College Football Week 6 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Weekend

It is the second Saturday of five in October for college football as we look ahead. Last week saw the Top 10 throttled with four losses, though only one team was upset. Let’s look at the college odds for this week.

Last week, the cream rose to the top as the who’s of Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State completely destroyed the competition. There were still upsets like Oregon, Florida, and LSU and we expect more changes this upcoming week.

In looking over the betting lines at the different sports betting sites, our eyes and minds are drawn to a pair of home underdogs and a 5-0 pooch that should have some bite.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Syracuse Orange

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at Carrier Dome

Wake Forest is 5-0 and looks the part. The Demon Deacons run a clever run/pass offense that adjusts to what is working against a particular opponent. If the run game is clicking, coach Dave Clawson will keep pounding the rock, but if there are throws short or long, he trusts quarterback Sam Hartman to make completions.

Syracuse is a much-improved squad from a year ago when they were 1-10. The Orange has turned into more of a running team thanks to dual-threat QB Garrett Shrader, who has shown the ability to make big plays out of nothing with his legs.

https://youtu.be/6e7j4h12rE4

We start entering the time of the year where the unbeaten can be knocked off, especially on the road. The Syracuse defense has not faced any top throwing QB’s, nevertheless, they have still held opposing teams to just 167 passing per game. (14th nationally).

The Pick

The ‘Cuse is 4-1 ATS this season and playing everyone tough and is 11-3 ATS vs. teams outscoring their opponents by 10+ PPG. A three-point outcome either way.

NCAAF Picks: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

UTSA Roadrunners vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 07:00 PM EDT at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Though it is too early to say for sure, given how the season has started for these Conference USA combatants, this could be the first of two meetings this season. UTSA is 5-0 and has outright upsets at Illinois and Memphis. Western Kentucky is 1-3 but took then-undefeated Army to the wire, lost by two versus Indiana and they should have covered at Michigan State.

The Hilltoppers have the top passing offense in FBS by over 40 yards (441 YPG) and they average 39 PPG. The Roadrunners are far more balanced and are 44th in total offense, at 34 PPG.

Western Kentucky has played the tougher slate, but because they throw so often, the defense is on the field more than 35 minutes a contest. UTSA thrives on controlling the tempo at over 32 minutes of possession. UTSA also has a quick edge on defense. The Hilltoppers are 0-6 ATS in recent October matchups and again are 0-6 ATS against foes that complete 58% or better of pass attempts.

NCAAF Pick:

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will look to upset their state neighbors in Week 6. Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 07:00 PM EDT at Jones AT&T Stadium

We understand that TCU was a Top 25 team coming into the season. However, in the Horned Frogs' last three outings they are 0-3 ATS, beating a mediocre Cal club by two, got trucked by SMU, and played from behind most of the day to Texas, before losing all at home.

This is TCU’s first away game of the season and they are short favorites at a 4-1 Texas Tech squad that has upset Houston and West Virginia and is 6-1 ATS at Lubbock against the Frogs.

https://twitter.com/TexasTechFB/status/1445749199023185920?s=20

The series favorite is only 3-6 ATS since 2012 and though the Red Raiders are not a prolific running offense at 146 YPG, they do average 4.7 yards a carry. It is alarming to see a Gary Patterson-coached team get run over on the ground and TCU is permitting over 200 YPG at 5.1 yards a clip.

The Pick

With the Frogs 1-8 ATS facing a conference foe with 60% or better win percentage playing with revenge, Double T takes this Big 12 battle and is our choice for this week's college football picks.

NCAAF Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.