Astros vs. Phillies Picks, Predictions World Series Game 4: Can Philly Remain Unbeaten at Home?
Monday's rainout benefited the Philadelphia Phillies, who took a 2-1 series lead on the Houston Astros with Tuesday's victory. Read on for our Astros-Phillies MLB picks for Wednesday's Game 4.
Philadelphia improved to 6-0 at home this postseason and increased its run differential in those games to plus-27 with Tuesday's 7-0 shutout win against Houston. The Phillies slugged a World Series record-tying five home runs off of Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday's World Series Game 4 between the Astros and Phillies (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Draftkings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Astros vs. Phillies Game Info
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 2, 8:03 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Weather: 71 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, 8-mph NNE wind
Astros vs. Phillies Odds
Astros vs. Phillies Odds Analysis
The spread for Game 4 has crept closer and closer to a pick'em through the day Wednesday. A consensus opening price of -102 on the Phillies is down to -109 with Philadelphia despite 55% of the tickets accounting for 64% of the cash on the Astrps.
Oddsmakers seem to have gotten it right with the opening Over/Under of 7.5, however. While 64% of the tickets are on the Over, those account for a modest 42% of the handle.
Astros vs. Phillies Projected Pitchers
RHP Cristian Javier (11-9, 2.54 ERA, 0.948 WHIP) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA, 0.961 WHIP)
Javier is making his first-ever start against the Phillies and first career World Series start. After a relief appearance in Game 1 of the ALDS, Javier threw a gem in his only start this postseason in Game 3 of the ALCS. He allowed only one hit across 5 1/3 scoreless innings.
Nola struggled mightily in Game 1, as Houston tagged him for five runs in 4 1/3 innings. That makes it back-to-back poor starts for Nola, as he allowed six earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in Game 2 of the NLCS against the San Diego Padres (the only game the Phillies lost that series). Before that, he had been lights out, with 12 2/3 scoreless innings over his first two postseason starts.
Astros vs. Phillies Picks
Check out our FanDuel and DraftKings promo offers for Game 4!
Astros vs. Phillies ML Pick
Phillies (-105) ★★
Philadelphia has Houston in its worse batting split for this game, as the Astros ranked second against left-handed pitching with a 124 wRC+ but ninth against righties with a 107 clip.
Houston did not even manage as much as one extra-base hit and had only three runners in scoring position in Game 3. The ordinarily patient Astros lineup had a curious approach against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, as the southpaw managed to escape the first inning with just nine pitches. Though Philadelphia used four relievers on Tuesday, it still has its best bullpen arms (Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez) rested and ready to nail down the final innings.
The Phillies have a higher postseason OPS than the Astros, and of all the teams that played more than one series this postseason, Philadelphia owns the best batting average and OBP. We expect Philadelphia to do enough at home once again to take a commanding 3-1 lead.
Astros vs. Phillies O/U Pick
Under 7.5 (-115) ★★★★
Philadelphia has averaged seven runs per game at home this postseason, and of all teams that played more than one series, the Phillies own the best batting average and on-base percentage. While the Phillies' 22 home runs are the most of any playoff team, Javier did a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the yard this season. He allowed one home run per nine innings, and that rate has dropped dramatically in each of his first three years in the big leagues.
Houston's one benefit from Tuesday's blowout loss is that it did not have to use relievers Rafael Montero or Ryan Pressly, the only two pitchers on either team to pitch in Games 1 and 2. With the Phillies' bullpen equally rested, we like the Under to cash in this game, as scoring should come to a halt late.
Astros vs. Phillies Prop Pick
Harper to record an RBI (+170) ★★
Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper has driven in at least one run in eight of his last nine home games. Per Katie Sharp, he is the first player in MLB history with at least 20 hits, with six or more home runs, and at least six doubles in a single postseason. Though Astros pitchers may be more careful with him going forward, we cannot pass up these plus-money odds on the favorite for World Series MVP.
Where to Bet on Astros-Phillies Picks
Astros-Phillies picks made 11/2/2022 at 8:25 a.m. ET.
Related Articles
