Boise State vs. San Diego State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Will Broncos Live Up to Hype?
As Boise State meets San Diego State on Friday night, our top predictions look to get the best of college football odds for this Friday night contest.
The Boise State Broncos and San Diego State Aztecs were predicted to finish first and fourth, respectively, in the Mountain West preseason poll.
However, Boise State kicked off the season with two nonconference losses against Washington and UCF. It did manage to bounce back with a 42-18 win over North Dakota last week, though.
San Diego State opened with wins over Ohio and Idaho State but then lost against Pac-12 opponents UCLA and Oregon State.
This all combines to set up an enticing matchup as part of our college football best bets for Friday.
Here is our best Boise State vs. San Diego State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Boise State vs. San Diego State prediction: Week 4
Boise State -6.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
These two teams have split their eight head-to-head meetings, but the games have not been as close recently as one would think, as the winning team has won four of the last five matchups by nine-plus points.
Boise State comes into this matchup somewhat undervalued at 1-2, as its outlook would look much better if it held on to beat UCF in its second game. However, the Broncos were already without preseason First Team All-Conference running back George Holani and then lost starting quarterback Taylen Green to an ankle injury in the fourth quarter. Green returned against North Dakota and threw for 188 yards, adding 35 yards and a touchdown on the ground. If Holani returns, he bolsters a running back group that has run for five touchdowns and 4.3 yards per carry, mostly in his absence.
The San Diego State defense enters this week ranked 67th in Havoc and was outclassed by UCLA’s elite athletes, allowing 360 yards and 28 points in the first 30 minutes of that game. Boise State’s ground-and-pound style is built to exploit San Diego State’s biggest defensive weakness, as the Aztecs rank dead-last in the country in Rushing Success Rate. Thus, not much will likely be needed of Green when facing a defense that ranks in the top 60 (57th) in Defensive Passing Explosiveness.
If Boise State controls the tempo and gets up early, that could spell doom for San Diego State, whose offense under quarterback Jalen Mayden has not been impressive. Mayden is a converted defensive back who has 60.3% of his passes and has thrown more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three).
The Aztecs have been more of a plodding and methodical offense, entering last week against Oregon State ranking in the top 60 in Rush Success and Line Yards, but 110th or worse in Havoc and Quality Drives. This is a three-star play, as Boise State is 10-6-1 ATS against conference opponents since 2021, while the Aztecs have covered just seven of their 18 home games in that span.
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Boise State vs. San Diego State best odds
Caesars (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | -7 | -7 | -6.5 | -7 |
| -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Boise State backers have an easy choice in which sportsbook to head to, as Caesars is the only shop offering a spread under the key number of -7. Despite DraftKings charging slightly less juice to lay the touchdown spread, bettors would pay -123 in juice to back the alternate spread of -6.5, which makes the -110 found at Caesars for the same number much more enticing.
Boise State vs. San Diego State odds
Boise State vs. San Diego State odds analysis
There has been plenty of movement in favor of the Aztecs, specifically at FanDuel, which had an opening number of -8.5 on Sunday afternoon. BetMGM opened at -7.5 before moving to -7, while DraftKings opened at -7 and briefly dipped to -6.5 on Monday morning before being bet back up to -7.
In most cases, the line movement down from -7.5 and -8.5 is not necessarily reflected in the betting splits, as the early wagers are 59/41 in favor of the Broncos.
Caesars is the only sportsbook offering a total of 45, as all competing sportsbooks are at 45.5. DraftKings is juiced slightly to the Under at -112 odds, while all other shops charge the standard price of -110. FanDuel has seen the most variability in its total, jumping from an opening of 43.5 on Sunday afternoon to a high of 46.5 before settling in at 45.5.
Caesars had slightly less movement in comparison, going from 45.5 to 46, before Under backers drove the total down a full point. Sharps are likely playing the Under, as the betting splits are 62/38 in favor of the Over.
Boise State vs. San Diego State game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 22 at 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 71 degrees, 12% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph NW
Boise State-San Diego State prediction made 9/19/2023 at 6:08 a.m. ET.
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