Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks: Outrights, Long Shots, Props for Torrey Pines
With Jon Rahm entering the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open as the prohibitive betting favorite our golf betting experts search for value with their top picks.
Rahm won each of his last two events on the PGA Tour, and four of his last five events internationally. Returning to the site of his 2021 U.S. Open win and maiden PGA Tour victory in 2017, he carries odds as low as +350 to win this week.
With a strong supporting cast including eight others from the top 20 of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), there's still plenty of value in this field. Our golf experts shop around among our best sportsbooks for their top picks.
Here are our expert picks for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open based on the best odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet.
Check out our Farmers Insurance Open picks and Farmers Insurance Open power rankings.
Farmers Insurance Open Tournament Info
When: Wednesday, Jan. 25 - Saturday, Jan. 28
Where: Torrey Pines Golf Course, San Diego, CA
How to watch: Golf Channel and CBS
2022 winner: Luke List (playoff over Will Zalatoris)
Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks
|Esten McLaren||Neil Parker||Shane Jackson|
|To win||Collin Morikawa (+1800 via PointsBet)||Will Zalatoris (+1800 via DraftKings)||Sungjae Im (+2000 via DraftKings)|
|Long shot||J.J. Spaun (+5000 via BetMGM)||Hideki Matsuyama (+4500 via PointsBet)||Cam Davis (+5000 via DraftKings)|
|Favorite prop||Top USA player: Tony Finau (+850 via FanDuel)||Thomas Detry to finish Top 20 (+300 via BetMGM)||Taylor Montgomery to finish Top 20 (+130 via DraftKings)|
Farmers Insurance Open Picks to Win
Collin Morikawa (+1800 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
Morikawa wasn't on my initial list of outright picks for the Farmers Insurance Open, but I'm now intrigued after his odds increased over the course of Monday into Tuesday morning. The extra few points of value (up from opening odds around +1400) mean a lot in this strong but top-heavy field.
The two-time major winner didn't play last year's Farmers Insurance Open but he tied for fourth in his last visit to Torrey Pines for the 2021 U.S. Open. The easier conditions for the non-major will play to his advantage, as Morikawa doesn't have the length of Rahm, Tony Finau, or some of this field's longer hitters. He ranks second in this field with an average of 2.17 true strokes gained from tee-to-green per round across his last eight measured rounds. - McLaren
Will Zalatoris (+1800 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Zalatoris has consecutive top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines, including losing in a playoff last year. I’m expecting his elite ball-striking statistics to carry him this week at a track where he’s had success. He ranked first in strokes gained: approach and SG: tee-to-green on tour last year, and he respectively checks out at fourth and sixth in this field in the two true SG metrics across his past 20 measured rounds.
Additionally, two key metrics I identified for success at the Farmers are bogey avoidance and par-5 scoring. Zalatoris is the early-season leader in both bogey avoidance and par-5 birdie-or-better percentage. Add the favorable odds available through DraftKings presenting a 27% positive expected value over the +1400 number via FanDuel, and we’re also landing a healthy advantage. - Parker
Sungjae Im (+2000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Im had the honor of cashing my first-ever outright ticket when he won the Honda Classic in 2020, and I’ve always had a soft spot for him ever since. But Im fits the type of player I want to back at Torrey Pines, which is why he’s had so much success at the Farmers Insurance Open.
With a personal-best T-6 finish at this event last year, Im has made the cut in each of his four career appearances at the Farmers. He is also coming off a T-18 showing at The American Express last week and ranks second in this field in SG: off the tee over the last 50 rounds entering this weekend.
Im is 20/1 to win this event at three different sportsbooks, but as short as 18/1 at Caesars. As long as you take advantage of the 20/1 offering, you are getting the best price on my pick to win this year’s Farmers Insurance Open. - Jackson
Check out our WM Phoenix Open odds and our The Players Championship odds.
Farmers Insurance Open Long-Shot Picks
J.J. Spaun (+5000 via BetMGM) ⭐
Spaun has excelled from tee to green across his last 11 measured rounds, while also gaining strokes in every other key area. He tied for 34th in last year's FIO with three other top-30 finishes at Torrey Pines, including a T-9 in 2017.
After picking up his first PGA Tour win in April of last year, Spaun tied for fifth in the Sentry Tournament of Champions to kick off the 2023 golf calendar. - McLaren
Hideki Matsuyama (+4500 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐
While I typically wouldn’t consider +4500 odds a “long shot,” Matsuyama fits the bill this week with the favorite trading so low. We’re also landing an incredible number via PointsBet. Compared to his +2800 odds through Caesars, the +4500 via PointsBet presents a 56% positive expected value.
Matsuyama is also heading to Torrey for the 10th time, including a 26th-place result in the 2021 U.S. Open, and he finished third in the 2019 Farmers. Finally, after ranking 19th in SG: tee-to-green last season, he’s 71st through 18 rounds this season, so I’m looking for some improved play on a familiar track. - Parker
Cam Davis (+5000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
In the 2021 version of this event, Davis led the entire field in strokes gained: tee-to-green. The problem was that he lost over five strokes with the flat stick during a 32nd-place finish. We know that putting can come and go on any given weekend, so perhaps this is the week that Davis puts it all together after making five cuts in as many appearances at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Davis missed the cut at The American Express last weekend after finishing T-32 in the Sony Open two weeks ago. He ranks 15th in approach over the last 50 rounds entering this event and seems like the ideal long shot for this venue. Well, as much as anyone can be a long shot these days.
With a consensus price of 50/1 to win outright across our best sportsbooks, it is now or never to fire on Davis for this week. - Jackson
Check out our Masters odds and PGA Championship odds.
Farmers Insurance Open Prop Picks
Top USA player: Tony Finau (+850 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Though this runs contrary to my outright pick above, I love the value we're getting on Finau in this prop market.
Finau is second to Rahm by the outright odds at most of our best sportsbooks. His consensus number of +1200 as of Tuesday is down from the +1400 that was available at some spots Monday afternoon. Still, Finau remains an appealing value in the Top USA Player market, especially with FanDuel offering him at +850 with Xander Schauffele as the +750 favorite. - McLaren
Thomas Detry top 20 (+300 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
There aren't any glaring weaknesses in Detry’s game, and he’s been particularly hot with the putter, ranking eighth in this field in true SG: putting across his past 28 measured rounds. Additionally, he’s avoided squares on the card to the tune of a 17th-ranked 9.72 bogey percentage through 24 rounds.
I’m also encouraged by his six top-20 finishes across his past nine PGA Tour events. Detry ranking a respectable 44th in SG: tee-to-green is further encouragement. I’m anticipating improvement to his underwhelming 44.05 par-5 birdie-or-better percentage, too.
This is also a fair number, and BetMGM pays out ties in the top-finish markets, so we have some added insurance compared to the dead-heat payouts at other books. - Parker
Taylor Montgomery top 20 (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Sportsbooks aren’t letting us even think about betting on Montgomery in the outright market this week, listing the rookie in the 20/1 and 30/1 range. That’s a steep price tag for a player who has yet to win on the PGA Tour. If he wins this week, I’m certainly going to miss it.
DraftKings is giving us a plus-money price on Montgomery to finish in the Top 20, which we will happily take for our favorite prop. Montgomery has made the cut in nine consecutive events and is coming off T-5 and T-12 finishes over the last two weekends.
Nobody is putting as well as Montgomery, who finished T-11 at Torrey Pines just a year ago by gaining over five strokes on the greens. I might not be ready to bet on Montgomery to win a tournament, but he should be a factor on the leaderboard come Saturday. - Jackson
Farmers Insurance Open Odds
|Jon Rahm||+450||+430||+450||+350 ❄️||+450|
|Xander Schauffele||+1100||+1100||+1200 🔥||+1000||+900|
|Justin Thomas||+1400||+1400||+1600 🔥||+1400||+1400|
|Collin Morikawa||+1800||+1200 ❄️||+1400||+1400||+1800|
|Will Zalatoris||+1800||+1400 ❄️||+1600||+1600||+1800|
|Sungjae Im||+2000||+2000||+2200 🔥||+1800 ❄️||+2000|
|Taylor Montgomery||+2800||+2600||+2500||+2500||+3000 🔥|
|Max Homa||+2200||+2000 ❄️||+2200||+2200||+2200|
|Jason Day||+2200||+2000||+2500 🔥||+2000||+2200|
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