Skip to main content

Puerto Rico Open Picks and Preview: Mixed Bag in Attendance Opposite Arnold Palmer Invitational

Esten McLaren

Last Updated: March 1, 2022 10:32 AM EST • 4 min 17 sec read.

PEBBLE BEACH, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 04: Austin Smotherman of the United States prepares to play from the fourth tee during the second round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at the Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course on February 04, 2022 in Pebble Beach, California. Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Orlando Ramirez / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

With many of the PGA Tour's top stars in Orlando, Florida, for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the field is wide open in Puerto Rico. We look at the odds and offer our top golf picks for the 2022 Puerto Rico Open.

World No. 82 Chan Kim is the top-ranked golfer in the field for the 2022 Puerto Rico Open at Grand Reserve Golf Club. He'll be battling a mixed bag of attendees that includes former world No. 1 Luke Donald, former major winner Jason Dufner, and recent PGA Tour champs Jim Herman, Tyler Duncan, Sung Kang, Nate Lashley, Richy Werenski, and Martin Trainer.

A win this week will be a little more coveted than usual at this event after Viktor Hovland and Tony Finau recently broke through the "Puerto Rico Open curse" with other PGA Tour wins. However, there are only 300 FedEx Cup points up for grabs compared to the 550 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This week's main field is headlined by world No. 1 Jon Rahm and past champion Rory McIlroy.

Here are my top outright picks for the PGA Tour's Puerto Rico Open at Grand Reserve Golf Club in Rio Grande.

SEE ALSO: Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Preview

Puerto Rico Open Odds

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hnWg9/1/

SEE ALSO: 2022 Masters Picks

Puerto Rico Open Odds Analysis

With far more eyes on the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, the Puerto Rico Open can be viewed as a bettor's paradise. A lack of familiarity with the names in the field and no clear public favorite have the odds boosted across the board. 

That begins with the discrepancy between Mark Hubbard and Matthias Schwab as the betting favorite with odds of +1800 or better. In contrast, Rahm is the consensus favorite in Orlando with odds as low as +750 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

It's more important than ever to shop around if betting on the event in Rio Grande. The difference in the odds on Austin Smotherman, Brian Stuard, and Ryan Brehm across our top sportsbooks stand out. Kim, the only golfer in the field inside the top 100 of the Official World Golf Ranking, is as high as +5000 to win at BetMGM.

Grand Reserve Golf Club Course Profile

The Tom Kite design in Rio Grande is a behemoth at 7,506 yards and playing to a par of 72. Harsh winds make matters only worse; however, the last four winning scores were all -15 or lower.

Despite the length, nine holes played below par last year, including each of the final four to set up for an exciting finish. All four par 5s played below par, even with two on the back nine extending past 600 yards. Three of the four par 3s top 200 yards. The most common par-4 range is between 400-450 yards.

Of the 10 golfers to finish T-7 or better last year, only one averaged 300 yards or better in driving distance. Sixteen golfers, including 2021 champion Branden Grace, hit at least 75% of greens in regulation. Six golfers hit better than 70% of fairways.

Puerto Rico Open Stats

Two of the last six runnings of this event went to a playoff with two others decided by a single stroke. Grace graduated to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Hovland, the 2020 champ, is fourth by the odds in Orlando this week.

Puerto Rican national Rafael Campos leads the field with 37 career rounds played at Grand Reserve. However, he has lost an average of 1.21 strokes per round to the field, despite three top-10 finishes in his last four appearances. 

Most in the field try to use this event as a launchpad, a la Grace, Hovland, and Finau, so course history is fairly limited at the top of the odds board. There's also no shotlink data for Grand Reserve GC. Here are our key stats for the Puerto Rico Open:

Strokes gained: off-the-teeSG: around-the-greenPar-5 scoringPar-4 efficiency: 400-450 yardsBirdie or better percentage

Puerto Rico Open Picks

Austin Smotherman (+4000 viaPointsBet)Chan Kim (+5000 via BetMGM)Michael Gligic (+13000 via DraftKings)

SEE ALSO: 2022 Masters Picks

Puerto Rico Open Outrights

Smotherman (+4000)

The 27-year-old PGA Tour rookie is an excellent example of someone the books don't know how to price this week with odds ranging from +2500 at DraftKings to the +4000 we're betting at PointsBet.

A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, Smotherman was one of the top stories at the Farmers Insurance Open while going on to finish T-11. He tied for 33rd against a weaker field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the next week before missing the cut at The Honda Classic. However, this will be the weakest PGA Tour field he has competed against.

Despite the missed cut last week, he sets up well at Grand Reserve GC. He's 21st on Tour in par-4 efficiency: 400-450 yards, and he's averaging 0.43 SG: off-the-tee and 0.49 SG: approach through his 17 measured rounds this season.

Kim (+5000)

After winning the Japan Tour's Dunlop Phoenix Tournament, Kim wrapped up 2021 with finishes of T-45 and T-22 on that tour to finish the year at No. 62 in the OWGR. However, he started 2022 with back-to-back missed cuts at the Sony Open in Hawaii and The American Express. He rebounded for a T-65 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for his best finish in North America since a T-23 at the 2021 PGA Championship.

This is about the value on the top-ranked golfer in the field. Eighteen golfers have lower odds than Kim at BetMGM, while he's +4000 at both DraftKings and PointsBet. Like most players in the field, he's making his debut at Grand Reserve this week, but his strengths of 0.64 SG: approach and 0.27 SG: around-the-green on the season are well-suited for any venue.

Kim's also 27th in par-4 efficiency: 400-450 yards and T-90 in birdie-or-better percentage.

Gligic (+13000)

The Canadian makes a third straight appearance in this event after following up his 2020 missed cut with a T-63 finish last year. While Gligic missed the cut at both The Honda Classic and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he has been starting strong all year. His Round 1 average of 69.50 through eight events this season is tied with Matt Fitzpatrick for T-87 on Tour. A strong start in this field can help to create separation on the leaderboard and get him safely to the weekend.

Gligic is also tied for 43rd on Tour with a par-5 scoring average of 4.52. He struggles on the shorter par 4s, but he just needs to take advantage of the easier scoring opportunities to have success this week. Gligic averaged 293.4 yards per drive and hit 73.6% of greens in regulation in this event last year.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 3/1/2022 at 3:20 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Esten McLaren
Esten is the Senior Publishing Editor for SportsbookReview.com. He previously spent time as the Managing Editor of SportsbookWire.com, and he has done freelance work in sports betting for TheLines, PlayPicks, and BettingPros. He's well versed in the NFL, NHL, MLB, and NBA, but his true passion is with the PGA Tour. Esten's always happy to chase a long shot and will never shy away from a futures bet, but he'll never stop backing Rory McIlroy in majors. He's also a recovering Ottawa Senators and Atlanta Falcons fan. Always bet against the Toronto Maple Leafs at plus money.