College Football Upset Picks Week 1: 3 Underdogs to Win Outright

There are only 43 FBS vs. FBS games in Week 1, with just 21 of them featuring spreads within one score. As you look for college football upset picks and underdogs, be prudent. There is no need to burn your bankroll now searching for such drama.

But even after Week 0’s short slate doomed my college football predictions to 0-2, there are a few upsets to target in Week 1.

🏈 College football upset picks: Week 1

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 1 based on the latest college football odds before placing your bets.

Total wagered: 1.23 units | Max profit: 3 units

🚨 Best college football underdogs to bet: Week 1

Lafayette moneyline (+810 via FanDuel)

This is bold. This is not what most people expect, given Lafayette is an FCS program. And this would certainly be an ugly start for head coach Jason Candle with the UConn Huskies.

But doubting Candle is why this pick holds value. In his last seven seasons at MAC-powerhouse Toledo, the Rockets lost outright four times as favorites of at least two touchdowns, lowlighted by a 20-7 loss at Bowling Green in 2019 with Toledo favored by 24.5 points.

Suddenly this 19.5-point edge (-108 via DraftKings) looks manageable for the Leopards, doesn’t it?

Candle brought a significant chunk of the Toledo roster with him to UConn, but it is still a less-talented team than he is used to. That smaller margin for error will cost Candle at some point, even if not in this debut.

Miami (OH) moneyline (+575 via BetMGM)

Again, this is bold, though slightly less bold than taking Lafayette.

This logic, however, is very simple: Pitt and Miami play the same style, one dependent on physicality and stout defense to compensate for middling offense, with “middling” sometimes an at-best description.

On paper, the Panthers are more talented, but with an offense as putrid as theirs may be, the margin for error shrinks, and the RedHawks have a proven offensive line that should both raise their floor and stymie some of Pitt’s trademark defensive front.

This game currently has a total of 48.5 and is vaguely trending toward 48. Both Pat Narduzzi and Chuck Martin will be content to drag it into the teens. At that point, variance alone suggests value in Miami.

Cal moneyline (+106 via Caesars)

The Cal Golden Bears are nominal underdogs, but underdogs nonetheless. It is vaguely surprising, given their edge at quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and homefield advantage. Do not be surprised if this line flips by kickoff to then make the UCLA Bruins the short underdogs.

This is entirely a bet on JKS starting well at home in his sophomore season. Cal could be a sneaky chaos agent this season if he shows development from his promising debut year.