UTEP vs. FIU Prediction, Picks & Odds Week 7: Will Miners Improve Poor ATS Record?
Another college football Wednesday features a Conference USA clash as the FIU Panthers host the UTEP Miners, and we have you covered with our top UTEP-FIU prediction based on the best college football odds.
UTEP’s chances against Louisiana Tech last week took a huge hit when starting quarterback Gavin Hardison was forced to sit out following warmups. The Miners ended up rotating three quarterbacks in their 24-10 loss.
Meanwhile, after a three-game winning streak, FIU has lost back-to-back games. It's been outscored 72-23 in those two contests.
As part of our college football predictions for Week 7, here is our best UTEP vs. FIU prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UTEP vs. FIU prediction: Week 7
UTEP -1.5 (-110 via FanDuel, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Editor's note: The spread has now shifted significantly to UTEP +3 at all of our best sportsbooks, with Caesars and FanDuel offering the top odds at -105.
UTEP is one of the worst teams against the spread in the country after covering in just one of its first six games. The average margin of defeat in the school's last four contests is 20.8 points. However, we're making this contrarian play as we expect Hardison to be under center this week after he tried to give it a go last week. However, his status does remain uncertain ahead of kickoff.
UTEP should not be undervalued for its lack of success against stronger competition (it has played two Power Five teams and a UNLV team that is currently 4-1), as it is an experienced bunch that is strong in the trenches. The Miners returned eight defensive players who totaled 200-plus snaps last year from a unit that ranked second in the conference in rush defense (136 yards per game) and total defense (352.9 yards per game). We're looking for the offensive line to eventually find success in conference play after returning four starters from last year’s squad.
Behind that veteran offensive line, the Miners entered last week with a top 70 Rushing Success Rate while running the ball at the 58th-highest rate. That is a great way to shorten the game, especially against an FIU team whose staple defense is a 3-3-5, which should offer many running lanes with light boxes. In addition, FIU entered last week among one of the worst FBS teams in Havoc allowed (130th), so we expect few sustained drives against the Miners defense.
UTEP ranks 132nd among 133 FBS teams in turnover margin per game, but should have some positive regression against an FIU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Havoc. Conversely, FIU entered last week with the fifth-worst ranking in Offensive Quality Drives, so the Miners are in a tremendous buy-low spot given their lack of ATS success this season.
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UTEP vs. FIU best odds
FanDuel, BetMGM (-110)
FanDuel and BetMGM offer the best value for New Mexico State backers, as they are a whole point lower than the highest point spread at a competing sportsbook. With such a low point spread, many bettors will feel compelled to play the Miners on the moneyline.
However, the lowest odds offered are -125 at FanDuel and DraftKings, so we are choosing to save the $15 worth of juice and hope UTEP does not win by exactly one point.
UTEP vs. FIU odds
UTEP vs. FIU odds analysis
The line movement on this matchup has differed at various sportsbooks. FanDuel opened with the highest number of any shop (UTEP -3.5), but that line was bet through the key number of three within a couple of hours. Meanwhile, Caesars opened at -1, and the line went in UTEP’s favor as high as -2.5 before settling back down at -2.
FanDuel and BetMGM are the only sportsbooks offering a total of 44.5, while all other competitors are at 44. FanDuel opened with the highest total of any shop (46.5), and has seen the biggest drop (two points) thus far. Both teams have seen the Under cash in four of their six games.
UTEP vs. FIU game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Riccardo Silva Stadium, Miami, FL
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 86 degrees, 46% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph ESE
UTEP vs. Florida International prediction made 10/9/23 at 6:14 a.m. ET.
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