Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Picks and Matchups: Trust in Course History at Bay Hill

The PGA Tour will continue its Florida swing this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, FL. We have selected several matchup and prop picks for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Despite winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational last season, Bryson DeChambeau will not be competing this week due to injury. DeChambeau became the first American to win this event since Matt Every in 2014 and 2015. He withdrew Monday morning.

Aside from Tiger Woods, who has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational eight times, international golfers have dominated this tournament. Since 2016, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has been won by Jason Day, March Leishman, Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari, Tyrrell Hatton, and DeChambeau. Englishman Lee Westwood was the runner-up last year.

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With a stronger field at Bay Hill Club & Lodge than we had at PGA National last week, we have selected some of the top matchups and props for this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

SEE ALSO: Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Preview

Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Picks

Tyrrell Hatton (-102) vs. Billy Horschel (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Hatton won the Arnold Palmer Invitational by one stroke over Leishman in 2020. The Englishman has not only won the event previously, but he has consistently excelled at Bay Hill with an average of 1.85 total strokes gained on the field over 20 career rounds played.

Due to his history at the University of Florida, Billy Horschel typically receives a significant amount of financial backing from bettors on the Florida swing. Though, he has not performed quite as well as Hatton has at Bay Hill in previous events. The American has averaged only 0.47 SG: total over 34 career rounds at this venue.

Horschel is the favorite in this matchup according to the sportsbooks because his strokes gained numbers are slightly higher than those of Hatton this season. Despite the better overall game, Horschel is losing strokes on approach to the green this season. Hatton is averaging 0.53 SG: approach per round. Horschel will not be able to get away with poor ball-striking this week, and I think that is why he has had difficulty at Bay Hill in the past.

In my opinion, the wrong golfer is priced as a favorite in this matchup. I believe Hatton is a better fit for this course and I like the fact that I can purchase Hatton at -102 in this matchup.

SEE ALSO: 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Picks

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+110) vs. Maverick McNealy (via PointsBet)

As with the breakdown for the previous matchup, PointsBet generated these odds based on statistical data for the year and not on who best fits the profile at Bay Hill. 

Maverick McNealy has the more impressive statistical record so far this season, compared to Christiaan Bezuidenhout, but he also accumulated all of these statistics while playing on the West Coast swing. Typically, McNealy plays his best golf on the West Coast, which has helped him pad his stats heading into the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Across two appearances at Bay Hill, Bezuidenhout has averaged 2.10 SG: total. Sungjae Im and McIlroy are the only golfers who average more strokes gained per round at Bay Hill.

During his 10 rounds at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, McNealy has averaged only 0.21 strokes gained per round, and he failed to make the cut in 2020.

The +110 odds are way too high of a price to be offering on Bezuidenhout in this matchup. It is a great matchup for the South African, and I especially like the +110 underdog price point.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Top Prop Picks

Top American: Keegan Bradley (+3700 via FanDuel)

The American field is weaker than it usually is at PGA Tour events, therefore I plan on looking further down the odds board for this prop. This week, staying out of the rough will be imperative and that is why Keegan Bradley and his ball-striking skills appeal to me.

Although Bradley is one of the strongest players on the PGA Tour from tee to green, it is his putting that hinders him each week. Bradley is averaging 1.22 SG: tee-to-green so far this season but losing 0.45 strokes with the putter per round.

Bradley has a history of success at Bay Hill. He has played 38 rounds at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, averaging 1.25 SG: total. He finished T-10 at Bay Hill last year, his most successful performance over his last five appearances.

At a price of +3700, I can consider Bradley to be the top American in the field this week. In the event that his putting is average, he is more than capable of scoring low at Bay Hill.

SEE ALSO: Puerto Rico Open Picks and Preview

Top GB & Irish Player: Matt Fitzpatrick (+600 via PointsBet)

McIlroy is the favorite for this nationality prop at a price of +275; however, Matt Fitzpatrick is having a stronger season statistically in 2022. Fitzpatrick is averaging 1.12 SG: approach, while McIlroy is losing 0.08 strokes per round on approach.

Both players have extremely strong course histories at Bay Hill and should be considered when picking outright winners this week. The primary reason I am interested in Fitzpatrick in this prop is the price that we are being offered.

McIlroy and Fitzpatrick should be separated by a much smaller margin than +275 and +600, respectively. Interestingly, DraftKings agrees with me on this topic, as Fitzpatrick's price is listed at +450. Given Fitzpatrick's current form and the +600 odds we are being offered, this bet is simply too compelling to ignore.

Both McIlroy and Fitzpatrick to finish top 10 (+900 via PointsBet)

By assigning this prop a price of +900, PointsBet is effectively assigning this bet an implied probability of 10% of winning. Over their last three appearances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Fitzpatrick and McIlroy have cashed this wager 100% of the time.

The odds for Fitzpatrick to reach the top 10 at DraftKings are +200, while McIlroy's odds are +110. If you were able to parlay these odds together, you would receive a price of +530. This is a much lower price than the +900 we are receiving at PointsBet for the same outcome.

Considering the +900 price point for this outcome, this is my favorite prop available this week. Both Fitzpatrick and McIlroy have dominated this course and both are in superb form heading into the week.

To Miss the Cut: Sepp Straka (+150 via FanDuel)

Straka's victory last week at the Honda Classic was impressive, as he overcame a five-stroke deficit to win. This was his first career win on the PGA Tour since joining in 2019.

In spite of his victory last week, I am not prepared to overlook a solid number when it comes to his chances of missing the cut this week. Straka missed the cut each of the last two years at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

In those two previous appearances, he was not even close to making the cut. Straka has lost 2.00 SG: total per round over four rounds at Bay Hill. Even after winning The Honda Classic, he is still losing strokes to the field overall this season.

His price to miss the cut should be significantly lower than the +150 we are being offered. We are only receiving such a generous plus price for this prop because he won the tournament last week. Despite the fact that he won, he remains a below-average golfer on the PGA Tour. The +150 to miss the cut is a prop I will be looking to profit from.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

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Arnold Palmer Invitational prop picks made on3/2/2022 at 2:18 a.m. ET.