MLB Home Run Prop Picks for Thursday: Vogelbach Bash on Tap

Shopping for the best prices in the MLB home run props market across our best MLB betting sites will provide bettors with one of the largest edges you can find. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and offers his top MLB home run prop picks based on the best MLB odds for Thursday.

Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Thursday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB home run props

• Daniel Vogelbach Over 0.5 home runs (+650 via DraftKings) ⭐
• Anthony Santander Over 0.5 home runs (+430 via FanDuel) ⭐
• Ryan Mountcastle Over 0.5 home runs (+475 via PointsBet) ⭐

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Thursday’s MLB home run prop picks

Daniel Vogelbach Over 0.5 home runs (+650 via DraftKings) ⭐

It’s been a power-starved start for Daniel Vogelbach. He’s only left the yard once, and his .116 ISO and 25.0 hard-hit rate are well below last year’s respective .194 and 33.0 marks. 

I’m eyeing this matchup against Washington Nationals right-handed starter Trevor Williams as an opportunity for Vogelbach to power up Thursday.

Williams has surrendered a 2.0 HR/9 and 31.1 hard-hit rate to lefty hitters as a starter the past two years, and Vogelbach boasts a career .217 ISO against righties during his career.

The difference in odds checks out as a positive expected value of 37% and an additional $20 in profit on a winning $10 dollar ticket. If you’re looking for a potential pivot play, Vogelbach is priced at +170 to go Over 1.5 total bases through FanDuel.

Anthony Santander Over 0.5 home runs (+430 via FanDuel) ⭐

Detroit Tigers lefty Joey Wentz has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard with a 0.91 HR/9 through his first career 11 starts.

I think he’s set for a bit of a reverse in fortunes Thursday, though. This will be his second consecutive start against the Baltimore Orioles, and as a result, I’m looking to Anthony Santander’s excellent numbers against southpaws.

The outfielder has posted a .237 ISO and 36.9 hard-hit rate against lefties over the past two seasons, and he’s also ripe for a rebound at the plate. It’s been nine games since Santander’s last homer, and he’s gone 7-for-30 with just three extra-base hits during the slump. 

The odds advantage provided by placing this bet through FanDuel instead of Caesars is one of the largest I’ve seen this season. The +430 number has a positive expected value of 80% compared to the +195 price Caesars is hanging. It’s a profit difference of $23.50 on a winning $10 bet, too.

Ryan Mountcastle Over 0.5 home runs (+475 via PointsBet) ⭐

Ryan Mountcastle is another Oriole in a funk at the dish, and it’s been 11 games and 48 plate appearances since his last extra-base hit. Still, he sports a .231 ISO and 38.4 hard-hit rate against lefties dating back to his first full season in the league in 2021.

Again, I think the recent at-bats against Wentz shift the advantage to Mountcastle’s favor.

The long odds through PointsBet present a positive expected value of 69% over the egregious +240 price through Caesars. This is an incredible difference. In dollars and cents it checks out at an extra $23.50 of profit on a winning $10 bet.

Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.

MLB home run prop picks made 4/27/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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• FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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