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Nathan MacKinnon drives forward against Thomas Harley during the second period in Game 3 as we dive into the best bets and predictions for the Game 4 clash between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche.
Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche drives forward against Thomas Harley during the second period in Game 3 on May 11, 2024. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP via AFP

The Colorado Avalanche host the Dallas Stars for Monday's Game 3, which begins at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Here are our expert Stars vs. Avalanche predictions and prop bets based on the best NHL odds.

The Dallas Stars (52-21-9) reminded everyone why they were the NHL's best road team in the regular season with a 4-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche (50-25-7) to take a 2-1 series lead. Those two meet again at Ball Arena in Denver for Game 4, which begins tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

With the best home record during the regular season, the Avalanche are favored to beat the Stars in Game 4 across Betway and our best sports betting sites. According to the Stanley Cup odds, the Stars have the third-shortest odds at most of our best sports betting apps, while the Avalanche are cemented in fifth. 

Accompanying our best Hurricanes vs. Rangers predictions, here are our best Stars vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Stars vs. Avalanche Game 4 expert picks

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Stars vs. Avalanche predictions for Monday

Avalanche moneyline ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Stars-Avs series has all the makings of a seven-game classic. The Stars showed why they are the NHL's best road team in Game 3, shutting down the Avalanche in Colorado for their third win in four attempts in enemy environments. While a grueling and punishing road lies ahead in Game 4, the Avs should prove why they're just as good at home as the Stars are on the road.  

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The Avalanche had the best home record in the regular season and won both encounters at Ball Arena against the Winnipeg Jets in the first round. While the Stars are inarguably superior to the Jets, Colorado should dig deep and emit the desperation required to level the series at two games, heading back to Dallas for Game 5. Betway offers odds of -135. A $10 bet will pay a profit of $7.41 if it hits and has an implied probability of 57.45%.  

Best odds: -135 via Betway

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Tyler Seguin Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐

Tyler Seguin seemingly dials back the years when he plays the Avalanche. The 32-year-old has fired at least three shots on goal in six straight against the Avs this season, including all three playoff encounters. He has at least three shots in nine of 10 postseason encounters, including eight in a row. 

Seguin also provides the Stars' most dangerous goal threat against Colorado, scoring nine in his last six games against Jared Bednar and Co. He has three goals in the series, including two in the Game 3 victory. This bet would ordinarily be a four-star proposition. However, the Avs should dominate territorially in Game 4, which could prevent Seguin from getting the looks he usually does. Betway offers -120 odds. The odds imply a probability of 54.55%, and a $10 winning bet pays a profit of $8.33. 

Best odds: -120 via Betway

Avalanche Over 32.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jake Oettinger could prove to be the difference maker in this series. The sensational Stars goaltender was at his best in Game 3, turning aside 28 of 29 shots. Oettinger also made 28 saves in the Game 2 victory. The Avs had 29 shots in Game 3 and 32 in Game 2, but must be more aggressive in Game 4 and should enter the contest with a shoot-first mentality. 

The Avalanche were on pace for 33 shots in Game 3 before flailing in the third period, amassing just seven shots after securing 22 in the opening 40 minutes. Expect the Avs to get into the mid-30s on Monday for the first time this series. Betway offers -135 odds, paying a profit of $7.41 if the wager hits. The -135 odds have an implied probability of 57.45%. 

Best odds: -135 via Betway

Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At least in the goals department, Nathan MacKinnon has endured a substandard postseason by his lofty standards. The frontrunner to win the 2023-24 Hart Trophy has just three goals in eight playoff games. Overdue for a breakout performance, MacKinnon's only goal of the series came in the third period of Game 1.  

While the Stars are too good defensively to expect MacKinnon to score at will, the Avs' superstar needs to reconcile any differences he may have with his alternate ego. He showed signs of bursting into beast mode early in Game 3 but flatlined after the opening 20 minutes. That can't happen again if the Avs are to level the series. Betway offers odds of -112, providing an $8.93 profit if the wager hits. The odds imply a winning probability of 52.83%. 

Best odds: -112 via Betway

Stars vs. Avalanche Game 4 info & odds

  • When: Monday, May 13
  • Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Ball Arena, Denver
  • How to watch: ESPN, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Avalanche (-135 via Betway)

Stars-Avalanche predictions made Monday at 11 a.m. ET.

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