Top 5 QB Sleepers: A Fresh Start for Trevor Lawrence

Passing yardage continues to climb in the NFL so that can make it relatively easy to find a productive quarterback. Still, there is value to be found if you can hit on quarterbacks that are not necessarily expected to be among the Top 10 passers going into the season.

Over the past decade, there have typically been 10-12 quarterbacks per season throwing for 4,000 yards. There are a few exceptions, and sometimes a quarterback does not have to throw for 4,000 yards to deliver value. More mobile quarterbacks, like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, or Jalen Hurts, can still offer QB1 value without hitting that passing threshold.

The same would go for Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, but they are both likely to exceed 4,000 passing yards if they are healthy.

When it comes to standard fantasy leagues, there are so many good quarterbacks that getting one is easy – but in Superflex leagues, in which a second quarterback becomes a viable weekly option, a value QB can be a significant asset.

Here are a handful of sleeper quarterbacks that might deliver surprising value in 2022.

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Quarterback Sleepers

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

Enormously hyped as the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Lawrence stumbled through his rookie season, throwing a league-leading 17 interceptions and just 12 touchdowns, completing 59.6 percent of his passes for 3,641 yards.

But what if the Jaguars' mess of a 2021 season was largely because of head coach Urban Meyer? Could a new coach, like Doug Pederson, get Lawrence on track?

The Jaguars have a running game, with James Robinson and Travis Etienne, and a receiving corps that includes Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, and tight end Evan Engram – not superstars, but players that have been able to produce in the NFL.

If Lawrence is ready to take a step forward in his second season, it is not difficult to imagine him throwing for more than 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns.

To Lead the League in Passing Yards: +4500 at FanDuel, +3000 at Caesars, DraftKings

Offensive Player of the Year: +10000 at DraftKings, +7500 at FanDuel

Davis Mills, Houston

Expectations are low for this year's edition of the Texans, who have the consensus longest odds to win the Super Bowl.

At the same time, second-year quarterback Davis Mills could be a sneaky productive option. He might be viewed as a default quarterback for the Texans after their relationship with Deshaun Watson collapsed in a hurry, but Mills showed some promise as a rookie. He appeared in 13 games, starting 11, and completed 66.8 percent of his passes for 2,664 yards, with 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

If Mills plays a full season and has some natural improvement as he moves into his second year in the league, a 4,000-yard season is not impossible. The Texans are going to be losing most weeks and that will mean ample opportunity for Mills to throw the ball.

To Lead the League in Passing Yards Odds: +10000 at Caesars, +6000 at DraftKings, +5500 at FanDuel

Offensive Player of the Year Odds: +15000 at DraftKings +20000 at FanDuel

Drew Lock, Seattle

Acquired as part of the Russell Wilson trade, Lock had started 21 games for the Broncos across the past three seasons, completing 59.4% of his passes with 25 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.

He is battling veteran Geno Smith for the starting quarterback job in Seattle, and he'll obviously need to win if he's going to be a productive starting quarterback.

Whoever wins the job does have potential tied to Seattle having two premier wide receivers. The chance to throw passes to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who both had more than 1,000 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns last season, offers a scenario in which Lock (or Smith) might provide surprising numbers.

To Lead the League in Passing Yards Odds: +20000 at Caesars, +10000 at DraftKings

Jameis Winston, New Orleans

Before blowing out his knee in Week 8 last season, Winston had shown much better decision making, especially when compared to the 2019 season when he led the league with 30 interceptions while playing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In seven games for the Saints in 2021, Winston threw for a modest 1,170 yards but had 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

A healthy Winston is probably going to inclined to throw the ball – and if he isn’t going to give it away, then there just might be some good things to come out of it. After all, in the season that he threw 30 picks, Winston also passed for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns.

To Lead the League in Passing Yards Odds: +3200 at FanDuel ,+3000 at Caesars and DraftKings

Offensive Player of the Year Odds: +10000 at FanDuel, +8000 at DraftKings

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta

The second overall pick by Tennessee in 2015 has not lived up to expectations; he last started in 2019 when he was with the Titans.

However, he is also the likely starting quarterback for a Falcons team that is not likely to be any good this season, so there will be ample reason for Mariota to throw the ball, plus he can run the ball, offering additional value there.

This is not some blanket recommendation that Marcus Mariota is going to have an amazing season. It’s more that he might exceed what are going to be relatively low expectations.

To Lead the League in Passing Yards Odds: +20000 at FanDuel, +15000 at Caesars, +13000 at DraftKings

Offensive Player of the Year Odds: +10000 at DraftKings

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