⚾ Mariners vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, April 14
We've got a showdown between West Coast teams from different leagues, and my Mariners vs. Padres prediction believes the AL will have the upper hand in this one.
It's a pretty tantalizing pitching matchup tonight at Petco Park, as Michael King will take the hill for the home team and get the game underway around 9:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). Opposing him will be AL Cy Young contender Bryan Woo.
The Mariners are roughly -120 betting favorites, and I think they rebound quite nicely from Woo's last start.
⚾ Mariners vs. Padres picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mariners moneyline (-120 via Caesars) | 1u → 1.83u | With Woo on the mound, they're the superior team |
| Michael King Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110 via bet365) | 1u → 1.91u | Managing just 8.1 K/9 this season |
| Cal Raleigh home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.2u → 1.02u | Should begin to find his footing sooner rather than later |
Total wagered: 2.2 units | Max profit: 2.56 units
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🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Padres?
With Woo on the mound, I expect the Mariners to win a low-scoring affair. He owns a 1.50 ERA across three starts, and he'll be looking to bounce back from a relatively disappointing outing in which the fifth inning undid what was a spectacular effort to that point.
I do, however, think King holds his own and limits the Mariners, leading to a result hovering around the score listed below.
Score prediction: Mariners 4, Padres 2
💰 Mariners vs. Padres prediction & best bet
Mariners moneyline (-120)
This game is tightly priced for a reason, as Woo owns a career ERA of 3.13 while King's is 3.24. These are two very talented pitchers, and both are capable of shutting down the opposition.
However, I give the Mariners the upper hand because King's peripherals haven't been especially impressive this year, and I consider Woo to be one of the best pitchers in the AL. I don't think there's a particular edge on this price, as I make the Mariners closer to -115 favorites on the road, but if I had to pick a sick, I'd go with Seattle.
🔥 Best Mariners vs. Padres player prop bet
Michael King Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110)
King racked up strikeouts in his first season as a starter, but he experienced a decline last year and is all the way down to 8.10 per nine this year. His CSW is also down, from 31.3% two years ago to 27.9% this season.
King is projected for right around 4.6 strikeouts today, and based on that, we're getting just better than 31% +EV on this. I'd play this to odds as short as -135, and Pinnacle - generally considered a sharp book - is already at -143.
💣 Mariners vs. Padres home run prediction
Cal Raleigh home run (+410)
Cal Raleigh has been horrendous this season, with just a .520 OPS and two home runs. However, this is the same guy who nearly took down Aaron Judge for the AL MVP last year thanks to 60 bombs. I still have confidence in him, and I'm backing him to find his footing a bit tonight.
Raleigh has one of the better home run projections of all players today, and based on it, we're getting roughly 30% +EV on this bet.
🚀 Mariners vs. Padres same-game parlay
I'm combining the two players I've bet on in this game and parlaying them with the Mariners moneyline. The implied probability of these odds is 10%, so I'm going with just 0.1 units on this one.
💵 Mariners vs. Padres same-game parlay today
- Mariners moneyline (-122)
- Michael King Under 5.5 strikeouts (-129)
- Cal Raleigh home run (+400)
Best odds: +900 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 1u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-100 | -22.71 units ❌ | -35.9% ❌ |
| Home runs | 7-44 | -5.23 units ❌ | -32.3% ❌ |
| Strikeouts | 13-25 | -11.90 units ❌ | -32.4% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-21 | -0.97 units ❌ | -44.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Mariners vs. Padres: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets and 0.33 units on my of home run bets, which you can also find on X.
If a player prop bet doesn't quite meet my criteria but still looks good, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units. The same goes for my home run bets, as I'll drop my wager from 0.33 units to 0.20.
📊 Live Mariners vs. Padres odds
I'm riding with the public on this one, as 63% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings are also on the Mariners. They're priced at -122 there, while the longest odds are -120. Meanwhile, the total for this game is set at 7, and the majority of bettors at DraftKings are riding with the Over, which is somewhat surprising with two very good pitchers on the mound.
📈 Mariners vs. Padres betting trends
| Mariners | Statistic | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | W-L record | 10-6 |
| 7-10 | Run line record | 10-5 |
| 8-9 | O/U record | 8-7 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 8-2 |
| 2.95 | Team ERA | 3.41 |
| .208 | Team batting avg. | .227 |
| .657 | OPS | .695 |
🚑 Mariners vs. Padres injuries
📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Padres
- Date: Tuesday, April 14
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB TV
- Mariners starter: Bryan Woo (0-1, 1.50 ERA)
- Padres starter: Michael King (1-1, 3.24 ERA)
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