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MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Sunday, Sept. 20

My best home run predictions today break down the best HR bets for Sunday's MLB slate.

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: September 20, 2026 10:08 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Pictured: Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) bats as we break down our home run predictions today. Photo by Jerome Miron / Imagn Images.

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We're heading into another fully loaded 15-game MLB slate Sunday. My home run predictions today feature some of the most reliable power hitters at the plate, attempting to snap a multi-day cold streak.

Yordan Alvarez starts my MLB home run picks for Sunday's betting card. The Astros' DH faces Martin Perez, so it's a lefty on lefty matchup, but I'm banking on Alvarez's 100th percentile xSLG rate (.638) to find the bleachers in the hitter-friendly confines of Daikin Park.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 20

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

💣 Home run pick	💵 Units	📝 Notes
Yordan Alvarez to homer (+350 via BetMGM)	0.3 units to win 1.05 units	Alvarez has hit 23 of 40 home runs at Daikin Park this year.
Alec Burleson to homer (+375 via BetMGM)	0.27 units to win 1.01 units	Burleson has logged 20 of 23 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2026.
Corey Seager to homer (+421 via BetMGM)	0.25 units to win 1.05 units	Seager has hit 5 home runs in September.

Total wagered: 0.82 units | Max profit: +3.11 units

💣 Best home run predictions & odds today

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+350)

Alvarez is among the top home run hitters in the league this year. He's hit 23 of his 40 home runs at Daikin Park.

His metrics are at the very top of the charts in elite territory. This season, Alvarez ranks 99th in avg exit velo (94.3), 98th in barrel percentage (16.2), and 96th in hard-hit percentage (53.4).

This bet is less about the opposing pitcher and more about Alvarez's impressive power at the plate. Alvarez has 2 home runs in his previous 5 contests for the Astros.

Go to BetMGM to bet on Alvarez's home run prop at +350 odds.

Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

📡 SBR Edge: History Repeats

Alvarez has hit 1 home run against Perez in 16 career at-bats.

🔥 More home run predictions today

Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+375)

We're headed to Busch Stadium to back one of the Cardinals' top sluggers in a plus-matchup. Burleson faces Jake Irvin, a right-handed pitcher, whom the left-handed hitter tends to mash, having recorded 20 of 23 home runs against righties in 2026.

Irvin has allowed 6 home runs across his past 5 starts for the Nationals. Burleson has 1 home run in his previous 4 appearances, while ranked in the 98th percentile for xSLG (.520) and 92nd in hard-hit percentage (50.2) this season.

7 of Burleson's 8 home runs at Busch Stadium have been against right-handed pitching. Irvin bottoms out in the fourth percentile for barrel rate (10.9) and hard-hit rate (45.1) allowed.

Stay on BetMGM to bet Burleson's home run prop at +375 odds.

Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Corey Seager (+421)

September has been a good month for Seager. The lefty has hit 5 home runs this month, and now he'll face Spencer Arrighetti, who has surrendered 4 home runs across his past 5 starts for the Blue Jays.

Arrighetti is a right-handed pitcher, giving Seager an edge at the plate. Globe Life Field is not a hitter-friendly ballpark, but Seager's packing plenty of power to go yard, ranked in the 93rd percentile for barrel percentage (14.4) and 89th in xSLG (.484).

12 of Seager's 18 home runs have been against right-handed pitchers this season. Arrighetti is allowing a 9.1 barrel percentage (22nd percentile).

Go to DraftKings to bet on Seager's home run prop at +421 odds.

Time: 2:35 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

💵 Best MLB home run parlay today

Yordan Alvarez (+350)
Alec Burleson (+375)
Corey Seager (+360)

Best odds: +9732 via BetMGM (0.1 units to win 9.73 units)

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Written by:
Matt MacKay

Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.