Oklahoma vs. TCU Picks, Predictions College Football Week 5: Sooners Dominate Series
Oklahoma is coming off its first loss of the 2022 season but is still a moderate road favorite against TCU. Check out our favorite picks for the Week 5 matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and TCU Horned Frogs.
Oklahoma has won the last eight head-to-head meetings with TCU. The Sooners will hope that's the recipe to bounce back from last week's 41-34 loss to Kansas State, in which they closed as 13.5-point favorites.
The Horned Frogs are on a three-game winning streak with each of those victories coming by at least an eight-point margin.
Check out all of our top college football Week 5 picks here.
Here are our Oklahoma vs. TCU college football picks for Week 5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Oklahoma vs. TCU Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 1, noon ET
TV: ABC
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Weather: 85 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 13-mph winds
Oklahoma vs. TCU Odds
Oklahoma vs. TCU Odds Analysis
Bettors are split on this spread with 55% of the tickets on Oklahoma but TCU has drawn 70% of the cash. The spread has grown from Oklahoma -4.5 to a consensus line of -5 as of Saturday morning.
The total has shot up to a flat 70 from the opening line of 67.5. Sixty-six percent of the tickets account for 75% of the handle on the Over.
Oklahoma vs. TCU Picks
Oklahoma vs. TCU ATS Pick
TCU +6.5 (-107) ★★★
When Oddsmakers made Oklahoma 13.5-point favorites over Kansas State last week, they set a trap for bettors. This week, the trap doesn’t seem as purposeful, but it is interesting to see such a small line for a series that has been so one-sided over the last decade.
Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 1,089 yards and 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions, and he has led the offense to an average of 40.3 points per game. The defense is allowing 17.8 points per game. But can those numbers be trusted, or are they inflated by the schedule they’ve faced?
The Horned Frogs haven’t played anyone great this season, but their result against SMU was never in doubt last week. As long as Max Duggan can take care of the ball, which he has done all season, TCU may even be able to spring the upset this week.
Oklahoma vs. TCU O/U Pick
Under 67.5 (+100) ★★
Both teams played in shootouts last week, and with how these two offenses have been able to move the ball this season, the Over seems like the obvious play.
However, the total is not the highest of the week, and this is going to be a very public game. So why isn’t it up at 70 or higher? Because both of these groups have had success running the ball this season. Oklahoma is averaging 231.3 yards per game, while the Horned Frogs are averaging 215.3.
With an emphasis on running, the final should be in the high 50s.
Oklahoma vs. TCU Prop
First half Under 32.5 (-105) ★★
Last week saw a lot of first-half scoring for both of these teams. But college football is a week-to-week game.
Neither of these teams has been a consistent scoring threat in the first half this season, as shown in the Sooners’ win over Kent State and the Horned Frogs’ win over Colorado. These teams could explode, but again, the running games are going to be the emphasis, especially early as these teams try to feel each other out.
Where to Bet on Oklahoma vs. TCU
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Oklahoma vs. TCU picks made 9/27/2022 at 1:03 p.m. ET
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