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Power Echols (L) #23 of the North Carolina Tar Heels tackles Joey Aguilar #4 of the Appalachian State Mountaineers as we make our Appalachian State vs. Troy Sun Belt Championship predictions and picks.
Power Echols (L) #23 of the North Carolina Tar Heels tackles Joey Aguilar #4 of the Appalachian State Mountaineers during the game at Kenan Memorial Stadium on September 09, 2023 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The Tar Heels won 40-34 in double overtime. Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images via AFP.

Appalachian State battles Troy in Saturday's Sun Belt Championship, and we see Mountaineers QB Joey Aguilar keeping things going through the air, as we make our Appalachian State vs. Troy prediction based on the best college football odds at our best college football betting sites.

QB Joey Aguilar has spearheaded an explosive offense this season for Appalachian State (8-4), recording multiple touchdown passes in 11 of his team’s 12 games.  

Can he maintain this pace against a stiflling defense for Troy (10-2) in a hostile road environment at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Saturday's Sun Belt Championship?

To complement our college football player props and best bets, here is our best Appalachian State vs. Troy prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Appalachian State vs. Troy prediction: Sun Belt Championship

Joey Aguilar Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Aguilar has led a Mountaineer passing attack that ranks 22nd in the nation in yards per game (278.7) entering Saturday's Sun Belt title game. Yet Troy’s defense has been moderately stingy through the air, allowing just a hair under 200 passing yards per game to rank in the top 30 nationally.

The Trojans haven’t been particularly generous when it comes to opposing passing touchdowns, either. Only four teams have managed multiple scores through the air against Troy’s defense, although two of those occasions have come within the past three weeks.

While this area has been a strong suit of the Trojans defensively, there’s certainly an opening for Aguilar to find a couple of touchdown tosses considering the scoring expectations for this matchup. The total has crept up to 52.5 across our best sportsbooks, putting App State’s team total at 23.5 points.

That number at our best college football betting sites suggests that at least a couple of touchdowns are plausible and likely for the Mountaineers. App State has 19 rushing TDs on the year compared to 34 passing scores, meaning it’s far more likely for Aguilar to lead the way with his arm than for the Mountaineer running backs to handle the scoring.

Aguilar has cleared this line in eight straight and in 11 of 12 games this season, and we like his chances to do again Saturday. 

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Appalachian State vs. Troy best odds

FanDuel: Joey Aguilar Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-122)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 1.5 TDsOver 1.5 TDsN/AOver 1.5 TDsOver 1.5 TDs
-150-122N/A-142-145

It’s important to scour for value on this prop due to the wide variation in the odds across our best sports betting apps. At DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365, the Aguilar passing touchdowns prop isn’t nearly as attractive of a wager due to odds of -142 or higher in those spots.

The discount to -122 at FanDuel is notable, though. We’re happy to play this prop to -133 odds, which FanDuel clears by a considerable margin.

Appalachian State vs. Troy odds

Appalachian State vs. Troy odds analysis

With the game being played at home, Troy opened as a 7-point favorite but has seen that number dip to between -5.5 and -6 across our best sports betting sites, even as 50% of wagers have come in on the Trojans.

The total opened at 51.5 and has been bet up to 52.5 across our best sportsbooks, as bettors don’t seem overly concerned about the projected rainy conditions.  

Appalachian State vs. Troy game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 4 p.m. ET
  • Where: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 72 degrees, 13 mph wind, 88% precipitation

Appalachian State-Troy prediction made Thursday at 4:45 p.m. ET.

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