Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Friday, Sept. 18
Just one-third on Friday’s Major League Baseball slate is between divisional rivals, but the only one of my best NRFI bets today that comes from a divisional rivalry happens to be my top NRFI pick.
Chicago Cubs righty Clay Holmes is amid an outstanding stretch thanks to his prowess for inducing ground balls, and he should match zeros with 15-game winner Chase Burns. I also look at two interleague matchups and make an NRFI and YRFI wager on each, especially because of Gerrit Cole’s inability to keep the baseball in the yard. It all looks to build off of yesterday's 2-0 sweep of our NRFI picks.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 18
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cubs vs. Reds NRFI (-125 via bet365) | 1u → 0.80u | Holmes should get back to his August form (1.55 ERA for the month) with better command of his pitches |
| Braves vs. Astros NRFI (-108 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.93u | Mahle has been one of Atlanta's best pitchers since acquiring him |
| Nationals vs. Cardinals NRFI (-125 via bet365) | 1u → 0.83u | Leahy’s struggles don’t begin until the second and third times through the batting order |
| Yankees vs. Diamondbacks YRFI (-104 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.96u | Cole has been prone to home runs of late |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.52 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💰 Best NRFI bet today
Cubs vs. Reds (6:40 ET)
- Clay Holmes (2.85 ERA) vs. Chase Burns (2.80 ERA)
- NRFI records: Cubs (81-72) vs. Reds (72-81)
Clay Holmes was brilliant in August, pitching to a 1.55 ERA and allowing zero runs in three of his five starts (two of which came against NL Central rivals). He has allowed 10 earned runs through 10 innings in September, largely because he has struggled with command.
I don’t expect Holmes to walk a season-high four batters again, as he still ranks in the 42nd percentile in walk rate even with those struggles. And Chase Burns has pitched to a 2.09 ERA and .195 OBA at home, while MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong has struggled with flamethrowers like him.
📡 SBR Edge: Not doing much with free passes
Though Cincinnati ranks eighth in walk rate, it hasn't done much outside of those free passes, as it also ranks dead-last in the Majors in on-base percentage.
🔥 More NRFI/YRFI picks today
Braves vs. Astros (8:10 ET)
- Tyler Mahle (3.91 ERA) vs. Peter Lambert (3.71 ERA)
- NRFI records: Braves (78-75) vs. Astros (70-83)
Chris Sale's regularly scheduled start was pushed back, paving the way for Tyler Mahle to start this series opener. He faces an Astros lineup that entered yesterday with a .272 batting average and .361 xwOBA in the first inning.
Mahle should be up to the task, especially since he has limited Yordan Alvarez to one single in six at-bats, and Jeremy Pena to one hit in seven at-bats. Overall, current Astros are batting .175 vs. Mahle, with one of their 10 hits going for extra bases.
Braves leadoff man Ronald Acuna Jr. recently batted .379 with nine extra-base hits over a 17-game stretch, but Peter Lambert has held opposing batters to a .225 average while allowing just 14 home runs in 145 2/3 innings.
Nationals vs. Cardinals (8:15 ET)
- Cade Cavalli (3.12 ERA) vs. Kyle Leahy (3.33 ERA)
- NRFI records: Nationals (77-76) vs. Cardinals (80-73)
Cade Cavalli has made quality starts in 11 of his last 12 outings. The lone time he didn’t make a quality start was when he threw four no-hit scoreless innings against the Marlins before leaving with an injury. He has been one of the lone bright spots for a Nationals team that has struggled in the second half, as Cavalli entered the month with the fifth-lowest ERA (1.95) among starting pitchers (min. 40 IP).
On the other side, Kyle Leahy has a solid 2.89 ERA and .180 OBA in the first inning this year. He doesn’t typically run into trouble until the fifth and sixth innings, when his OBA jumps to .367 and his OPS allowed is a .984 and 1.158, respectively.
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 ET)
- Gerrit Cole (3.67 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (2.62 ERA)
- YRFI records: Yankees (75-77) vs. Diamondbacks (81-72)
Gerrit Cole has allowed seven home runs over his last two appearances. That is tied for the most allowed in a two-start span in Yankees history (he had previously allowed 13 home runs over his prior 18 starts). He could be prone to another early long ball from Nolan Arenado, who has taken him deep three times and logged a 1.409 OPS in their head-to-head matchups.
With Aaron Judge back and healthy (check on his status as he left Wednesday's game with a leg injury), New York has averaged a full run more per game than when he was on the injured list. This is great value for the Yankees to score early against a pitcher as good as Eduardo Rodriguez, as they rank seventh in wRC+ and fourth in ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
We're backing the trends in several legs of this parlay, like Washington and St. Louis both being profitable NRFI teams, and Arizona being one of the most profitable YRFI teams in the league. The value is also too good to pass up with Gerrit Cole toeing the rubber, as he is amid the worst funk of his career from a home run perspective.
💵 Best NRFI parlay today
- Cubs-Reds NRFI
- Braves-Astros NRFI
- Nationals-Cardinals NRFI
- Yankees-Diamondbacks YRFI
Best odds: +1067 via bet365 (0.1u -> 1.1u)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
Related Articles
