Louisville vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a touchdown favorite over the Louisville Cardinals at most of our best sports betting sites ahead of their clash on Saturday.
Notre Dame enters ranked No. 16 in the latest AP Poll with Louisville just ahead at No. 15, and the schools will be fighting to climb back up the College football playoff odds.
Was Notre Dame's loss to the Northern Illinois Salukis a fluke? Or will the Fighting Irish be exposed again this week? That’s the question we need to answer when making the best Louisville vs. Notre Dame prediction for Week 5.
The Fighting Irish have outscored their opponents 94-10 since the loss to Northern Illinois. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been on cruise control to start the season. They picked up two easy wins to begin the year, then defeated the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 31-19 last week.
How will they fare in their first road contest?
Best Louisville vs. Notre Dame picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Louisville +7 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Jeremiyah Love Under 70.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Louisville vs. Notre Dame against the spread prediction: Week 5
Louisville to cover the spread: +7 (-110) ⭐⭐
Louisville vs. Notre Dame opening odds:
- Louisville: +9.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Notre Dame: -9.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Finding out what’s real and what’s fake
The Fighting Irish haven’t been messing around since their home loss to Northern Illinois. They’ve rushed for at least 270 yards in each of their last two contests, including 362 against the Purdue Boilermakers two weeks ago.
While the Irish's rushing attack is scary, the Cardinals are allowing just 114.0 rushing yards per game. Granted, the Cardinals are untested, but the Fighting Irish have been playing weak opponents as well.
Without much to determine if either of these teams is really that good, I’m going to back the somewhat more tested school to cover as a touchdown underdog. The Irish's run game will be proven a bit fraudulent this week.
Finding the best spread
There's been a lot of movement since this line opened, with the Fighting Irish beginning as the 9.5-point favorite. The spread has dropped all the way to 6.5 at FanDuel, with the price at -118 for the Irish to cover.
The odds of -104 for the Cardinals to cover 6.5 points is tempting. However, it’s safer to just play this at a full touchdown for -110. This gives you the opportunity to push if the Fighting Irish's rushing attack has its way with the Cardinals’ defense.
Mike Spector also likes Louisville's chances to win outright as part of his Week 5 college football upset picks.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Louisville vs. Notre Dame prop pick for Week 5
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Jeremiyah Love Under 70.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Jeremiyah Love is tied with quarterback Riley Leonard for the most carries on Notre Dame. Both players have run the ball 46 times this season, with Love racking up 339 yards. He’s averaging a whopping 7.4 yards per carry.
Despite all of that, this number is set at just 70.5 this week. Love has rushed for over 70 yards in three of his four games, and he ran for 109 on just 10 carries against the Boilermakers. At a glance, this seems like a fishy line from oddsmakers at our best sportsbooks.
Then when you look closer, it’s clear why this line is so low.
Love simply doesn’t get that many carries. He’s tallied at least 10 in every game, but the tailback has yet to hit 15 in a contest this season. The Cardinals are only allowing 3.3 yards per attempt.
Notre Dame boasts the best rushing attack Louisville has faced this season, but the Cardinals still possess the ability to hold Love to fewer than five yards per carry as part of your college football predictions for Week 5.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Louisville vs. Notre Dame odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
- How to watch: Peacock
- Weather: 75 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, 11-mph wind
- Favorite: Notre Dame (-245 via FanDuel)
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