Braves vs. Astros Game 1 World Series Picks: ATL Strikes First

The Fall Classic begins Tuesday night in Houston. Find out why we like Atlanta, behind Charlie Morton, at plus money in our Game 1 Braves and Astros World Series picks.

The World Series is finally here, with the Atlanta Braves visiting the Houston Astros for Game 1 at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday night. The Astros finished with the better record in the regular season, meaning they will have home-field advantage and host Games 1, 2, 6, 7 in Houston.

Around the world, most fans are hoping the Braves can pull off an upset due to the Astros' sign-stealing scandal, but Atlanta enters this series as an underdog, coming in at +120 for the opener.

Here are my picks and predictions for the World Series matchup between the Braves and Astros (odds via DraftKings).

Braves vs. Astros Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, October 26, 8:08 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX

Braves vs. Astros Odds Analysis

The Astros opened up as a -136 favorite but can be found anywhere around -130 to -140 currently. In the World Series, there will be plenty of discrepancies and disagreements so make sure to shop around for the best odds on the bet you’re looking to make.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 8 and hasn’t moved since. However, you can get Under 8 at +100 on DraftKings but Over 8.5 +100 on SugarHouse.

Braves vs. Astros Picks

Atlanta (+120)Over 8 (-120)Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

Braves vs. Astros Predictions

Braves (+120)

The Astros will send out Framber Valdez for his fourth start of the postseason. Before his last outing against the Red Sox, Valdez allowed seven runs on 14 hits in seven innings of work. He was getting a bit unlucky with ground balls becoming hits, but he also walked four in those seven frames.

Valdez was superb in his last start but still struggled against lefties, and the last 20 LHBs who have faced him have combined for a .402 wOBA and .316 ISO.

The Braves, with a designated hitter, will have three lefties in the lineup and an additional position player as well, adding length to an already dangerous lineup.

Atlanta also has a .215 ISO and wOBA of .439 against lefties in the last 30 days and that’s enough to get me excited about the potential of the Braves tonight.

Plus, with Charlie Morton on the mound for this series-opening matchup, I’d much rather back a pitcher who has been in this situation before in comparison to taking a young arm in Valdez who can lose command a lot. Give me Atlanta at plus money for our Game 1 Braves and Astros World Series picks.

Over 8 (-120)

As stated above, Valdez can lose command and has walked 10.3 percent of the batters he has faced throughout the entire season. He’s also giving up over 61 percent hard contact in the last 30 days and if he can’t get strikeouts, some ground balls are going to find holes and become base hits for the Braves.

On the other hand, Morton has allowed two runs in each of his first three starts during the playoffs. The Astros don’t have the best numbers against righties in the last 30 days but have plenty of guys hitting above average including Yordan Alvarez, who has a .297 ISO and .429 wOBA in his last 43 plate appearances against righties.

I like Morton to allow two or three runs in this outing while Valdez will likely exit early due to allowing a home run or two with runners on base. A 4-4 game late will get us a win in this spot and both the Braves and Astros are absolutely capable of scoring four-plus runs each.

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

Freeman has been much better against righties throughout his career but there’s reason to believe that the former MVP and left-handed slugger could smack Valdez for a couple of base hits or hit one for extra bases.

The first baseman has an ISO of .389 with a wOBA of .437 in the last 22 plate appearances against southpaws.

If you want someone other than Freeman, I also like Eddie Rosario, another hot left-handed bat who could do serious damage against Valdez from the left side. Rosario, the NLCS MVP, has hit safely in all 10 postseason games and is sporting a .474/.524/.789 slash line. His Over 1.5 total bases prop can be had at +165 odds.

Picks made on 10/26/2021 at 7:12 a.m. ET.