NBA Playoff Trends: Nets, Heat, Suns, and Warriors Attracting Money at BetMGM

Early in the NBA Playoffs, some betting trends have emerged, and star power is drawing the most money at BetMGM when it comes to wagering on the NBA Championship.

One way to look at where the sharp money is heading is to compare the ratio of handle compared to tickets. The higher the percentage, the greater amount of money that is being spent per ticket on that particular team.

There are five teams in the NBA postseason that have a handle higher than their ticket percentage. Here is a look at each of those five clubs plus another contender and how their odds have shifted.

Brooklyn Nets

The team with the highest percentage of the handle relative to their number of tickets, the Nets lost 115-114 to the Boston Celtics in game one of their series and this first-round matchup is going to be a challenge. To be fair, more of the Nets wagers have come early in the season when they were the favorites — they opened the season priced at +225 to win the NBA Championship — but their odds have climbed to +1200 since the trade sending James Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Ben Simmons.

https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1515814269597667336?s=20&t=PgxEcigdbavTFwMH9QuqhQ

Now, the Nets will try to bounce back in Game Two, but they are 3.5-point underdogs for Wednesday’s matchup in Boston.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat put the hammer down, winning 115-91 in game one against the Atlanta Hawks. Miami opened the season priced at +3500, so a relative longshot. But after finishing with the best record (53-29) in the Eastern Conference, those odds have dropped to +900.

While the Heat might be a tough out, they are not drawing a big share of the money, capturing 5.2% of the handle on just 4.1% of the tickets at BetMGM. In relative terms, there may be some sharp money on the Heat, but they are not pulling a big percentage overall.

Phoenix Suns

Even with point guard Chris Paul injured late in the season, the Suns easily finished with the best record in the NBA, going 64-18, and started the playoffs with a 110-99 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans in game one. To no surprise, the Suns have marched their way into becoming the betting favorite, named on 26.5% of the tickets for 30.9% of the handle at BetMGM. After opening the season at +1400, the Suns odds have come down to +200 to win the NBA title.

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Golden State Warriors

While none of these teams that are drawing a greater percentage of the handle are major surprises, it might be a little more notable that the Warriors have looked so good in their first two playoff games against the Denver Nuggets. They have won by 16 and 20 points, respectively, in two home games.

The Warriors have battled through injuries during the season and superstar PG Steph Curry just returned to action for game one against Denver. But when the Warriors are healthy and playing well, it is easy to imagine them contending for another championship. The Warriors are good for 13.1% of the handle on 11.2% of the tickets at BetMGM, with their season-opening championship odds of +1200 dropping to +500 now.

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Boston Celtics

Maybe the biggest surprise among the title contenders, the Celtics opened the season at +4000. Since then, those odds have come down to +800 to win the championship. BetMGM cites the Celtics as their biggest liability on the board when it comes to winning the Eastern Conference, with odds going from +2000 at opening to +360 now. The Celtics are on 16.2% of the tickets, for 17.0% of the handle at BetMGM to win the Eastern Conference.

Milwaukee Bucks

The defending champion Milwaukee Bucks are drawing big money to win Eastern Conference, capturing 29.6% of the handle on just 13.8% of the wagers at BetMGM. However, they do not appear to have the same kind of appeal when it comes to the NBA Championship. The Bucks have the second shortest odds right now, at +450, and are on 10.6% of the tickets for 9.2% of the handle at BetMGM. The market loves the Bucks to get to the final but maybe not to win this time around. Milwaukee won 93-86 in game one of their playoff series against the Chicago Bulls.

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