Free MLB Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

Free picks on all MLB games for Sept. 11, 2025

Detroit Tigers logo DET @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sep 11 | 7:05 PM ET
1st 5 Innings Total
Detroit Tigers logo New York Yankees logo 1st 5 Innings u4.5 (+105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Mike Spector image
Mike Spector
Author

New York’s bullpen has had epic meltdowns in the first two games of this series. Out of fear of another collapse from its relievers, I am making the first five innings Under the preferred play instead of the full-game total.

Total Hits
Kerry Carpenter logo Kerry Carpenter u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Mike Spector image
Mike Spector
Author

Carpenter was batting just .167 with a .583 OPS over the last 15 days entering Wednesday. He has also been a much different hitter away from Comerica Park all season, as he has a .916 OPS in home games and a .697 OPS on the road.

 

Kansas City Royals logo KC @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Sep 11 | 7:15 PM ET
MoneyLine
Cleveland Guardians logo CLE (-136)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Shane Jackson image
Shane Jackson
Author

The Guardians are 7-5 against the Royals this year, posting a plus-20 run differential. They have secured a winning record against their division rival in eight of the last 10 years.

Total RBIs
Jac Caglianone logo Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Shane Jackson image
Shane Jackson
Author

Jac Caglianone has two RBI in eight at-bats so far this series. The Royals should focus on boosting Caglianone's confidence during the final weeks of the regular season.

New York Mets logo NYM @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Sep 11 | 7:15 PM ET
MoneyLine
Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI (-142)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Dustin Saracini image
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst

Jesus Luzardo has been a stud this season, and the Phillies have rocked David Peterson. Philadelphia owns a .305 xBA against Peterson, giving us confidence that they can walk away with a W here. 

Total Home Runs
Juan Soto logo Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Gabe Henderson image
Gabe Henderson
Publishing Editor

Juan Soto loves facing Jesus Luzardo. He's slashing .353/.522/.588 against Philadelphia's southpaw starter, with one home run against him to date. I'll take a flier on the Mets' superstar to make it five homers in 10 games tonight by going yard in back-to-back contests.

Outs Recorded
Jesus Luzardo logo Jesus Luzardo u16.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Mike Spector image
Mike Spector
Author

Peterson has combined to pitch 9 ⅓ innings in two starts against Philadelphia this year, and has a troubling 5.27 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 12 career appearances against Philadelphia.

Total
New York Mets logo u3.5 Total Runs (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Mike Spector image
Mike Spector
Author

New York is just 31-45 since its peak in mid-June. Though it ranks as the NL’s best in wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws in road games since the start of August, I cannot back it confidently after scoring three or fewer runs in six of the last seven games, while averaging just over six hits per game in the last four. 

 

Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Sep 11 | 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Julio Rodriguez logo Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+560)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Gabe Henderson image
Gabe Henderson
Publishing Editor

Julio Rodriguez has excellent career numbers against Los Angeles starter Jose Soriano, slashing .500/.571/1.000. In total, the Mariners' outfielder has six hits in 12 at-bats against the righty, including two home runs. The Angels' arm gave up eight earned runs in his last outing, so I fear Seattle will shell him, and Rodriguez will likely contribute to that.

Colorado Rockies logo COL @ San Diego Padres logo SD Sep 11 | 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+380)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Gabe Henderson image
Gabe Henderson
Publishing Editor

Fernando Tatis Jr. has cashed this prop play at a 30% clip over his last 10 outings. Given that he has a history of taking Colorado starter McCade Brown deep, I'm confident he can do it tonight. Tatis' home splits are also significantly better, with his OPS ticking up to .863 from .742 when playing at Petco Park.

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MLB picks & best bets today

Every day of the MLB season, Sportsbook Review’s expert picks team shares our top picks and predictions for the biggest games on the board. We cover the key betting markets you care about - moneylines, run lines, totals, and props like home run bets, strikeout totals, and NRFI (No Run First Inning) plays.

Our picks widget above highlights our favorite bets each day, with live MLB odds pulled from legal, regulated sportsbooks. Whether it’s a marquee matchup or a sleepy weekday slate, you’ll get our best calls on who wins, who goes deep, and which pitchers might dominate.

At SBR, we give you daily predictions on the spreads (run lines), Over/Unders, moneylines, and team and MLB player props. You’ll also find parlays and same-game parlays (SGPs) built into our game previews. Our goal is to find value in the odds you care about - bets on star players, big games, and the matchups you’re most likely to watch.

We use advanced stats and matchup data to build our picks, including batter/pitcher splits, recent form, and lineup intel. Our experts study trends, injury updates, and movement in the betting lines to help uncover the smartest ways to play each game.

Check back here every day for the latest MLB picks and betting insights from the experts at Sportsbook Review.

Free MLB moneyline picks

A moneyline pick is simply wagering on who will win a game, with no spreads involved. Odds show favorites with a minus (‑) and underdogs with a plus (+). Either team needs to just win by any margin to cash bets on their side.

Imagine the Yankees are favorites and the Red Sox are underdogs:

TeamMoneyline odds
Yankees–120
Red Sox+150
  • $100 on Yankees (‑120) → Profit = $100 × (100 / 120) = $83 (total payout $183)
  • $100 on Red Sox (+150) → Profit = $100 × 1.5 = $150 (total payout $250)

Free MLB Over/Under picks

Over/Under betting doesn’t care who wins the game, just how runs are scored.

  • Book sets a line → i.e., Over/Under 9.5
  • You choose:
    • Over 9.5
    • Under 9.5
  • Odds are usually around –110, meaning you bet $110 to win $100 (and your $110 stake returns $210 total)
  • If the final score is:
    • 6-5 (total 11) → Over wins
    • 4-3 (total 7) → Under wins
  • Pushes are avoided thanks to the half-point; i.e., a line of 9.5 guarantees Over or Under wins
    • If the total is set at 9 and that’s the exact final score, all bets on either side will be refunded (voided) as a tie
  • You can also bet on the total in the first inning or first five innings as popular game props

Free MLB run line picks

Our MLB expert picks typically focus on picks against the spread as one of the most popular MLB picks. Like spreads, run lines handicap matchups by setting a number that a team needs to cover via winning by more than that amount or losing by less than that amount.

  • The favorite is shown with a minus (–) and must win by more than the spread to cover
  • The underdog has a plus (+) and must either win outright or lose by fewer runs than the spread
  • Spreads often include a .5 (i.e., 1.5) to avoid a tie or “push.” If the final margin equals the exact spread, bets are refunded as a tie
  • Run lines are typically set at 1.5 - asking whether the favorite will win by more or less than one run. By late in the season, we’ll see more run lines of 2.5 in more lopsided matchups with separation in the standings and when injuries may be taking a toll on one team and not the other

Free MLB prop picks

MLB player props offer the best chance to bet on your favorite (or most disliked) players, or follow along with your fantasy baseball roster. Our best MLB betting sites are generally slower to adjust these lines and odds than they are to move the game lines, so it can give bettors an improved profit opportunity in the event of weather news or late lineup changes.

Betting lines are often in the form of Over/Unders for a set line of hits, runs, RBIs, or strikeouts. Other prop bets are Yes/No bets, or just Yes bets, such as to hit a home run or for a pitcher to record the win.

Best home run bets today

An MLB home run bet is a type of MLB player prop where you wager on a specific player to hit a home run in a particular game, or in a particular at bat.

Example:

  • Aaron Judge to hit a home run: +300

➤ Bet $10 to win $30 profit if Judge goes deep in that game

These odds can range from +200 to +700 or more, depending on the player, ballpark, weather, and matchup.

Home run props are perfect for small stakes with big upside. Don’t expect consistent wins, but over time, targeting smart matchups can pay off. You can also bet on players to hit 2+ or 3+ home runs in a game, or to hit a home run in their next at bat.

Free NRFI/YRFI picks

  • NRFI = No Run First Inning
  • YRFI = Yes Run First Inning

With these bets, you're only wagering on whether at least one run will or won’t be scored in the first inning of a game.

When betting NRFI or YRFI, look for pitchers’ WHIP or walk rates in the first inning, their stats the first time through a batting order, and check both teams’ trends for scoring early. If lineups change or late news breaks, consider live betting the market just before first pitch for added value.

How we make our MLB picks & predictions

At Sportsbook Review, we care about one thing above all: getting you the best odds possible. Why take a bet at -120 when you can grab the same play at -105 somewhere else? It’s the same outcome, but it means more profit in your pocket. That’s why we always recommend line shopping across multiple sportsbooks before locking anything in.

Whether you're betting a moneyline, a player prop, or a futures pick, the number matters. If you’re serious about turning a profit over time, you can’t afford to leave value on the table by accepting worse odds than what’s out there.

Before we get to that point, though, our experts dig into the matchups. We look at advanced stats, like strikeout rates, hard-hit percentage, and wRC+, along with betting trends and recent form. For player props, we study things like lineup protection, pitcher splits, and how a player performs against certain pitch types or in certain ballparks.

When you're building your card, don’t just bet the chalk or chase long shots. Balance is key. Favorites are favorites for a reason, but they’re not guaranteed winners. On the flip side, underdogs and big home run props look juicy, but come with risk. Stay objective. Avoid letting fandom or bias get in the way of the right read.

Why trust our MLB experts?

Sportsbook Review has been part of the game for over 20 years, helping bettors find smart picks and the best places to bet. We’re known for honest reviews of the best MLB betting sites and reliable advice you can actually use.

Our betting experts stick to what they know best - whether that’s MLB totals, player props, or big-picture futures. When they give a pick, it’s one they believe in and would bet themselves. Each recommendation comes with a 1-to-5-star confidence rating, based on how strong the edge is, how the odds stack up, and how the matchup looks.

You won’t see a ton of 5-star plays, especially on long-shot bets like home run props or futures. That’s just the nature of those markets - bigger payouts, but lower chances. We’ll always be straight with you about what we’re betting and why.

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