MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Monday, June 29

With more than a dozen games on the slate Monday, my home run predictions today are centered around four All-Star sluggers with advantageous matchups. 

From Willson Contreras to Nick Kurtz, my MLB home run picks are all about the pitching matchups tonight.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 29

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today

Home run pick: Willson Contreras (+409)

This is as much about Contreras' hot bat (17 homers this season) as it is about his matchup with Washington Nationals pitcher Miles Mikolas. Mikolas, who has given up the 12th-most home runs in MLB this season (16), lives by three pitches, and Contreras has been smoking two of them this year.

The Nats' right-hander uses his sinker 25.6% of the time and his slider 20.5% of the time.

Conteras has been obliterating sinkers this year to the tune of an .803 SLG, while sliders are hit next most successful pitch to mash (.529 SLG).

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

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Home run pick: Brandon Lowe (+296)

Few pitchers have allowed as many home runs as Aaron Nola. The Philadelphia Phillies' pitcher has given up 97 dingers in his last 98 starts, and with the way Brandon Lowe is tearing the seams off of baseballs, it's hard not to back him to go yard in the P00P series. 

Lowe's top 10 in the league in homers in his first season with the Pittsburgh Pirates (20), and he's going to be a tough out for Nola. The Phillies' righty uses four pitches more than 10% of the time - knuckle curve (33.9%), four-seamer (24.2%), sinker (20.6%), changeup (12.4%) - and Lowe has a better than .600 SLG against two of them.

To make matters worse for Nola, his top three pitches have combined to allow 16 home runs already this season. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+265)

If Hunter Goodman had been born two decades earlier, his power would have had him playing football for Phillip Fulmer at Tennessee. Instead, he's become one of the most electric home run hitters in the best place to send baseballs to the moon, Coors Field. 

A season after hitting 31 home runs and registering a .520 SLG, Goodman has already slammed 25 dingers with a .535 SLG this season. That spells trouble for Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara.

Alcantara has allowed 12 home runs in 17 starts, and Goodman has a .706 SLG against his go-to pitch (sinker).

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Nick Kurtz (+244)

You don't earn the nickname "Big Amish" by being small and not destroying every baseball in your path. At 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, Nick Kurtz has turned home runs into an everyday routine and is destined for superstardom with 55 homers in his first 200 MLB appearances.

And the good people of Sacramento are in for another show tonight at Sutter Health Park, with Eric Lauer taking the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Lauer has allowed 16 home runs in 13 appearances this year, and he lives and dies by a four-seamer he throws 45.5% of the time.

Kurtz has obliterated four-seamers the last two seasons, with a .621 SLG and 70.6% hard-hit rate against them this year, and a .741 SLG and 55.7% hard-hit rate against them last year.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

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