Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Aug. 12

The St. Louis Cardinals look for their third series win in a row in today’s rubber match against the Philadelphia Phillies at Busch Stadium. But my Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction expects the road favorites to build an early lead on the strength of a long outing from Zack Wheeler. I also add a play on Brandon Marsh to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

Opposing Wheeler on the mound is Kyle Leahy, with first pitch scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Phillies are a -160 betting favorite. 

⚾ Phillies vs. Cardinals picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Cardinals?

Philadelphia has won five of its last seven road series, and a big edge in the starting pitching matchup should see it prevent St. Louis from winning its third consecutive series.

Score prediction: Phillies 6, Cardinals 4

💰 Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction & best bet

Phillies F5 ML (-160)

The Phillies are 1-3 in Zack Wheeler’s last four starts. But all three losses have come by one run, and they had an early lead in two of those. But I’m buying low on Philadelphia behind the righty, as it won six consecutive starts of his with a plus-24 run differential before the cold spell.

St. Louis has won two of seven series since the All-Star Break, and one of those was against the NL-worst Rockies. The Cardinals only have a better record than Colorado in the NL since July 5 (13-21), and I expect their downturn to continue.

🔥 Best Phillies vs. Cardinals player prop bet

Zack Wheeler Over 18.5 outs recorded (+140)

Wheeler has two outings of three or fewer innings in two of his last three starts, but one was a product of a rain delay. Otherwise, the righty has recorded 18-plus outs in three of six and half of his last eight outings, and a tired bullpen should be the big reason why this Over cashes again. 

After Andrew Painter took a no-hit bid into the sixth inning on Monday, the Phillies mopped up the game with the only two relievers Don Mattingly said were available. He also said catcher Garrett Stubbs would have had to pitch if it went to extra innings.

Both Jhoan Duran and Orion Kerkering pitched in four of five games entering the week, and Brooks Raley had pitched in back-to-back contests. With others on the IL, the team needs a long outing from Wheeler to continue resting those arms.

💣 Phillies vs. Cardinals home run prediction

Brandon Marsh to hit a home run (+930)

Kyle Leahy has been pummeled by left-handed batters this season. In that split, he has allowed a .320/.394/.482 slash line, and lefties have accounted for seven of his 12 home runs surrendered. With Bryce Harper dealing with soreness and Kyle Schwarber’s odds being too short for a player who has homered in just two of 27 games, I’m looking to Marsh for better value.

Marsh needs one more home run to set a single-season high. If he hits one today, that would come in 18 fewer games than his other 16-home-run season in 2024. His power surge is a byproduct of his career-high 32.3% pull rate and a launch angle sweet spot rate that ranks in the 100th percentile.

🚀 Phillies vs. Cardinals same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in increasing the chances of Philadelphia’s chances of leading after five innings. Considering Marsh was dropped to seventh in the batting order on Monday and hasn’t homered in 20 games, I am going the more conservative route with him just to record a hit as my last leg of this SGP. Marsh has hit safely in eight of his last 10 starts.

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I documented Philadelphia’s bullpen concerns in my analysis of the Wheeler player prop. Its overall workload are big reasons why its relievers rank 19th in ERA and 13th in xFIP since July 15. That has me taking relievers out of the equation with the Phillies first five innings moneyline, especially since those odds are nearly identical to the full game moneyline odds at most top sports betting sites.

I also made the decision to back Wheeler’s alternate outs recorded total of 18.5 at plus-money odds versus the more traditional O/U of 17.5, as the Over at the lower number was juiced as high as -190 (65.52% implied odds).

📊 Live Phillies vs. Cardinals odds

📈 Phillies vs. Cardinals betting trends

🚑 Phillies vs. Cardinals injuries

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Cardinals

• Date: Wednesday, August 12
• First pitch: 2:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Busch Stadium (St. Louis)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Phillies starter: Zack Wheeler (10-3, 2.69 ERA)
• Cardinals starter: Kyle Leahy (8-4, 3.45 ERA)