Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
The annual Red River Rivalry returns to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas as No. 1 Texas looks to remain atop the AP poll with a win over Oklahoma, but my Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction calls for a defensive struggle similar to the last two meetings.
This is the 14th matchup between the schools where one team was ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll, the most for any rivalry in poll history (since 1936). Both teams come in rested off a bye week, but I explain why that gives the defenses an advantage in a rematch of a game where both starting quarterbacks (Arch Manning and John Mateer) struggled last season.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET today (ABC) and Texas is a 7.5-point betting favorite.
Texas vs. Oklahoma picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Oklahoma +7.5 (-109 via bet365) | 1 unit to win 0.92 units |
| O/U: Under 39.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.83 units
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Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 39.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
This is the only game involving a ranked team this week with a total in the 30s, and it isn’t low enough given the familiarity between these programs and the history of this Red River Rivalry of late.
Just one offensive touchdown was scored in last year’s 23-6 Texas win, and not until the third quarter, as John Mateer especially struggled with three interceptions. He faces an even more stout Longhorns defense this time around, and one who is ranked in the top three in net adjusted EPA per play and the top 16 in success and havoc rate.
Mateer again seems to be regressing, with four interceptions in his last three starts and only eclipsing a 52 QBR once in that span.
Mateer’s turnovers could also be a case for the Over since his five turnovers in his last three games against Power 4 opponents have led to 28 points (two of those were returned for touchdowns and another two were returned inside the 11-yard line). But I expect positive regression in that department and for the coaching staff to call a more conservative game so that he doesn’t finish with another six turnover-worthy plays like he did against Texas last year.
The best number and price for Under backers is through BetMGM, as other top sports betting sites have an O/U a full point lower at 38.5.
📡 SBR Edge: Post-bye Unders
Both of these teams have been profitable to the Under off bye weeks in recent seasons. Since 2021, the Under has cashed in eight of Oklahoma's 12 games off a bye, while the Under is 5-4 in Texas' nine such games.
Manning has yet to prove it against top competition consistently
Outside of one outstanding quarter against Ohio State, Arch Manning still does not inspire the most confidence when facing top-tier competition. In a true road game against Tennessee, the Volunteers held Manning to a season-low 14 completions and no touchdown passes for the first time this season. But half of the Cotton Bowl will be Oklahoma fans, and the Sooners will be the second defense ranked inside the SP+ top-6 he has faced.
Manning is coming off a season where he completed 56% of his passes 0-10 yards downfield. That ranked 112th out of 121 FBS quarterbacks. And with Oklahoma ranking 78th in offensive SP+, Manning may not need to take big shots downfield if the running game can once again grind out a victory.
Score prediction: Texas 20, Oklahoma 17
Live Texas vs. Oklahoma odds
Texas vs. Oklahoma opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas -350 | Oklahoma +280
- Spread: Texas -6.5 (-110) | Oklahoma +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
How to watch Texas vs. Oklahoma: Week 6
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Cotton Bowl (Dallas, Texas)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: WatchESPN/ESPN+
