Miami vs. Texas A&M Picks, Predictions College Football Week 3: Aggies Try to Bounce Back at Home

Henry John

Last Updated: September 20, 2022 2:19 PM EDT • 4 min 10 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Haynes King of the Texas A&M Aggies looks to pass during the first half against the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kyle Field on September 10, 2022 in College Station, Texas. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images via AFP.

This weekend's marquee college football game sets up as an early season bragging rights opportunity for the ACC and SEC conferences. Two ranked teams collide when Miami visits Texas A&M. Here are our Miami-Texas A&M picks.

The first year of the Mario Cristobal era is off and running as Miami (1-1 against the spread, 1-1 Over/Under) improved to 2-0 with a 30-7 win over Southern Mississippi last week. The Hurricanes have been impressive thus far, but Saturday’s road trip will easily be their toughest test to date.

After being upset and, for all intents and purposes, dominated by Appalachian State, Texas A&M (0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U) has been the butt of many jokes over the past week. With seemingly the entire world doubting them, the Aggies will look to get back on track in this high-stakes matchup on Saturday night.

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 3 matchup between Miami and Texas A&M (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Miami vs. Texas A&M Game Info

Date: Saturday, Sept. 17, 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Weather: 79 degrees, 38% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds SE

Miami vs. Texas A&M Odds Analysis

Going into last week’s game against Appalachian State, Texas A&M was ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll. Widely regarded as one of the top teams in the country, it was no surprise that the Aggies opened as 5-point favorites for their home game against Miami on the lookahead line.

What is likely far more surprising to most people is that the spread has actually increased one point or more in A&M’s favor. Despite the betting percentages at DraftKings Sportsbook showing nearly 60% of all ATS bets siding with Miami, it is the Aggies who are now laying 6 points or more across the market.

Meanwhile, the opening total of 49 has plummeted in the week leading up to this ranked showdown. At the time of writing, the consensus O/U line sits at 44.5.

Based on the latest betting splits for this game, it’s clear that big-money wagers have facilitated the move to the Under as opposed to a ticket majority. At DraftKings, it’s actually the Over that has attracted over 70% of public bets. Despite being the contrarian side, 72% of the handle wagered is on the Under.

Miami vs. Texas A&M Picks

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Miami vs. Texas A&M ATS Pick

Texas A&M -6 (-110) ★★★

While the entire college football world has rushed to scrutinize Jimbo Fisher, quarterback Haynes King, and the entire Texas A&M program, the betting market has actually moved in the Aggies’ favor. That says a lot about which side the smart money is backing in this top-25 showdown. After last week’s embarrassment, bettors should fully expect A&M to show up with a vengeance on Saturday night.

To be fair, Miami could be poised for a special season in the ACC. However, the gap between the ACC and SEC from a betting power rating standpoint remains quite large. As far as the quality of Miami’s opponents, Texas A&M presents by far the toughest defense that the Hurricanes have encountered this season.

This will arguably be the toughest test sophomore QB Tyler Van Dyke has ever faced given that he did not start last year’s season opener against Alabama. Despite the Aggies being young and inexperienced up front, Miami could still find it difficult to run the football. Bettors should expect A&M to make defensive adjustments following the blatant failure to stop the App State ground game last week.

Offensively, for the Aggies, it all comes down to whether King can bounce back. A great way to jumpstart this process would be to get star receiver Ainias Smith involved early and often. Even against a talented Miami defensive front, Devon Achane should be able to have a solid game running the football.

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Miami vs. Texas A&M O/U Pick

Under 44.5 (-107) ★

The total of 44.5 has far less appeal than the opening line of 49. That said, it is still easier to get behind playing the Under than it is to project a high-scoring affair on Saturday night.

Coming into this matchup, neither Miami nor Texas A&M has done enough offensively to earn the trust of bettors. The Hurricanes had only 10 points at halftime of their win over Southern Miss last weekend. Meanwhile, the Aggies’ struggles from a week ago have been well-documented. A&M managed only nine first downs for the game and got completely dominated in the time-of-possession category.

Despite the experience edge favoring the offensive fronts of both teams, each school also possesses plenty of defensive talent. Based on what we’ve seen from Texas A&M thus far, it’s impossible to bank on the offensive line dominating at the point of attack. The same can be said for Miami. Despite the inexperience of the Aggies’ defensive front, the unit’s talent and potential speak for themselves.

From a pace standpoint, neither of these teams figures to be looking to play with a lightning-quick tempo. An inability to trust either offense to overachieve lends itself to preferring the Under, even after the line move that has transpired.

Miami vs. Texas A&M Prop Pick

Texas A&M team total between 21-30 (+190) ★★★★

Much like the point spread for this game, which is essentially telling us that Texas A&M is the right side, the betting market has a great deal of influence on this team total prop, as well. At sportsbooks where the traditional O/U team total lines are posted, the Aggies' total is set at 25.5.

In other words, A&M is expected to land right smack in the middle of this 21-30-point band. This prop’s outlook is heightened by the accompanying +190 price tag at PointsBet. Based on where the O/U team total is set elsewhere in the market, it’s hard to deny the value in these odds.

Where to Bet on Miami vs. Texas A&M Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Miami-Texas A&M picks made 9/15/2022 at 10:27 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.