Invest in Shohei Ohtani for AL Cy Young Following Justin Verlander's Injury

The Houston Astros have placed Justin Verlander on the 15-day injured list due to a calf injury. As a result of this announcement, we take a look at the AL Cy Young Award and why Shohei Ohtani is a favorable bet. 

Verlander was pulled from Sunday's game against the Baltimore Orioles after pitching only three innings due to a calf injury. All season, I have strongly advocated fading Verlander for the AL Cy Young, and this news opened up new opportunities for futures tickets. 

The following are my reasons for investing in Shohei Ohtani for the AL Cy Young Award.

American League Cy Young Odds

Shocked Ohtani is Still +3500

When Verlander was removed from the game on Sunday, I knew exactly who I was going to target, and that was Ohtani. Prior to the odds being removed or adjusted, I invested in him at several of our top-rated sportsbooks at +5000. It is never in my intentions to wish injury upon any athlete, but I bought these prices with the expectation that Verlander could be placed on the injured list and that Ohtani's odds would be shortened as a result. 

In response to Tuesday's announcement that Verlander will be placed on the 15-day IL, the sportsbooks reacted immediately. The odds were all pulled, and many of them remain off the board since Verlander had been a heavy favorite to win the AL Cy Young prior to the injury. 

What I did not expect is what we have seen from FanDuel Sportsbook, which is the first sportsbook to re-post the odds, and that is a +3500 price point on Ohtani following the news of Verlander's injury. The race is much closer between these two even before the injury, so I expected the price for Ohtani to be much lower. 

Ohtani More Dominant Than Verlander

As far as I am concerned, Verlander has not sufficiently separated himself from the field, in the event that he does not pitch the rest of the season or a large chunk of the remaining schedule. It is the volume of innings Verlander has pitched that has given him an advantage over someone like Ohtani, and he is about to lose that advantage.

Statistically, Ohtani has been more dominant than Verlander, but Verlander has pitched 24 more innings, which has allowed him to accumulate a higher fWAR and bWAR. 

BUY Ohtani at +3500 via FanDuel 

Since Verlander is about to lose one of his few statistical advantages over Ohtani in volume, I recommend exploiting the +3500 price point on Ohtani at FanDuel. Based on the statistics, Ohtani should be priced in the +300 range, not +3500.

I believe that Ohtani had a good chance of winning a vote against Verlander prior to the injury based on what we saw from National League starters Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler last season. Even though Burnes pitched significantly fewer innings than Wheeler, he won the 2021 NL Cy Young vote. Voters seemed to favor Burnes' strikeout dominance over Wheeler's volume.

It is not as if you are betting on someone who is not a very well known name either. There is no doubt that Ohtani is extremely popular among the voters, and they may see this as a way of rewarding him for another outstanding season while still giving the AL MVP Award to New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge. 

BUY BUY BUY! Ohtani's +3500 odds for the AL Cy Young Award are incorrectly priced in my opinion, and I believe they will be adjusted again very soon. 

Where to Bet on MLB Futures

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

MLB odds and best bets from 8/30/2022 at 3:39 p.m. ET.