MLB Player Props & Expert Picks Today: Ohtani to Tee Off on Diamondbacks
Wednesday's MLB slate features compelling action from afternoon through evening, as we offer our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
It's the best day of the week for baseball fans. Games began just after lunch on the East Coast, as teams prepared to travel to the next destination on Thursday.
The Minnesota Twins and Washington Nationals began the action on this Wednesday slate, and that was the focus of our first player prop. Now we're looking to the evening slate after several intriguing early games.
An AL East showdown between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays at 6:50 p.m. ET highlights those later contests. World Series odds contenders collide when the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees clash at Yankee Stadium at 7:05 p.m. ET.
We cap off the day with an NL West tilt between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers and their duo of MLB MVP odds favorites. First pitch for Wednesday's final game is set for 10:10 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday’s MLB expert picks
- Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 total bases (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jake Irvin Under 4.5 strikeouts (+116 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 2.5 (+120) | Over 2.5 (+120) | Over 2.5 (+115) | Over 1.5 (-148) | Over 2.5 (+115) |
Game info: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers | Moneyline: Dodgers (-300 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-125)/Under 7.5 (+105) via Betway | Start time: 10:10 p.m. ET
What do we really need to say about Shohei Ohtani to convince you to back his Over total bases prop? Is it enough that he owns the best wRC+ and slugging percentage in the majors? OK, how about the fact that he's hitting .356 in 2024 and his batted-ball data suggests the two-way star has actually been somewhat unlucky, as he owns a .363 expected batting average?
I went through all of these numbers Wednesday when I finally took the plunge and bet on Ohtani to win NL MVP in 2024. His teammate Mookie Betts has put together an incredible first couple of months, but Ohtani is in a league of his own at the plate thus far. And his projections for Wednesday's game suggest he'll continue to decimate opposing pitchers.
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Ohtani squares off against Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson, who absolutely stinks. He owns a 7.06 ERA in 2024, and his 40% hard-hit rate tells us that, sure, his .415 BABIP is due for serious regression, but it will still be mighty high if he can't generate weaker contact.
Based on Ohtani's projections for Wednesday, we're getting a whopping 80% positive expected value on this bet. All of our best sports betting apps except for Caesars offer an alt total of 2.5, which is the higher EV play than betting Ohtani's Over 1.5 total bases at minus money.
Best odds: +120 via DraftKings
Jake Irvin Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 4.5 (-105) | Under 4.5 (-130) | Under 4.5 (-110) | Under 4.5 (-106) | Under 4.5 (+100) |
Game info: Twins vs. Nationals | Moneyline: Twins (-135 via Betway) | Total: Over 9.5 (+110)/Under 9.5 (-140) via Betway | Start time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Washington Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin managed nearly a strikeout per inning through his first four starts, punching out 20 batters through 23 innings. However, he's since slowed down, racking up just 18 in the 27 2/3 frames since. That puts him at 6.75 K/9 for the campaign, one of the lowest averages by any qualified starting pitcher.
Fortunately, for Irvin, the Minnesota Twins strike out at the ninth-highest rate in baseball. However, they can also score runs in bunches, as Irvin witnessed on Tuesday when the Twins tagged his teammates for 10 runs. Minnesota also possesses more left-handed-hitting talent who didn't play on Tuesday.
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On Wednesday, Irvin is projected to rack up only 4.43 strikeouts based on the average from two of our trusted models. Based on that expected total, we're getting better than 17% positive expected value through these +116 odds at BetRivers.
Most of our other best sports betting sites are trading Irvin's Under at minus money, with only bet365 offering a remotely competitive price at +100. Meanwhile, Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is sitting at -127 to the Under after opening at +109.
Best odds: +116 via BetRivers
MLB player props made Wednesday at 8 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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