College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 1 Predictions

Much of Week 1 features spreads far too large to include among any college football ATS picks comfortably. Spreads north of five touchdowns come down to wondering how long the Power 4 team will keep its foot on the gas pedal when it clearly does not need to. No one can genuinely anticipate that.

But when you look at the talent edges No. 7 Miami has against Stanford, No. 8 Texas A&M has against Missouri State and No. 4 Notre Dame has against Wisconsin, you can justifiably trust the talent edges not only of their starters but also of their reserves this weekend.

These thoughts went 2-2 last week for -0.2 units.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 1 ATS predictions

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 1 based on the latest college football odds.

💰 My best ATS picks for Week 1

Eastern Michigan -3 (-107 via Caesars)

Some trusted projections favor the San Jose State Spartans by three points on the road against the Eastern Michigan Eagles. But that logic overlooks two truths.

First, Eastern Michigan returns 62% of its production from last season, led by quarterback Noah Kim. That is far and away the highest number in the MAC and significantly more than a San Jose State roster that did not return a single defensive starter from last season.

Secondly, the Spartans lost to USC far worse than that 42-26 score suggested. San Jose State trailed 35-3. That is a truer indication of that game.

The Eagles saw plenty on film of how to exploit the Spartans, and homefield advantage should only further that edge.

Miami 1st half -13.5 (-122 via DraftKings)

Perhaps Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal will add some drama to our Friday nights. He might not even know what time the game kicks off (9 p.m. ET on ESPN), given his penchant for misreading clocks.

But those worries should not matter early, especially not against the Stanford Cardinal.

If Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, formerly of Duke and Tulane before that, can find star receiver Malachi Toney twice in the first half, those two plays alone may be enough for the Hurricanes to cover this spread. Their talent edge is so distinct that not even Cristobal should be able to botch it.

Texas A&M -40.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

As much as some might put stock in the Texas A&M Aggies, this is more truly doubt in the Missouri State Bears. They transitioned up to the FBS last year and managed a decent 7-5 regular-season record including a 5-1 opening in Conference USA play.

But then head coach Ryan Beard left to take over at Coastal Carolina, and the Bears’ roster went through too much turnover inherent to that coaching change.

That roster movement is difficult enough for any program, but to manage it just a year after being in the FCS? That is too much to ask.

Missouri State cannot keep up with Texas A&M’s backups or even its backups' backups, so this massive number should be handled by the reserves without much worry.

Notre Dame -20.5 (-110 via Caesars)

Good luck to the Wisconsin Badgers. They absolutely must wish this game had been played when originally scheduled, in 2020.

Back then, logic would have made the Badgers about one-point favorites against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on a neutral field. Nowadays … three touchdowns feels too short in the Irish favor.

Particularly when recognizing this is the first stop on Notre Dame’s mission to “leave no doubt” after December’s exclusion from the College Football Playoff.

The Irish defense returns a linebacker corps that should shut down the Badgers’ supposed renewed focus on running the ball, and the chip on Notre Dame’s shoulder should keep this game from tightening in garbage time.