Fresno State vs. UNLV Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Bulldogs Aim for 5th Consecutive Win
Among the three college football games on tap for Friday night is a Mountain West showdown between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the UNLV Rebels. Read on for our top Fresno State-UNLV picks for Week 11.
With senior quarterback Jake Haener now back from injury, all is once again right in the world for Fresno State (3-6 ATS, 5-4 O/U). The Bulldogs have bounced back from a four-game losing skid to win four straight. Fresno is in full control of its destiny with respect to making the MWC Championship Game.
On the flip side, UNLV (6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U) enters this contest on a four-game losing streak. The Rebels got starting QB Doug Brumfield back from an injury of his own last week, but it still wasn’t enough to knock off San Diego State.
Here are our college football picks for the Week 11 matchup between Fresno State and UNLV (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 11, as well as our top upset picks and parlay!
Fresno State vs. UNLV Game Info
Date: Friday, Nov. 11, 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Weather: 48 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 1-3 mph winds N
Fresno State vs. UNLV Odds
Fresno State vs. UNLV Odds Analysis
Fresno State has grown from an 8.5-point favorite on the opening line to a 9.5-point consensus favorite as of Friday morning. The Bulldogs have drawn just 50% of the tickets but have some financially backing with 74% of the handle.
The Over/Under has also moved upward. Bettors are aligned on the Over with 62% of the tickets and 63% of the handle, heling bump the consensus line from 57 to 61.
Fresno State vs. UNLV Picks
Fresno State vs. UNLV ATS Pick
UNLV +9.5 (-110) ★★
With Haener back in the fold, Fresno State may seem like an obvious play to some. But bettors shouldn’t discount UNLV as a home underdog in this spot.
While Haener’s return has helped jumpstart what was a struggling offense in his absence, there are still concerns to be had with Fresno State’s defense. Sure, the Bulldogs have held two of their last three opponents to 13 points or fewer. That said, shutting down the likes of New Mexico and Hawaii doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for the long haul.
As far as UNLV’s offense is concerned, the return of Brumfield at quarterback can't be overstated. The Rebels only managed to score 10 points in his first game back last week, but that matchup came on the road against a very stout San Diego State defense.
Also back in action for UNLV last week after missing time with a knee injury was lead running back Aidan Robbins. He wasted little time in making his presence felt, totaling 115 rushing yards. Plenty more could be in store this week as Fresno comes in allowing 168.9 rushing yards per game to opponents.
Now that Brumfield has had a game to work out the kinks, look for the Rebels’ offense to be able to keep pace with Haener and the Bulldogs at home.
Fresno State vs. UNLV O/U Pick
Over 60.5 (-110) ★★★★
Now that both teams have their starting quarterbacks back from injury, one has to give the offenses the upper hand in this matchup.
On the season, Fresno State ranks 63rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, that ranking does carry a bit of an asterisk due to Haener’s multi-game absence. It’s clear that the Bulldogs are a completely different team offensively with their senior leader under center.
For that matter, the same can be said for UNLV’s offense with Brumfield as opposed to without. Although he had to win the starting job during camp, no one can deny that the offense looked lost without him.
The Rebels actually outgained San Diego State last week but were done in by a -3 turnover margin. Brumfield certainly won’t be able to afford to throw a pair of interceptions on Friday as the Fresno State offense is more than capable of taking advantage.
From a statistical standpoint, both defenses have been especially vulnerable against the run this season. As such, bettors should expect a heavy dose of both Jordan Mims and Robbins for their respective teams. If the defenses are forced to stack the box to keep from getting gashed on the ground, this will only help open things up down the field.
Fresno State vs. UNLV Prop Pick
Fresno State Team Over 34.5 points (-110) ★★★★
In the four games that Haener has both started and finished this season, Fresno State has scored at least 32 points. This stat alone is enough to argue for betting the Over on the Bulldogs’ team total prop of 34.5.
It’s also worth noting that UNLV’s defense really lived off of generating turnovers early in the season. Takeaways could prove difficult to come by for the Rebels on Friday night. Aside from the two interceptions in his return to action two weeks ago, Haener has only thrown one pick across all other appearances this season.
Where to Bet on Fresno State vs. UNLV
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Fresno State vs. UNLV picks made 11/9/2022 at 4:05 p.m. ET
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