Brewers vs. Orioles Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Sept. 20

The Orioles are four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, while the Brewers have a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the NL. My Brewers vs. Orioles prediction expects Baltimore to continue to fall out of the AL Wild Card race as Jacob Misiorowski and Brandon Young square off today.

My MLB picks include Brewers -1.5 (-115), Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 total bases (+240), and Jake Bauers Over 0.5 home runs (+360). First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (Peacock), with the Brewers listed as a -210 betting favorite.

⚾ Brewers vs. Orioles picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 3.21 units | Max profit: 4.5 units

🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Orioles?

I like the Brewers to beat the Orioles 5-3 today in Baltimore. Not only are the Brewers the more talented team overall, but they're also sending out the -5000 betting favorite in the NL Cy Young odds: Misiorowski. The Orioles' disadvantage at starting pitcher should be too much for them to overcome.

Score prediction: Brewers 5, Orioles 3

💰 Brewers vs. Orioles prediction & best bet

Brewers -1.5 (-115 via Hard Rock Bet)

With the exception of Pete Alonso - who is 0-for-2 with one K against Misiorowski - the Orioles have yet to face the best pitcher in the NL this season. And I don't think that's going to work to their advantage. Misiorowski ranks in the 100th percentile in pitching run value (48) and K percentage (38.2%).

And the Brewers' offense isn't bad, either. Milwaukee ranks second in MLB with 5.15 runs per game, compared to the Orioles, who rank 14th with 4.47 per game. Brewers -1.5 (-115 via Hard Rock Bet) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.

🔥 Best Brewers vs. Orioles player prop bet

Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 total bases (+240 via BetMGM)

While most of the Orioles will likely struggle against Misiorowski, this isn't a horrible matchup for Basallo.

Misiorowski throws fastballs 79.1% of the time against left-handed hitters, which is just fine for Basallo, as he has posted a .491 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against that pitch type this season.

Yes, Misiorowski is among the best fastball pitchers in the league, but these odds aren't properly accounting for Basallo's pitch tracking stats. Basallo Over 1.5 total bases (+240 via BetMGM) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.

💣 Brewers vs. Orioles home run prediction

Jake Bauers Over 0.5 home runs (+360 via BetRivers)

Not only has Bauers homered in three of his last nine games, but he also has a pitching matchup that he'll likely be able to take advantage of today.

Bauers has posted a .523 xSLG against fastballs this season, and that's Young's most-used pitch type against left-handed hitting. Young throws fastballs 53% of the time to lefties, and with Bauers ranking in the 92nd percentile in barrel rate (14%), the Brewers first baseman should be able to hit one into the stands.

Bauers Over 0.5 home runs (+360 via BetRivers) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.

📊 Live Brewers vs. Orioles odds

I'm more concerned with line movement at market-making books that don't limit winners. Circa opened the Brewers at -199 on the moneyline, and they have since moved to -198, so there's not much to see here overall. There has been no movement on the run line or the total at Circa, as the Brewers are still a -1.5 (-115) favorite with the total set at 7.5 (Over: -115 | Under: -105).

🚑 Brewers vs. Orioles injuries

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Orioles

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 20
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore)
• TV: Peacock
• Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (15-5, 1.89 ERA)
• Orioles starter: Brandon Young (9-4, 3.65 ERA)