2022 Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips

One of the PGA Tour’s marquee non-major events is here. With a stacked field at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, CA, our PGA Tour experts offer up their top 2022 Farmers Insurance Open picks.

A field of 156 includes 12 of the top-20 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). World No. 1 Jon Rahm leads the way as this week’s prohibitive betting favorite as the defending U.S. Open champion at this venue. Patrick Reed attempts to defend his Farmers Insurance Open title from last January.

This week’s event is on the ultra-rare Wednesday to Saturday schedule due to the NFL's conference championships taking place on Sunday. Split between the North and South courses at Torrey Pines, golfers will alternate for their first two rounds, and those remaining after the 36-hole cut will play Friday and Saturday’s rounds on the South Course.

Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their top Farmers Insurance Open picks and predictions.

Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview

Farmers Insurance Open Picks to Win

Zalatoris (+3300 via PointsBet)

I was on Zalatoris last week at The American Express, and I’m going right back to that well after a T-6 finish in his first event of the year. Zalatoris was fifth in the field with 1.43 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh with 0.92 SG: Approach per round last week. He lost 0.38 strokes per round on the greens.

The American is early in just his second full-time season on the PGA Tour, but he seems to be starting off the same way he started last year. He tied for seventh in this event, as part of a stretch of 13 straight made cuts that included his famed runner-up finish at the Masters. In all, he missed just four cuts out of 26 professional events in 2021.

We’re getting a quality number at PointsBet. The market has him as low as +2900 to win this week. Though he’s looking for his first PGA Tour win against a very strong field, he has proven he can compete against all of this week’s top names. - McLaren

Finau (+3000 via BetMGM)

Finau struggled through two rounds last week but shot a Saturday 67 to make the cut and a Sunday 69 to finish T-40. During The American Express, he gained strokes on the field in approach, driving, and putting. Finau has played six events this season and has gained 1.58 strokes from tee to green per round. The Farmers Insurance Open will be Finau's ninth visit to Torrey Pines.

It didn't work out for him last week at the American Express, but that won't deter me from picking him again this week. At +3000, it is difficult to ignore a golfer who fits the course this well and had solid stats last week.

I'm attracted to Finau because of how he profiles on this golf course. Driving distance and iron play are crucial to success at Torrey Pines. This is Finau's strength as he is averaging 0.72 SG: Approach and 0.68 SG: Off-the-Tee this season.

Finau has also built an impressive course history at Torrey Pines. Last year, he finished T-2 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and T-6 the year before. He has averaged 1.76 strokes gained on the field during his 23 rounds at Torrey Pines. During his seven career appearances in this event, his lowest finish is T-24.

Due to his success on these greens last season for the Farmers Insurance Open, and U.S. Open, I am backing him at +3000 for this week's tournament. - Metler

Matthew Wolff (+6600 via BetMGM)

Wolff was a popular pick last weekend at The American Express but fell short of expectations after shooting a dreadful 78 in the opening round, immediately putting him out of contention. However, Wolff has shown the ability to bounce back quickly from poor outings. He earned his first PGA Tour victory at the 3M Open in 2019, a week after missing the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. 

We’re getting a discount on Wolff, who went off at 30-1 last seek before his abysmal first-round performance. Driving distance is paramount to success at Torrey Pines, and Wolff ranks second over the last 24 rounds behind Bryson DeChambeau. 

Additionally, all par 5s here play between 550-600 yards, where Wolff has excelled, gaining 10.7 strokes in the past 24 rounds. Getting Wolff at these odds is of tremendous value. - Anderson

Farmers Insurance Open Long Shots

Fowler (+15000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

DraftKings is out to lunch on Fowler to win this event. FanDuel and PointsBet are both offering a market-low of +9000.

After reaching what could be considered a low point last season, Fowler began to rebound late in the year. He tied for eighth at the PGA Championship, for 11th at the Memorial Tournament, and for third at The CJ Cup. He missed the cut last week but with an abysmal and out-of-character 1.41 strokes lost per round with the putter. The American gained strokes off the tee and is averaging 0.95 SG: Off-the-Tee per round through seven measured rounds this season.

Fowler tied for 53rd in this event last year in another poor putting performance, but he has 30 career rounds of experience on the South Course with an average of 0.24 strokes gained per round. I like him at the long venue after his impressive showing at the 2021 PGA Championship.

Mitchell (+10000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Mitchell has always been a leader when it comes to driving distance, but he has begun to develop other facets of his game. He has finished in the top 12 in three of his seven tournaments this season. Early in the season, Mitchell has a 1.00 SG: Tee to Green per round. 

Mitchell's odds this week do not match his recent performance due to his poor course history at Torrey Pines. Mitchell has missed the cut in his last three appearances at the Farmers Insurance Open.

If you compare Torrey Pines to other courses on Tour, it is very similar to Quail Hollow, where the Wells Fargo Championship is played. Many players have been successful at both courses, including Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. In the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, Mitchell finished T-3, and in 2019, he finished T-8.

At the price of +10000, I'm more than happy to take a player who hasn't done well on this course, but that doesn't mean his game isn't suited to it. - Metler

Cameron Davis (+9000 via DraftKings)

Davis is one of the longer hitters on Tour, an asset at this event. This season, he has been in tremendous form, tying for 10th at the Tournament of Champions and for 27th at the Sony Open. 

Last season, he finished 32nd at this event, excelling with SG: Tee-to-Green but faltered on the greens. 

The Aussie won his first PGA Tour title on Poa Annua greens, so we know he’s comfortable putting on these surfaces overall. Davis is a burgeoning young talent, and we shouldn’t be surprised to see his name rising on the leaderboard throughout the weekend. - Anderson

Farmers Insurance Open Top Matchup Picks

Im (+116) vs. DeChambeau (via FanDuel)

Im tied for 11th last week while losing 0.26 strokes per round with the putter. However, he led the field with 2.17 SG: Tee-to-Green per round, and was 10th with 0.86 SG: Approach per round. He’s also averaging 0.79 SG: Off-the-Tee through 24 measured rounds this season.

DeChambeau has the edge at No. 9 in the OWGR entering the week, but he has been much less active this year. He hasn’t played this event since a missed cut in 2018, while Im tied for 32nd last January.

Im finished just two strokes behind DeChambeau at the 2021 U.S. Open, and the easier conditions this week should largely negate DeChambeau’s regular advantage. - McLaren

Berger (-110) vs. Burns (via bet365)

Berger is a four-time winner on the PGA Tour, and his most recent victory came last season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He has competed in only two tournaments so far this season, but both were impressive. Berger finished T-5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in his most recent event.

Burns is already a winner on Tour this season after winning the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson. He is 13th in the OWGR and has four top-10 finishes through six events this season.

Berger is regarded as one of the most skilled second-shot golfers on the PGA Tour. At Torrey Pines, he gained 0.59 strokes putting during the 2021 U.S. Open. As long as Berger's iron game is as good as it has been recently, it will be difficult for Burns to keep up. He will also have difficulty keeping pace with Berger if he putts as well as he did last year at Torrey Pines.

Burns missed the cut at that same U.S. Open at Torrey Pines last season, while Berger tied for seventh. - Metler

Finau (+105) vs. Burns (via DraftKings)

Simply put, Finau loves this event. He has played here seven times, finishing no worse than 25th and in the top 10 on four occasions. He has stated his affinity for the South Course as his length and natural fade of the ball play-up here. Don’t be afraid of his mediocre performance from last week; as the weekend went on, his approach game improved, and he settled in. 

Burns arrived at this event last season. He entered the final round two strokes back but faltered to a closing 75 to finish T-18 - nothing out of the ordinary for a young player in a big moment. He has since won twice on Tour and established himself as elite, with six top-10 finishes in his last 10 events. 

Although Burns is a special talent, he shouldn’t be a favorite over Finau, whose history at this event is too good to ignore. - Anderson

Farmers Insurance Open Top Prop Picks

Top American: Dustin Johnson (+1600 via PointsBet)

This is a value pick on a golfer we haven’t seen play since mid-October. Still ranked No. 4 in the world, Johnson shares just the fourth-best odds in this pool with Berger and Burns. He’s higher ranked than all of Justin Thomas, DeChambeau, and Xander Schauffele.

Johnson hasn’t played this event in a couple of years, as he usually starts his seasons overseas. However, he has averaged 1.20 strokes gained per round over 29 career rounds on the South Course. 

He regularly performs well off of extended breaks, and the boosted odds are largely a result of him having been out of sight and out of mind for most golf fans. - McLaren

Top rest of the world: Marc Leishman (+1000 via BetMGM)

The winner of the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open is in good form heading into this event. Leishman has finished in the top 20 in four out of six tournaments he has played this season. Averaging 0.81 SG: Putting per round, he is one of the top putters on Tour.

Leishman is gaining strokes in every category and has his most impressive statistics since 2019 with his irons. When you combine his recent iron play with his excellent play on the greens, you have a very dangerous player coming into Torrey Pines this week.

In 39 rounds played at Torrey Pines, Leishman has averaged 1.43 strokes gained. The sample size here is not small, and Leishman has consistently shown he can perform on this golf course.

The rest of the world group is headed by Matsuyama, but I prefer Leishman at +1000 to Matsuyama at +500. - Metler

Max Homa top-20 finish (+275 via DraftKings)

Homa loves playing in California and has finished in the top 10 twice in his last two trips to the Farmers.

He also excels on par 5s in the 550–600-yard range, gaining 10.4 strokes in his last 24 rounds. At nearly 3-1 odds, I’ll back Homa to repeat his last two outings at Torrey Pines. - Anderson

Farmers Insurance Open Top Fades

Hideki Matsuyama

Already a two-time winner this season, Matsuyama claimed victory in two of his last three events. He returns to Torrey Pines off of a T-53 finish in this event last January and a T-26 at the U.S. Open.

While the reigning Masters champ is averaging 0.79 SG: Approach per round this season, his driving isn’t quite up to the standards of others in this range of the odds board. He has also been struggling on long par 4s (450-500 yards), ranking 102nd in efficiency to start the season.

Despite the strong results, I don’t like that play to continue at this venue.

Brooks Koepka

Koepka has played in six tournaments so far this season and missed the cut in two of them. He finished 28th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in his most recent star, and he has lost 0.02 strokes per round this season from tee to green.

When you look at all of his odds, you are paying for the name and not the recent performance. The +3500 price tag is way too short for a player who isn't even gaining strokes in his overall game this season.

It is well known how different his game is at a major. This is why his statistics are slightly inflated at Torrey Pines because he tied for fourth at the U.S. Open last year. However, he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open.

In a couple of weeks, Koepka will defend his title at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and I wouldn't be surprised if he uses this tournament as a warm-up for that event. - Metler

Patrick Reed (+5000 via DraftKings)

It may be ill-advised to fade the tournament winner from last season, but Reed has been in poor form of late.

He battled a case of double pneumonia after the Olympics and hasn’t looked right since - seemingly sapping some of his physical strength, as he currently ranks 201st on Tour in driving distance. 

Reed has one of the best short games around, but distance is vital this weekend, and until he shows signs of his former self, he’s a strong fade for me. - Anderson

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