Top 20 No. 1 Overall Picks in MLB History

While the best players in Major League Baseball converge on Los Angeles for next week’s annual All-Star Game, the sport’s future stars will find out which major league teams they’ll be playing for as the First-Year Player Draft gets underway.

The Baltimore Orioles will make the first pick of Sunday’s opening round – and while history tells us that landing a future Hall of Famer at No. 1 is a long shot, it has been done before. Here’s a look at the 20 best No. 1 overall picks on the basis of Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs WAR used in headers; statistics as of July 5):

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20. LHP Floyd Bannister (Houston Astros, 1976)134-143, 4.06 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 26.4 WAR

Bannister went from third-round pick in 1973 to the No. 1 choice in 1976 – and a fourth-place showing in the 1977 National League Rookie of the Year race set a positive early tone. But Bannister was league average from an ERA perspective over the rest of his career, peaking in 1982 when he led the AL in strikeouts (209) while making his only All-Star team.

19. RHP Mike Moore (Seattle Mariners, 1981)161-176, 4.39 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 27.9 WAR

Another third-rounder who went back into the draft and was taken No. 1 overall, Moore went just 66-96 in seven seasons with the Mariners with a ho-hum 97 ERA+ and a downright hideous 1.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He subsequently signed in Oakland, had the best season of his career his first year with the A’s (19-11, 2.61 ERA) and promptly returned to mediocrity.

18. OF Josh Hamilton (Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 1999).290 AVG, 200 HRs, 701 RBIs, 28.2 WAR

Hamilton is one of baseball’s great redemption stories, as prolific drug abuse nearly derailed his career before it began. He finally made his MLB debut with Cincinnati as a 26-year-old, showed promise as a rookie, then erupted following a trade to Texas, hitting 142 homers over five seasons with the Rangers and capturing an unlikely AL MVP award in 2010.

17. RHP Andy Benes (San Diego Padres, 1988)155-139, 3.97 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 31.5 WAR

Benes was one of the steadiest pitchers in baseball over his first six seasons, finishing fifth in NL ROY voting, sixth in the Cy Young balloting and earning his only All-Star nod in that span. He racked up a career-best 18 wins with St. Louis in 1996 – finishing third in the Cy Young race – and later became known for throwing the first pitch in Arizona Diamondbacks history.

16. OF Darin Erstad (California Angels, 1995).282 AVG, 124 HRs, 699 RBIs, 32.3 WAR

Erstad was a particularly fast mover in the early-1990s, going from a 13th-round pick in 1992 to the No. 1 choice three years later. The speedy outfielder showed flashes with the mitt (earning three Gold Gloves in his career) but the bat never really kept pace; he finished with a 93 OPS+ for his career, and was never league average following his outstanding 2000 season.

15. SS Justin Upton (Arizona Diamondbacks, 2005).261 AVG, 325 HRs, 1,003 RBIs, 32.3 WAR

Hopes were high for Upton, and he lived up to the promise with All-Star nods in 2009 and 2011 (finishing fourth in MVP voting in ‘11 thanks to 31 home runs and 21 steals). But while he would go on to make two more All-Star teams, things quickly went downhill after his 30th birthday. He’s now a journeyman at 34, and isn’t likely to add much to his current WAR total.

14. RHP Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals, 2009)113-62, 3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 32.3 WAR

Baseball card collectors remember. Strasburg’s arrival remains one of the most hotly-anticipated in the past 20 years – yet, while he has shown flashes of complete and total brilliance, injuries have carved a significant swath through the peak of his major-league career. He was truly great in his last full season – but that was 2019, and the future doesn’t look super-promising.

13. OF Rick Monday (Oakland Athletics, 1965).264, 241 HRs, 775 RBIs, 33.1 WAR

Well before he became synonymous with pain in Montreal, Monday wore the mantel as the first No. 1 overall pick in MLB history. Longevity was Monday’s greatest skill, as he managed to play parts of 19 major-league seasons (and amass positive WAR in 17 of them). And while he didn’t come close to making the Hall of Fame, he was a serviceable player overall.

12. RHP Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh Pirates, 2011)124-65, 3.19 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 33.3 WHIP

This guy should climb the list with ease over the next few seasons. One of the few players to go back into the draft despite being taken in the first round (by the Yankees, ironically), Cole was picked No. 1 by Pittsburgh and had one sensational season in his first five years there before heading to Houston, where he became … well, the version you now know.

11. SS B.J. Surhoff (Milwaukee Brewers, 1985).282 AVG, 188 HRs, 1,153 RBIs, 34.4 WAR

Give Surhoff credit for doing two incredibly difficult things over the course of his MLB career: moving from shortstop to catcher, and driving in a ton of runs without hitting a ton of homers. The former feat allowed him to remain a productive player for 19 major-league seasons; the latter earned him praise as one of the best offensive catchers of his era.

10. SS Carlos Correa (Houston Astros, 2012).278 AVG, 142 HRs, 518 RBIs, 36.0 WAR

Of any player here not already in Cooperstown, Correa probably has the best shot at eventually getting there. He has already amassed a ton of WAR through eight-plus MLB campaigns, is still performing at a high level, and won’t turn 28 until September. That said, where Correa ends up after the 2022 season could go a long way toward determining his Hall fate.

9. 1B Harold Baines (Chicago White Sox, 1977).289 AVG, 384 HRs, 1,628 RBIs, 38.8 WAR

Baines is the textbook example of how old-school baseball analysts value players – and why the new breed of experts couldn’t disagree more. Baines had a nice career (eight All-Star nods, two Silver Sluggers), but earned more than 4 WAR in a season just once and accumulated more than 1 WAR in just one of his final five major-league seasons.

8. LHP David Price (Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 2007)155-82, 3.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 39.6 WAR

Boy, it sure looked like Price was on the fast track to Cooperstown early in his career. A Cy Young Award at 26 (two years after finishing second in voting) and a strikeout title at 28 certainly appeared to portend great things. But injuries and a bizarre lack of effectiveness has turned Price into a mere mortal in recent years, and there’s no telling where he goes from here.

7. OF Darryl Strawberry (New York Mets, 1980).259 AVG, 335 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, 42.2 WAR

We’re left to wonder what could have been with dozens of major-league players – but it’s hard not to have Strawberry at the top of that list. From perennial All-Star and MVP candidate in his 20s to mere afterthought from age 30 on, Strawberry saw a promising career – and likely a spot in Cooperstown – derailed by multiple instances of substance abuse.  

6. OF Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals, 2010).281 AVG, 282 HRs, 800 RBIs, 42.6 WAR

Sure, you’d like a player this ballyhooed to show a little more consistency. But that’s some major-league nitpicking when talking about one of the most talented players to hit the field in the past 25 years. The two-time National League MVP has silenced doubters with emphasis, and glides into his 30s on track to be a Hall of Famer (if, of course, he stays healthy). 

5. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (Florida Marlins, 2000).287 AVG, 317 HRs, 1,202 RBIs, 43.5 WAR

With Harper knocking on the door and Correa not far behind, Gonzo is not long for a spot in the top-5 on this list. But the fact that he’s here at all is a major testament to just how good he was in his prime: Four straight seasons of 30+ HRs, six consecutive campaigns of 99+ RBIs, and a sensational mitt that snagged him four career Gold Glove awards.

4. C Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins, 2001).306 AVG, 143 HRs, 923 RBIs, 55.2 WAR

If the average baseball fan could choose the trajectory of his or her career, we might all take Mauer’s. Drafted by his hometown team as the first pick in 2001, Mauer quickly became one of the most revered athletes in Minnesota history – and he backed it up with a trio of batting titles, six All-Star nods, three Gold Gloves  and the American League MVP Award in 2009.

3. OF Ken Griffey Jr. (Seattle Mariners, 1987).284 AVG, 630 HRs, 1,836 RBIs, 83.8 WAR

Between the athleticism, the family lineage and that sweet, sweet swing, Junior officially put Seattle baseball on the map as the No. 1 pick. He finished in the top-5 in American League MVP voting five times, including a win in 1997 when he smashed 56 homers (his first of three straight AL home run titles) and drove in a major-league-best 147 runs.

2. SS Chipper Jones (Atlanta Braves, 1990).303 AVG, 468 HRs, 1,623 RBIs, 85.3 WAR

The Braves franchise had seen its share of superstars before Chipper came along – but few put together the kind of career the 1990 No. 1 overall pick crafted. From the moment he became a full-time player as a 23-year-old, Jones didn’t have a single bad season. He did, however, have plenty of good ones, highlighted by his 1999 National League MVP campaign.

1. SS Alex Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners, 1993).295 AVG, 696 HRs, 2,086 RBIs, 117.6 WAR

It might be decades before we ultimately see a better No. 1 overall pick than the one taken by the Mariners nearly three decades ago. Between the three MVP awards, the 14 All-Star nods, the 10 Silver Sluggers and the two Gold Gloves, there was no more complete player in the majors during the 20+ years A-Rod took the field. He’s the greatest No. 1 pick ever.

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