there are a few reasons why oddsmakers are showing Schwarber so much respect tonight. He has hit 45 home runs this season, and he has a 16.4% barrel rate, the fourth-best in the league.

He's also been excellent against left-handed pitchers this season, with a .266/.532/.912 slash line. He's hit 15 home runs off lefties, and tonight he faces a pitcher who has allowed six home runs in his last three games.

📊 Live Phillies vs. Mets odds

While 68% of bets are on the Phillies to win, 52% of the handle is on the Mets. I expect the Mets to stay favored, but because of the discrepancy in records, I think the public will show the Phillies enough support to keep their moneyline around -105.

As for the total, the public loves the Over. Since I'm backing the Under, I recommend waiting to see if the price drops to -105 or +100 closer to first pitch, as the number doesn't seem like it's in any danger of dropping to 8.

📈 Phillies vs. Mets betting trends

🚑 Phillies vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Mets

• Date: Friday, Sept. 18
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• TV: Local
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Phillies starter: Tim Mayza (3-3, 3.06 ERA)
• Mets starter: Zac Thornton (4-5, 3.44 ERA)