Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Sunday, Sept. 20
Even though several aces are toeing the rubber today, my best NRFI bets today are split with a couple of YRFI plays as I grow worried about some veteran pitchers’ workloads this late in the season.
I’m likely on the contrarian side with YRFI wagers on games where Sandy Alcantara and Cristopher Sanchez are toeing the rubber. But I round those bets out with NRFI wagers in games involving the two teams looking to track down an AL Central division title.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 20
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Athletics vs. Guardians NRFI (-125 via bet365) | 1 unit to win 0.8 units | Cleveland is the AL’s most profitable NRFI team |
| Phillies vs. Mets YRFI (+104 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 1.04 units | Sanchez is amid his worst stretch of the season |
| Tigers vs. White Sox NRFI (-125 via bet365) | 1 unit to win 0.8 units | Melton’s late-game numbers should start to match his numbers the first time through the order |
| Marlins vs. Padres YRFI (-110 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units | Alcantara’s over usage should catch up to him |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +3.55 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Athletics vs. Guardians (1:40 ET)
- Jack Perkins (6.14 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (3.78 ERA)
- NRFI records: Athletics (71-84) vs. Guardians (86-69)
At one point from July 9 to early September, Gavin Williams led MLB in strikeout rate (min. 40 IP) by a wide margin, as his 42.2% rate far exceeded Chris Sale’s second-best rate (35.3%). He started relying much more on his four-seam fastball, a pitch he threw 21.9% before July 9 and 35.1% after.
This wager seemingly comes down to Jack Perkins limiting Cleveland’s bats. The righty has been a victim of Sutter Health Park, with an ERA more than two runs better and an OBA 49 points better in road starts than at home.
📡 SBR Edge: Williams the strikeout king
No pitcher has more double-digit strikeout games than Gavin Williams (11), which is even one more than MLB strikeout leader Jacob Misiorowski has (10).
🔥 More NRFI/YRFI picks today
Phillies vs. Mets (1:10 ET)
- Cristopher Sanchez (2.93 ERA) vs. Jonah Tong (3.43 ERA)
- YRFI records: Phillies (82-73) vs. Mets (79-76)
Not only does Philadelphia have question marks in its rotation with Jesus Luzardo dealing with a shoulder injury, but all of a sudden Cristopher Sanchez has not pitched like the ace he was for much of the season.
The southpaw has pitched to a 6.87 ERA over his last three starts, with the Phillies losing two of those three (those two losses match their total from Sanchez’s previous 13 starts).
On the other side, Jonah Tong has pitched two clean first innings this year, but Bryce Harper looms as a threatening bat. In his first 10 games against the Mets this year, Harper batted .447 with seven extra-base hits and 11 RBI.
Tigers vs. White Sox (2:10 ET)
- Troy Melton (2.52 ERA) vs. Davis Martin (3.96 ERA)
- NRFI records: Tigers (78-78) vs. White Sox (71-85)
I’m not about to declare Troy Melton as a victim of wearing down due to a heavy workload (110 ⅔ innings). After all, his poor 7.24 September ERA was preceded by a 2.10 ERA over 30 innings in August.
Melton is a hard pitcher to prepare for, as he is one of two in the Majors with a whiff rate of 19% or higher on six different pitches (min. 100 IP). I’m buying low on Melton even though his numbers get better later in games. He has a .248 OBA the first time through the batting order, followed by a .182 OBA the second time and a .224 OBA the third time facing an opposing hitter.
Marlins vs. Padres (4:10 ET)
- Sandy Alcantara (3.84 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (4.58 ERA)
- YRFI records: Marlins (64-90) vs. Padres (64-90)
Miami’s usage of ace Sandy Alcantara even when its playoff chances seemed bleak at best was puzzling. The Marlins called upon Alcantara for his first career save just two days after he labored through a 101-pitch and five-inning start. Alcantara’s league-leading 206 innings and 861 batters faced have already caught up to him, as he has pitched to an 8.27 ERA through 16 ⅓ innings in September.
Alcantara also faces a Padres lineup that entered the weekend averaging 5.7 runs per game amid an 11-2 stretch. That is why I’m backing the YRFI in spite of Walker Buehler’s respectable 3.60 first-inning ERA this season (which worsens to 5.10 and 8.46 over the second and third innings, respectively).
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
This same-game parlay strikes the perfect balance between starting pitchers whose workload is troubling (Alcantara) and those that should rebound relative to success earlier in the season (Melton). I’m also not letting a pitcher’s reputation influence some plays and am instead basing wagers off recent performances like in Sanchez’s case.
💵 Best NRFI parlay today
- Athletics-Guardians NRFI
- Phillies-Mets YRFI
- Tigers-White Sox NRFI
- Marlins-Padres YRFI
Best odds: +1081 via bet365 (0.1 units to win 1.08 units)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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