College Football Best Bets for Week 9: Expert Picks & Predictions

My college football best bets for Week 9 look to improve upon last week's mixed bag, as I went 2-0 on ATS plays involving ranked teams but failed to cash both plays that related to totals. 

I follow a similar model with my top four plays for Week 8, including why Auburn is a live underdog in an SEC matchup against No. 12 Ole Miss and why Bill Belichick’s North Carolina squad won’t have any answers for No. 1 Miami. 

College football best bets & expert picks: Week 9

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 9 based on the latest college football odds.

Picks submitted: Oct. 28 at 8:45 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.  

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +3.5 units

Best college football bets this week

Auburn +13.5 (-112 via DraftKings)

Ole Miss has won 15 consecutive home games since 2024, so I’m not calling for an outright upset like the one Auburn pulled on the road against then-No. 1 Georgia. But the Tigers secondary ranks in the top 20 nationally with eight interceptions, and Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been known to be careless with the football at times.

Against a Longhorns defense that was without one of the best players in the country, Colin Simmons, Chambliss recorded his career-worst QBR (60.3), completion percentage (48%), interception total (three), and yards per dropback (4.5). 

Auburn can also make offense uncomfortable as it plays at a pace faster than any other FBS team.

Play to: +12.5, pass at +12 or lower

New Mexico-San Jose State Over 41.5 (-112 via FanDuel)

San Jose State has averaged just 16 points per game while going 2-3 over the last five games. But that hasn’t stopped its offense from trying to maximize possessions, as the Spartans offense spends fewer than 24 seconds between plays.

As the two-touchdown favorite, New Mexico will likely not mind the extra possessions, especially with the advantages it has in the trenches. Three different Lobos players ran for at least 77 yards in a win over Hawaii two weeks ago, and New Mexico’s top-ranked defense in terms of Havoc created entering last week can be counted upon to force a turnover or short field for its offense.

Play to: 42.5, pass at 43

Nevada-UCLA Under 44.5 (-112 via BetMGM)

UCLA gets a one-week reprieve from its Big Ten schedule to welcome Nevada to the Rose Bowl. As long as the Bruins continue to win games (they don’t have a ranked team left on their schedule), a College Football Playoff spot will be a foregone conclusion. Thus, unlike some two-loss SEC teams that need to boost their CFP resumes, I expect a vanilla gameplan from UCLA. 

Nevada’s defense ranks 120th or worse in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards. While that could be an argument to take the Bruins to cover, I’m banking on UCLA using that as an opportunity to shorten the game, maximize time of possession, and keep everyone healthy for its run of four straight conference games to end the regular season.

Play to: 44, pass at 43.5 or lower

Miami -13.5 (-120 via FanDuel)

North Carolina owns a five-game winning streak against Miami. I expect Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal to be driving that point home all week, especially while trying to prepare for a Bill Belichick-coached team on the other sideline.

Miami’s 18th-ranked rush offense has a big advantage over a Tar Heels run defense than allows 155 rushing yards per game (91st). And the Tar Heels certainly don’t live in opponents’ backfields, as UNC makes fewer stops at or behind the line of scrimmage than all but two defenses in FBS.

It will be interesting to see how North Carolina keeps its composure if Miami comes at the Tar Heels in waves early. Belichick’s North Carolina teams are just 1-6 when opponents score first.

Play to: -14, pass at -14.5