Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Week 1 College Football Picks: Buckeyes Favored Heavily in Key Battle for Irish

Henry John

Last Updated: September 8, 2022 5:24 PM EDT • 4 min 3 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Ohio State Buckeyes carries the ball after a reception during the second quarter against the Utah Utes in the Rose Bowl Game. Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images via AFP.

It may be a top-five matchup based on the preseason AP poll, but the Ohio State Buckeyes are massive betting favorites over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The fact the Irish have garnered a lot of support from public bettors makes laying the hefty spread that much more appealing.

It certainly doesn’t get much better than a top-five showdown to help kick off the brand-new college football season! The marquee game on the Week 1 slate will take place under the Saturday night lights as Notre Dame visits Ohio State.

With Brian Kelly departing for LSU, new head coach Marcus Freeman starts a new era at Notre Dame. The fifth-ranked Fighting Irish won 11 games last season. Freeman served as the acting head coach in the team’s two-point Fiesta Bowl loss to Oklahoma State.

Ohio State is one of a select few teams where a Rose Bowl appearance is considered a letdown. Head coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes got past Utah in Pasadena to conclude an 11-win campaign. However, for a fanbase that expects to contend for national championships on an annual basis, it wasn’t exactly the most satisfying season. With 14 starters back, expectations in Columbus are sky-high in 2022.

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 1 matchup between Notre Dame and Ohio State (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Game Info

Date: Saturday, Sept. 3rd, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: ABC
Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Weather: 71 degrees, 45% chance of precipitation, 5-10-mph winds S/SE

Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Odds Analysis

Even with oddsmakers opening Ohio State as a two-touchdown favorite, the line movement for this top-five showdown has still favored the Buckeyes. At the time of writing, OSU is a consensus 17-point favorite. Several of our top-rated sportsbooks are even offering an extra hook to try and entice buy-back on Notre Dame.

The total first opened at 58. Since then, the betting market has caused a slight increase to 59.5. A number of shops continue to offer an even 59.

Despite the 3-point line move in Ohio State’s favor, Notre Dame has taken a slight majority (52%) of all ATS bets placed at DraftKings. The Fighting Irish have also attracted 66% of the total handle wagered to date.

Meanwhile, the betting splits on the total mirror the line move. More than 80% of the tickets and the handle are on the Over.

Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Picks

Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Predictions

Ohio State -16.5 (-110) ★★

From a talent standpoint, Ohio State holds a decisive edge over Notre Dame. Even when the Fighting Irish have been successful in previous years, they have largely failed to hold their own against the top teams. Case in point, Notre Dame lost at home to Cincinnati last season. What’s more, the Irish were blown out in their two previous trips to the College Football Playoff.

With the general consensus viewing Ohio State as one of the two best teams entering the season, there is reason to believe that Notre Dame could prove to be extremely overmatched Saturday. On top of an overall talent deficit, the Irish have a new head coach and a new quarterback.

While there have been several positive reports regarding sophomore signal-caller Tyler Buchner, having to face a top-tier defense right out of the gate is hardly ideal. The Buckeyes’ defense was the weak link of the team a year ago. Coach Day has since hired new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.

After doing a phenomenal job at Oklahoma State, one has to believe Knowles will also be successful in Columbus. The Buckeyes return eight starters on defense and should be really strong.

Add to what could be the best offense in the country and OSU is more than capable of blowing out a Notre Dame outfit that is a bit overrated coming into the season.

Under 59.5 (-114) ★★

Last year, Ohio State gave up 31 and 35 points in its first two games, respectively. The Buckeyes did improve defensively during Big Ten play, but the last two games saw Michigan and Utah each surpass the 40-point threshold against them.

It was clear that if Ohio State wanted to return to the College Football Playoff, the team needed sustained improvement on defense. That would explain the big-time hiring of Knowles to coordinate the unit. Bettors should expect the Buckeyes to seek a statement performance right out of the gate on that side of the ball.

More than likely, the betting total outcome for this game will come down to Ohio State's offense. Quarterback C.J. Stroud enters 2022 as the Heisman Trophy favorite. Sure, OSU lost some of its top receivers to the NFL, but the skill positions are fully reloaded. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. asserted himself in the Rose Bowl as someone to watch for in 2022. Of course, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also poised to have a massive year.

The question becomes whether Notre Dame can offer any kind of substantial defensive resistance to Ohio State’s potent attack. With six of the top seven tacklers from last year returning, one has to believe the Irish can hold their own at least for a time.

Notre Dame Under 20.5 (-120) ★★★

If Ohio State’s defense is improved from the start of play last fall, one has to wonder how Notre Dame will be able to score. The Fighting Irish exceeded offensive expectations last season with just three returning starters. With seven starters back in 2022, the Irish should theoretically improve.

On the bright side, several youngsters gained ample experience along the O-line last season. On the downside, Notre Dame’s strength of schedule likely influenced the unit’s improved play in the season's second half. The other factor is that the Irish plugged in an experienced quarterback, Wisconsin transfer, Jack Coan.

This season, Notre Dame must replace Coan, as well as its top rusher and its top wide receiver from a season ago. Buchner saw game reps at QB every week last year, but he was not the starter. With significant question marks at wide receiver, surpassing 20 points against mighty Ohio State could prove to be a tall order.

Where to Bet on Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Notre Dame-Ohio State picks made 9/1/2022 at 1:54 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.