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Brennan Armstrong of the NC State Wolfpack throws the ball as we share our favorite NC State vs. Virginia prediction.
Brennan Armstrong of the NC State Wolfpack passes the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Carter-Finley Stadium on Sept. 9, 2023 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Photo by Lance King/Getty Images via AFP.

To help you out with Friday's stacked college football slate, our NC State vs. Virginia prediction is based on the best college football odds, as we look at whether the Wolfpack can take advantage of this woeful Cavaliers squad. 

We're offering up our college football best bets for Friday's rare four-game slate and the marquee matchup on ESPN has NC State visiting Virginia.

The NC State Wolfpack (2-1) haven't drawn much positive attention for their start to the 2023 season, but they've been relatively solid. They won the games they were supposed to and lost to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, as expected.

Week 4 provides another opportunity for NC State to meet expectations, this time by handing the Virginia Cavaliers (0-3) - one of the worst Power Five teams - another loss.

To accompany your college football Week 4 predictions, here is our best NC State vs. Virginia prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NC State vs. Virginia prediction: Week 4

NC State -9 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Across a reasonable sampling of opponents, Virginia simply hasn't kept up with a more well-rounded NC State. Both the Maryland Terrapins and Tennessee Volunteers are outside the top 40 in overall adjusted efficiency according to FPI, but neither team had trouble throttling Virginia by 28 points or more.

Although those were Cavs' road games, Virginia lost to the James Madison Dukes at home. Virginia ranks outside the Top 100 FBS teams in overall efficiency while sporting college football's 117th-ranked defensive efficiency. This is just a bad football team.

NC State dispatched the UConn Huskies (129th of 133 in overall efficiency) by only 10 points on the road, but that Week 1 result wasn’t surprising.  The team worked to find its bearings after quarterback Devin Leary’s transfer to Kentucky. Behind QB Brennan Armstrong and a balanced, multi-headed run game, the Wolfpack rounded into better offensive form since that Aug. 31 affair.

Despite allowing a gaudy 456 yards to Notre Dame, NC State has a Top 50 defensive efficiency as its defense gave up a combined 464 total yards over two matchups. Virginia’s unit ranks 109th in offensive efficiency, more VMI or UConn than it is Notre Dame.

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NC State vs. Virginia best odds

bet365: NC State -9 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
NC State -10NC State -9.5NC State -9.5NC State -9.5NC State -9
-108-108-110-110-110

FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars all offer NC State at -9.5, with FanDuel providing the highest quality odds of the three at -108. However, bet365 actually beats FanDuel by eliminating the hook to -9 with standard -110 odds. The minuscule odds difference (-108 to -110) is a worthwhile price to go from -9.5 to -9.

Play the Wolfpack as a three-star recommendation to -10, but avoid that offering at DraftKings as long as our other best sports betting apps offer more attractive lines.

NC State vs. Virginia odds

NC State vs. Virginia odds analysis

NC State opened as a 9.5-point favorite and remained locked at that number at the majority of our best sports betting sites, while scattered -9 and -10 offerings can be found. Just under 70% of wagers came in on NC State.

The total opened at 45.5 and swiftly moved up a few points to 48.5 across our best sportsbooks. Just under 60% of wagers checked in on the Under.

NC State vs. Virginia game info

  • When: Friday, Sept. 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Virginia
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 66 degrees, 28% chance of precipitation, 11-mph winds

NC State-Virginia prediction made Wednesday, 9/20/23 at 3:22 p.m. ET.

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