⚾ Mets vs. Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, May 9

My Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction buys low on Arizona righty Merrill Kelly’s slow start to the season, and expects him to lead Arizona to a win against New York and its struggling lineup. While I do find value backing a Mets slugger to go yard as part of my MLB picks, I'm also expecting Corbin Carroll to snap out of a mini slump and be a catalyst for Arizona's offense.

⚾ Mets vs. Diamondbacks picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.81 units

🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Diamondbacks?

The Mets recently turned in their second three-game winning streak of the season, but I’m not buying a New York resurgence considering it stockpiled wins against the lowly Angels and Rockies.

Score prediction: Diamondbacks 6, Mets 5

💰 Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction & best bet

Diamondbacks ML (+100)

Merrill Kelly’s 9.95 ERA is the highest of any starting pitcher toeing the rubber today. While that has contributed to three consecutive losses and the team being outscored 32-11 in that span, two of those losses came against the three-time NL champion Brewers and a Cubs team amid an historic home winning streak at Wrigley Field.

I’m taking a glass half full approach on Kelly when facing a Mets lineup that ranks 28th in BABIP, and 29th in wRC+ and wOBA. Arizona has also taken care of business against teams with losing records, going 12-7 in that split. 

🔥 Best Mets vs. Diamondbacks player prop bet

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-134)

Corbin Carroll recently endured a three-game hitless drought and started May 1-for-19 with five strikeouts. But I’m buying that a multi-hit game in which he also homered in Thursday’s series finale against the Pirates will get him going.

Just last month, Carroll slashed .300/.411/.563 with 16 runs scored and half of his hits going for extra bases. And while Clay Holmes is off to a fantastic start this season, he also is due significant regression with a 3.78 xERA that is much higher than his actual 1.69 ERA. That difference is likely a product of whiff and strikeout rates that rank in the 30th percentile or worse. 

I expect Carroll to be a big part of an offense that ranked sixth in ISO, eighth in slugging, and 12th in wRC+ in home games entering this series.

💣 Mets vs. Diamondbacks home run prediction

Carson Benge to hit a home run (+825)

Based on Merrill Kelly allowing at least one home run in all four starts this season, I’m compelled to back a Mets slugger to go deep.

Kelly allowed three home runs in 4 ⅓ innings at home this season, and has been torched for a .875 slugging percentage and 1.375 OPS against left-handed batters this season. While conventional wisdom then points to Juan Soto to go deep, given that he’s also done so once in 19 at-bats against Kelly, I’m opting for more value with Carson Benge.

Benge slashed just .136/.219/.197 over his first 21 games. But since April 23 entering this series, Benge has heated up with a .303/.361/.545 slash line with four extra-base hits in 36 plate appearances.

🚀 Mets vs. Diamondbacks same-game parlay

Corbin Carroll turning in a big day at the plate should go a long way in helping Arizona win outright. After all, the team is 9-2 the last 11 times he has gone Over this projected total. Since my Benge home run pick would lower the Diamondbacks' win probability, I am swapping that out for a safer third leg for this same-game parlay by simply backing him to record a base hit and extend his five-game hitting streak.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Mets vs. Diamondbacks: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

The Mets are as hot as a 15-23 team can be, winning five of their last seven games. But those two series wins came against the Angels and Rockies, and I believe the Diamondbacks will put up more of a fight tonight and not let New York win this series easily on their homefield.

Thus, the fact that I'm getting plus-money odds wagering on the home underdogs makes me feel better about the balance of bets I have and allows me to take a more conservative approach with the Corbin Carroll player props wager that has 57.26% implied odds.

📊 Live Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds

The line is moving away from New York (the biggest movement was from -130 to -120 at BetMGM) despite the Mets getting 53% of the early wagers. As a result, Arizona is one of the more popular underdog plays, and the reaction by oddsmakers to move the line suggests sharp play as well.

The O/U has ticked up from an opening number of 8.5 at several top sports betting sites to 9 across the market. With the juice as high as -122 (54.95% implied odds) and 56% of the wagers backing the Under, we could see the line get back to 8.5 at some point today.

📈 Mets vs. Diamondbacks betting trends

🚑 Mets vs. Diamondbacks injuries

📺 How to watch Mets vs. Diamondbacks

• Date: Saturday, May 9
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Chase Field (Phoenix)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Mets starter: Clay Holmes (4-2, 1.69 ERA)
• Diamondbacks starter: Merrill Kelly (1-3, 9.95 ERA)