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College Football Betting Trends to Know for Week 4: Can Fighting Irish Remain Road Warriors?

Henry John

Last Updated: September 22, 2022 1:07 PM EDT • 5 min 32 sec read.

Houston Griffith of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish celebrates against the Marshall Thundering Herd.
Houston Griffith of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish celebrates against the Marshall Thundering Herd. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

Is Notre Dame’s offense primed for a breakout on the road at North Carolina? Is it worth laying double-digits with Tennessee at home against Florida? Our featured betting trends for Week 4 provide historical angles on these games and more!

Week 4 of the college football season is upon us. As more teams jump into conference play, there will undoubtedly be an uptick in significant and enduring college football betting trends. This simply comes with the territory of facing a familiar opponent and the increased amount of history between respective schools.

This Saturday’s college football betting slate offers an eclectic mix of both conference and non-league games. As always, we warn bettors about the dangers of placing bets solely based on historical trends and data. That said, some of the trends that are specific to Week 4 matchups can help jump-start a more thorough handicap. 

Here are our top five college football betting trends to know for Week 4 (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Top College Football Betting Trends for Week 4

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

Since 2000, Notre Dame is 18-8 against the spread on the road when facing teams averaging 36 points or more.

Through three games this season, Notre Dame ranks 105th in the country in scoring offense. The Fighting Irish have averaged only 18.3 points per game and were quite fortunate to finally break through with their first win a week ago against California. 

Of course, losing starting quarterback Tyler Buchner to injury hasn’t helped matters. Backup Drew Pyne was efficient last week, but Notre Dame’s lack of any downfield receiving threats has really hindered the ability of the offense so far. 

Week 4 will feature the Fighting Irish traveling south to Chapel Hill for a matchup with North Carolina. Given how potent the Tar Heels’ offense has been through three games, it's safe to say Notre Dame will need to score a fair bit if it hopes to pick up a road win. 

The Irish have performed quite well in similar spots on the road against high-scoring opponents. Notre Dame’s 18-8 record ATS since 2000 in road games against teams averaging 36 or more points per game equates to a cover percentage of 69%.

Against the Tar Heels specifically, Notre Dame is also on a 3-0 run both straight up and ATS. However, unlike the last three meetings, North Carolina is a slight favorite ahead of Saturday's matchup. UNC’s defense is awful again this season, but it’s tough to say whether the 2022 version of the Irish offense can even score more than 30 points.

South Florida vs. Louisville

Road teams are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between South Florida and Louisville.

Following the collapse of the old Big East Conference, South Florida and Louisville haven't faced each another since 2013. That was the first year of the American Athletic Conference’s existence, and Louisville’s only season in the league before joining the ACC in 2014.

The Cardinals own a three-game winning streak in the series heading into this Week 4 matchup. However, the visiting side has covered the spread in each of the last five meetings, regardless of which team has been favored.

USF was able to hang around last week on the road against Florida, so the Bulls are capable of doing the same against Louisville. The final margin was only two points when the teams last played on the Cardinals' home field in 2012.

Louisville put forth its best defensive effort in Week 3 against the run so far in 2022. But Florida State still recorded 189 rushing yards, which gives bettors a pretty good idea of how poor the Cardinals’ run defense has been. Through three games, opponents are averaging 201.3 rushing yards against them. That ranks just 98th in the FBS.

South Florida ranks 24th in rushing offense while averaging 210.5 yards per contest, making matters worse for Louisville. USF piled up 286 yards and three scores on the ground against the Gators.

There's clearly a path for the Bulls to continue the success road teams have experienced in this series, and do it as a 14.5-point underdog.

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Florida vs. Tennessee

Home teams are a perfect 3-0 ATS during the last three Florida-Tennessee meetings.

Saturday afternoon’s Florida-Tennessee clash could determine which team finishes second to Georgia in the SEC East Division in 2022. Despite both teams being ranked in the AP Poll, the college football betting market is pegging the Volunteers as a decisive home favorite.

How decisive is decisive? Well, Tennesse is currently a 10.5-point favorite through DraftKings Sportsbook. The two schools have played 51 games previously, and this marks the first time the Vols have been a double-digit favorite over Florida, according to Chris Fallica of ESPN.

The Gators have won 16 of the last 17 meetings between the schools dating back to 2005, making the double-digit spread even more confusing. Could that domination be part of the reason why nearly 60% of all bets against the spread are on the underdog?

There’s no denying Tennessee football has been down in recent years. However, the Vols still managed to cover as a hefty home underdog the last time these teams met in Knoxville. As such, home teams are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.

Florida hasn't looked impressive since upsetting Utah in Week 1. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has yet to throw a touchdown pass through three games. He'll need to do that on Saturday if the Gators hope to keep things competitive against the potent Tennessee offense.

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State

The Under is 8-2 during Wisconsin's last 10 road games against teams ranked in the AP Top-10.

This probably isn’t the first college football betting trend readers have digested with a connection between Wisconsin and the Under. The Under has hit the last 10 times the Badgers have gone on the road to play a team ranked in the AP Top 10. The total is currently set at 57 for Saturday night’s game against third-ranked Ohio State.

While that trend itself is fine and good, it's worth digging a bit deeper to find out how many of the outcomes have occurred recently. Wisconsin actually hasn't been in this scenario since a 28-7 loss at Iowa in 2020. 

The Badgers have only played on the road against an AP Top-10 opponent three times over the last five years. Interestingly enough, one of those matchups did come against third-ranked Ohio State back in 2019, a game that featured only 45 total points.

It's clear the Buckeyes are expected to do the majority of the scoring on Saturday as 19-point favorites. Wisconsin’s defense will need to slow down C.J. Stroud and Ohio State's bevy of weapons.

As for the Badgers’ offense, moving the ball hasn't been an issue. Rather, turnovers plagued Wisconsin during a shocking home loss to Washington State two weeks ago. Can the Badgers stay out of their own way against an experienced and improved Buckeyes defense?

Wyoming vs. BYU

The Under is 11-4 in Wyoming’s last 15 games when on an active three-plus game winning streak.

For many college football betting analysts (myself included), Wyoming was a team to fade coming into the season. After Illinois blasted the school, the Cowboys seem to have adjusted while playing at home over the last three weeks. Following a rather stunning upset of Air Force, the Cowboys are now 3-1 and on a winning streak ahead of Saturday’s trip to BYU.

Head coach Craig Bohl has always been able to coach up his defense throughout a nine-year tenure in Laramie. Despite only four starters being back on that side of the ball in 2022, somehow you just knew Wyoming would figure things out. 

The Pokes showcased their defensive improvement last week when they held an Air Force team that leads all of the FBS with 325 rushing yards per game to just 171 yards on the ground and 14 points. 

Of course, the BYU offense that Wyoming will face in Week 4 boasts more versatility. In addition to Jaren Hall and the Cougars’ passing attack, the Cowboys will also need to deal with a physical O-line and a running back in Christopher Brooks who's still searching for a breakout performance to jump-start his season.

Despite a much tougher opponent, history suggests Wyoming’s defense tends to stay hot once it warms up. The Under has hit 11 times over the last 15 occasions the Pokes have carried a three-plus game winning streak into a matchup. Throw in the suspect nature of Wyoming’s offense, and Saturday’s total of 50 points could be difficult to reach.

Where to Bet on College Football

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.