MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Sept. 14)
We're getting a solid 10-game MLB slate Monday, with some prime matchups to assess with my home run predictions today. Lawrence Butler went deep to cash a +490 home run prop Sunday, so let's build off that win during tonight's games.
My latest MLB home run picks start with Kazuma Okamoto. The Blue Jays third baseman has been red hot at the plate, recording four home runs in September, dwarfing the rest of Toronto's lineup with 32 homers in 2026. Okamoto faces Tigers starter Troy Melton, who has allowed three home runs in his previous two starts.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 14
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kazuma Okamoto (+480 via DraftKings) | 0.25u β 1.2u | Okamoto has 4 home runs in September, while logging 22 of 32 home runs against right-handed pitchers. |
| Bryce Eldridge (+610 via DraftKings) | 0.25u β 1.52u | Eldridge ranks 95th in hard-hit percentage (52.5) and 94th for avg exit velo (92.7) in 2026. |
| Jake McCarthy (+760 via DraftKings) | 0.25u β 1.9u | McCarthy has hit 11 of 15 home runs against right-handed pitching, including 6 of 9 home runs at Coors Field against righties. |
Total wagered: 0.75 units | Max profit: 4.62 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+480)
Okamoto has been dominant against right-handed pitching in 2026, finding the bleachers on 22 of his 32 home runs in these matchups. Now, Okamoto returns to Rogers Centre, where he's logged 2 home runs in his last 3 games.
The Japanese slugger ranks in the 90th percentile for barrel percentage (13.7) and sits 77th for avg exit velo (90.6) and 78th for xSLG (.451) this season. Okamoto will face right-handed starter Troy Melton, who has surrendered 3 home runs in his last two starts for the Tigers.
Go to DraftKings to bet on Okamoto's home run prop at +480 odds.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Melton down
Troy Melton has allowed four home runs in his last two combined road starts.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Bryce Eldridge (+610)
The Giants' season is virtually over, but they still have young talent in their lineup, particularly with Eldridge. He's a lefty, so an early matchup against the Cardinals' southpaw Quinn Mathews could be difficult during Eldridge's first couple of at-bats.
However, Eldridge has hit 6 of his 16 home runs against left-handed pitching, despite only logging 121 at-bats compared to 255 at-bats against righties. He's a textbook slugger, ranked in the 94th and 95th percentile for avg exit velo (92.7) and hard-hit percentage (52.5) this season.
Mathews just gave up 2 home runs in his last start against the Giants, including a 1st inning home run to Eldridge at Oracle Park. Eldridge will take Mathews deep again at Busch Stadium tonight.
Stay on DraftKings to bet on Eldridge's home run prop at +610 odds.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jake McCarthy(+760)
There's nothing like taking home run bets at Coors Field. The high altitude enhances the ability of hitters to go yard, and now we've got a prime matchup for the Rockies' lineup against Casey Mize.
McCarthy has mashed 11 of 15 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2026. He's a lefty at the plate, recording 6 of 9 home runs at Coors Field against righties.
Mize has allowed 7 home runs in his last four starts for the Padres. The last time McCarthy played at home, he found the bleachers. He's also ranked in the 87th percentile for launch angle sweet-spot percentage (38.4).
DraftKings continues to offer the best lines, so bet on McCarthy to hit a home run at +760 odds.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | 1+ home runs | +290 |
| Spencer Jones | Yankees | 1+ home runs | +450 |
| Pete Alonso | Orioles | 1+ home runs | +270 |
| Samuel Basallo | Orioles | 1+ home runs | +475 |
| Kyle Teel | White Sox | 1+ home runs | +900 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kazuma Okamoto (+480)
- Bryce Eldridge (+610)
- Jake McCarthy (+760)
Best odds: +35315 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 35.31u)
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