Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 4 Parlay

Top Sportsbooks have released their odds for Saturday's Week 4 college football action. One game, in particular, interests me as worth investing in: Nebraska vs. Michigan State. For reasons that I will explain, you should play both spread and total for this game. Let's maximize our profit with a two-leg parlay.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 07:00 PM EDT at Spartan Stadium

The Oklahoma Game and Perception 

Public perception of the Cornhuskers should deservedly be high after they nearly upended third-ranked Oklahoma in its own stadium. However, doubters persist because Nebraska has developed a reputation for making a lot of mistakes for finding ways to shoot itself in the foot. This reputation may be in the minds of doubters who recall the Cornhuskers' season-opening loss to Illinois.

But there are two things to note: Nebraska has played solid football since that season opener, going 3-0 ATS while covering the giant spread against Fordham, easily covering against a usually good Buffalo squad, and then almost taking Oklahoma to overtime as 22.5-point underdogs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqxhqUuG7SQ

I've seen the claim made that Nebraska tends to live up its reputation as a messy football team after big games. There is some truth to this claim, but it is limited to Cornhusker victories, like the 18-point loss to Illinois last year that followed a massive win over high-profile Penn State. In the same year, the Cornhuskers almost upset double-digit favorite Iowa on the road and then won by 10 the following week at Purdue. Similarly, in 2018, Nebraska crushed Illinois a week after giving Ohio State a scare in its own stadium: the Buckeyes won by less than a touchdown.

Know for your NCAAF Picks that this is still a hungry football team that is looking to win more games and looking to win enough games to make a bowl game.

https://twitter.com/HuskerFBNation/status/1439293565591441410?s=20

Adrian Martinez 

Despite what his doubters say, this year, Martinez has only thrown one interception in four games. This interception was an incredible one-handed grab made by a Sooner defensive back. Plus, the situation was 4th down, so Martinez had no choice but to throw the ball. It was a fine pass, but coverage was tight and the Sooner defensive back made a highlight-reel grab.

The Cornhusker doubters point to Michigan State's performance last week against Hurricane quarterback D'Eriq King. But King and Martinez are not the same player. While King is mobile, there are a ton of mobile quarterbacks and they are not blindly comparable with each other. King's big rushing totals have come typically against poor defenses or as the result of a single big play.

Quarterback Adrian Martinez #2 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP.

As a runner, Martinez is on a different level than King, as evident in, for example, his 102 rushing yards last year against what was then a loaded Northwestern defense. So, limiting King's rushing yards says nothing about Michigan State's ability to limit Martinez's.

To limit Martinez, Michigan State will rely on a linebacking crew that they explicitly felt the need this offseason to reinforce with transfers. One key transfer is current starting linebacker Quavaris Crouch, who historically struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks. Last year, as Crouch was a Volunteer, opposing quarterback Kellen Mond was one yard away from reaching a season-high in rushing yards against Tennessee largely because of Crouch.

Passing Game 

With our sports betting in mind, I think one has to expect Martinez to run well against Crouch and the rest of the Spartan defense. But Martinez will also succeed through the air against a problematic Spartan secondary that lacked the confidence and the ability to limit Hurricane wide receivers last week.

https://twitter.com/MSU_Football/status/1440355922971217930?s=20

Last week provided an opportunity to see the Spartan secondary line up against real athletes. Michigan State often chose to yield a tremendously soft cushion, yet this cushion did not deter King from amassing big plays through the air that helped him reach 388 passing yards. Against Oklahoma, Cornhusker wide receivers and former four-star prospects Zavier Betts and Omar Manning achieved a high catch-to-target ratio as they made difference-making plays to help keep Nebraska in the game.

It is this two-dimensionality -- Martinez's mobility and his passing ability -- and this big-play ability both on the ground and in the air that makes me like Nebraska to cover for your best bets.

Michigan State Can't Keep Up 

One respect in which the Spartan offense is limited is in its downfield passing game. Payton Thorne often lacks enough time to connect on big plays. His lack of pass protection -- Michigan State ranks 87th in quarterback sack rate -- sends him on the run, which limits the field for him, and which doesn't provide him with opportunities to scramble for big gains like Martinez does.

A ton of returning front seven players for Nebraska help the team reliably amass quarterback pressures, even if the team only ranks 52nd in sacks per game, which is a stat deflated by quick-passing opponents like Buffalo. Against teams named not Youngstown State, Thorne has been more comfortable with a more conservative approach that relies on his teammates to go to work.

https://twitter.com/HuskerFBNation/status/1439258926411702275?s=20

The reason why I think the Spartans will still score enough for the "over" is the big-play ability of its athletes in space, like speedster Jalen Nailor, who has the speed that the more physical of Nebraska's best cornerbacks will struggle to contain. Plus, the Cornhusker run defense has been awful in limiting opposing running backs and this is an area that Michigan State can exploit with Kenneth Walker, who has 493 rushing yards on 8.6 YPC so far. Walker's success will help the play-action and bootleg open up for Thorne.

For the above reasons, parlay the Cornhuskers with the "over." Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

NCAAF Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.