Stanford vs. Utah Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Utes Still Have Pac-12 Chance
Among Saturday’s late-night college football action is a Pac-12 showdown between the Stanford Cardinal and Utah Utes.
The Utes rushed for a school-record 441 yards and had three 100-yard rushers in a dominant 52-7 win over the Cardinal last year.
Stanford (2-7 ATS, 4-4-1 O/U) surprised several people with an upset road win over Notre Dame last month. The Cardinal followed it up with another one-point win the next week against Arizona State but lost most recently by 38 at home to Washington State.
Meanwhile, Utah (5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U) continues to stay in the hunt for a return trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Utes’ only conference loss came five weeks ago at UCLA. Utah rattled off three straight wins since including a 25-point rout of Arizona last Saturday and now ranks 13th in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings.
Here are our Stanford vs. Utah Week 11 college football betting picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and BetRivers Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale)
Stanford vs. Utah Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 12, 10 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
- Weather: 21 degrees, 9.5% chance of precipitation, 4-5 mph winds SE
Stanford vs. Utah Odds
Stanford vs. Utah Odds Analysis
Bookmakers showed Utah plenty of respect with a hefty opening line of 23 points. Enough sharp bettors across the market didn’t believe that number was quite high enough. The consensus spread now sits at Utah -24.
The latest betting percentages at DraftKings reveal an interesting dynamic with regard to the point spread. At the time of writing, Utah only holds a 65% majority of total tickets. However, 96% of the ATS handle is on the Utes.
Meanwhile, the game total experienced a rather significant adjustment after opening at 47.5. The Over/Under line since increased by a full six points or more. The prevailing consensus now sits at 54. At DraftKings, 71% of all bets and more than 80% of the money is on the Over.
Stanford vs. Utah Picks
- Side: Stanford +24.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ★
- Total: Under 54 (-108 via BetRivers) ★★
- Prop: First half spread — Utah -13 (-112 via FanDuel) ★★★★
Stanford vs. Utah ATS Pick
Stanford +24.5 (-115) ★
Not sure if Stanford actually made Scott Van Pelt’s list of selections in “Winners” this week, but taking the points with the Cardinal would qualify as a ‘Hold Onto Your Butts Special’.
After being a game-time scratch two weeks ago, Utah quarterback Cameron Rising returned against Arizona. While the junior likely plays Saturday night, Utah has to feel good about its chances of beating Stanford with or without him. Even if Rising plays, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pulled before the end.
Rising may not be the only Utes starter removed for some extra rest. Knowing the Utes have a road trip to Oregon next week, the last thing they need is to lose a key contributor to injury against lowly Stanford.
Stanford fell behind other Pac-12 contenders and came back in garbage time to make the final margin respectable. With such a massive point spread, bettors should consider the possibility of a backdoor cover. The Cardinal actually would have covered a 24-point spread in their losses to USC, Washington and Oregon.
It’s worth noting that FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a 24.5 point spread. Since rival shops sit on the other side of 24, there’s no denying the market value present in this line.
Stanford vs. Utah O/U Pick
Under 54 (-108) ★★
Many of Stanford’s previous games this season went Over the betting total thanks to the garbage time scenario discussed above. No wonder the market moved so heavily on the Over for Saturday’s matchup.
Simply following the line move and playing the Over won't help, because the best of the number is now a distant memory. With the total increasing anywhere from 6-7 points depending on the sportsbook, bettors need an entire touchdown to push the game Over. The best option is to buy back on the Under.
If Utah can build a comfortable lead and pull its starters early, prospects for the Under hitting certainly improve. The Utes could very easily get close to 54 points themselves. However, with a much bigger fish to fry next week, one has to believe head coach Kyle Whittingham shies away from running up the score.
Utah’s defense ranks a bit better than other Pac-12 teams that Stanford found success against. With the secondary being the unit’s primary strength, Stanford QB Tanner McKee and the Cardinal could very well be shut out entirely so long as the Utes’ starters are in.
Stanford vs. Utah Prop Pick
First half spread: Utah -13 (-112) ★★★★
Laying less than two touchdowns on the first-half spread with Utah provides a much better option than trying to survive garbage time shenanigans on the full-game number. With other sportsbooks listing the first-half line at Utah -13.5, bettors once again should take advantage of FanDuel's extra value.
Why betting Utah to cover the first half is ideal, consider Stanford’s previous games against other four Pac-12 teams that are currently ranked. The Cardinal lost to USC by 13, to Washington by 18, to Oregon by 18 and to UCLA by 25.
As for halftime margins in those four matchups, none of them were pretty. After two quarters, Stanford trailed by 21, 10, 28 and 18 points, respectively against those four opponents.
Where to Bet on Stanford vs. Utah Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Stanford vs. Utah picks made on 11/11/2022 at 6:21 p.m. ET
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