Farmers Insurance Open Preview: Elite Field Tees it up with Rare Wednesday Start

Our PGA Tour betting preview for the Farmers Insurance Open offers up the top outright picks for the rare Wednesday-Saturday event.

It’s a short turnaround for the PGA Tour this week. The Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, CA, will run from Wednesday to Saturday so as not to have the final round collide with Sunday’s NFL conference championship games. World No. 1 Jon Rahm leads the field back to the site of his 2021 U.S. Open win.

Despite the schedule adjustment, there’s a strong field at what’s annually one of the biggest non-major events of the season. While Rahm is the defending champion at this venue, Patrick Reed is the defending champ of the Farmers Insurance Open from last January. Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Jordan Spieth are among those looking to dethrone them.

Hudson Swafford is also in attendance after winning last week’s The American Express in La Quinta, CA. He tied for the best round of the day with a 64 on Sunday to claim his third PGA Tour win.

Here are my top outright picks for the PGA Tour's Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

Farmers Insurance Open Odds

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7gM8y/1/

Farmers Insurance Open Odds Analysis

Though his odds vary slightly from +650 at DraftKings Sportsbook to as high as +750 at FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM, Rahm is the consensus favorite for the second week in a row. No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), he tied for 14th last week following a runner-up finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. While the reward is rarely worth the risk of betting this heavy of a favorite in a field of 156, Rahm was victorious as a consensus +1000 favorite prior to the start of Round 1 of the U.S. Open.

There’s little discrepancy in the odds among the top names on the board this week. However, FanDuel’s +3400 on Scheffler stands out, as does DraftKings' +2200 on Johnson.

Reed is an apparent value with odds as high as +5000 at DraftKings, BetMGM, and Barstool Sportsbook. PointsBet is offering just +4000. While it was played at the same venue, the U.S. Open was set up considerably more difficult than the Farmers Insurance Open.

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1486028340972568576

Torrey Pines Course Profile

We drop from last week’s three-course rotation to two this week. All golfers will alternate between the North and South courses on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the 36-hole cut, the remaining 65 golfers will play each of their final two rounds on the South Course on Friday and Saturday. All four rounds of the U.S. Open were played on the South Course.

Each of the last five winning scores of the Farmers Insurance Open was minus-10 or better. Reed won by five strokes at a modest 14-under par last year, while Justin Rose won by just two at minus-21 in 2019. Rahm won the U.S. Open at just minus-6. Wind and rain can be major factors but the forecast looks clear for this week.

The North Course is the easier of the two. Measuring 7,258 yards, playing to a par of 72, and featuring Bentgrass greens, seven holes played below par last January. The most common par 4 range is between 450-500 yards.

The South Course is 7,765 yards as one of the longest regular venues on the PGA Tour circuit. It also plays to a par of 72 but features the much trickier Poa Annua putting surfaces. Seven holes played below par last year. The most common par 4 range is also 450-500 yards.

Farmers Insurance Open Stats

While the fairways at Torrey Pines, particularly on the South Course, are quite narrow, distance should be favored when looking at our primary stat of Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this week. There's little trouble outside of the fairways, and the rough will be not (un)groomed to U.S. Open conditions. SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green is also highly important for the long par 4s and 5s.

Here are our top stats for the week

SG: Off-the-TeeSG: Tee-to-GreenSG: ApproachPar 4 efficiency: 450-500 yardsScrambling

Rahm is the field leader with 4.30 total strokes gained per round on the field on the North Course, though he has played just five rounds there. Finau has averaged 2.44 strokes gained across seven rounds, Ryan Palmer has averaged 2.21 strokes gained across eight rounds, and Marc Leishman has averaged 1.74 strokes gained over 13 rounds.

Rahm has averaged 2.43 strokes gained over 19 career rounds on the South Course. He leads all golfers in this field with a minimum of 10 rounds played. Brandt Snedeker is next up with 2.11 strokes gained per round.

Snedeker is one of three golfers in this field with multiple wins at the Farmers Insurance Open. He ties Jason Day with two. Phil Mickelson has three, but none since 2001. Tiger Woods is a seven-time winner of this event.

https://twitter.com/JustinRayGolf/status/1485671763304402945

Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Jordan Spieth (+4000 via DraftKings)Corey Conners (+5000 via BetMGM)Cameron Davis (+12500 via Barstool)

SEE ALSO: Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks

Farmers Insurance Open Outright Picks

Spieth (+4000)

Spieth doesn’t have a great history at Torrey Pines, with an average of 0.33 strokes gained on the field over 16 career rounds on the South Course. However, he has averaged 1.22 strokes gained per round on the North Course and is capable of taking care of his necessary low score in his one round there.

He missed the cut at last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, but he tied for 19th at the U.S. Open following a mid-season resurgence that saw him return to the winner’s circle at the Valero Texas Open. He was just 92nd in the OWGR following his missed cut in this event last year, but he has vaulted back to 14th entering this week.

Spieth leads this field in par 4 efficiency from our key distance, and he’s fifth in scrambling through eight measured rounds to start the 2021-22 season. He's averaging 0.69 SG: Off-the-Tee per round, and his short game has been very strong.

Eighth in this field by the OWGR, Spieth has just the 15th-best odds to win at DraftKings. His odds are as low as +3300 at Barstool.

Conners (+5000)

Conners tied for just 37th in this event last January, but he was fifth in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee per round. He lost strokes on and around the greens; however, his putting has been much improved through 16 measured rounds this season. His iron play remains a typical strength of his game, and he’s 32nd in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards this season.

The Canadian missed the cut at The American Express. While never a good thing, the extra two days off may prove advantageous with the short turnaround coming into this event. He previously finished 11th at the Sony Open as one of the pre-tournament favorites.

Davis (+12500)

Davis has averaged 1.24 total strokes gained on the North Course and 0.34 strokes gained on the South Course. He tied for 32nd in this event last year but didn’t play in the U.S. Open.

He was third in the field last year with 2.21 SG: Approach per round. His 3.49 SG: Tee-to-Green per round on the South Course led the field. He also averaged 1.00 SG: Off-the-Tee per round, but he lost 1.74 strokes per round on the greens. His short game has been much closer to neutral through 21 measured rounds this season.

The winner of last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, Davis tied for 10th at the Tournament of Champions before a T-27 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. His odds this week are as low as +8000 at BetMGM, so we’re getting an excellent price at Barstool.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 1/24/2022 at 5:45 p.m. ET.