Tuesday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Astros Right The Ship at Home?
There's a full slate and then some on Tuesday thanks to a doubleheader, and we're offering our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Baseball fans are in for a treat on Tuesday, with a jam-packed schedule of 16 MLB games to enjoy. The action begins with a doubleheader between the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers, starting at 3:40 p.m. ET.
Following that, all eyes will be on an eagerly anticipated AL East showdown between two favorites in the World Series odds, the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles. Scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET, this game promises a display of star power with multiple MLB MVP odds favorites taking the field.
For those staying up late or residing on the West Coast, the evening's main event features the Atlanta Braves taking on the Seattle Mariners. With the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET, fans can expect plenty of late-night excitement to round off the day.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Tuesday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday’s MLB expert picks
- Carlos Carrasco Under 3.5 strikeouts (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Spencer Turnbull Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Hunter Brown 5+ strikeouts (+132 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Carlos Carrasco Under 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 3.5 (-110) | Under 3.5 (-111) | Under 3.5 (-110) | Under 3.5 (-109) | Under 3.5 (+100) |
Game info: Guardians vs. Astros | Moneyline: Astros (-150 via Betway) | Total: Over 9.5 (+110)/Under 9.5 (-140) via Betway | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Cleveland Guardians veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco is less so "Cookie" and more like a dried-up, dusty biscuit at this point in his career. The once-perennial Cy Young contender owns a 4.63 ERA in 2024, and he's striking out only 7.71 batters per nine innings to go along with 5.01 walks per nine.
Carrasco faces the Houston Astros on Tuesday, who sit last in the AL West with a 9-19 record. However, the offense has mostly held up its end of the bargain, as Houston's hitters easily own the lowest strikeout rate in the majors and the fifth-highest wRC+.
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Carrasco's strikeout projection on Tuesday is 3.15, based on the average from two of our trusted models. With that in mind, we're getting roughly 22% positive expected value on this bet.
bet365 is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering even-money odds for this Under, while Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is already pricing its Under at -127.
Best odds: +100 via bet365
Spencer Turnbull Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-105) | Under 5.5 (-108) | Under 5.5 (+105) | Under 5.5 (-106) | Under 5.5 (-105) |
Game info: Phillies vs. Angels | Moneyline: Phillies (-140 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-125)/Under 8.5 (+105) via Betway | Start time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Unlike Carrasco, Spencer Turnbull is enjoying the best season of his career. The Philadelphia Phillies right-hander owns a sparkling 1.33 ERA and is striking out 10 batters per nine.
However, Turnbull didn't pitch at all in 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he managed only 31 innings in 2023 due to another serious injury. There have been multiple reports that he's heading back to the bullpen soon with Taijuan Walker returning for the Phillies, and the team will likely want to closely monitor (read: limit) his innings.
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Therefore, Turnbull may last only four or five innings in this one, and that plays a huge role in why he's projected for just 4.39 punchouts on Tuesday. Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 43% +EV on this bet, as BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering plus money for this Under.
Meanwhile, Pinnacle is already as short as -121 after opening at +108.
Best odds: +105 via BetMGM
Hunter Brown 5+ strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 4.5 (+115) | 5+ (+132) | Over 4.5 (+120) | Over 4.5 (+120) | Over 4.5 (+100) |
Game info: Guardians vs. Astros | Moneyline: Astros (-150 via Betway) | Total: Over 9.5 (+110)/Under 9.5 (-140) via Betway | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET
We're targeting the other pitcher in Guardians vs. Astros, except we're taking the Over this time.
Sure, Hunter Brown has been downright awful this season - mostly thanks to his implosion against the Kansas City Royals - but he did look a bit more like the pitcher most expected him to be in his last start against the Washington Nationals. Brown recorded six punchouts over four innings, and he's managing 8.66 K/9 for the season.
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Now, this is very much one of those bets in which we're betting on the value more than the implied probability. Brown's average strikeout projection across three of our trusted models is just 4.72, which isn't quite the five he'd need to clear this total. However, through FanDuel's +132 odds, we're still getting roughly 16% +EV.
Meanwhile, Pinnacle is trading Brown's Over at +109 after opening at +126.
It's important to note that FanDuel's Over 4.5 is priced at +130, showing us the value of price shopping even at the same best sportsbooks.
Best odds: +132 via FanDuel
MLB player props made Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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