2022 NL MVP Debate: Nolan Arenado vs. Manny Machado

Early in the 2022 Major League Baseball season, a couple of veteran third basemen have emerged as two of the top candidates for Most Valuable Player in the National League. We are only a couple of weeks into a long MLB season, so there is obviously a lot of room for change but, as early trends go, these are a couple of players to track when it comes to NL MVP.

Nolan Arenado of the St. Louis Cardinals and Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres have come out of the gate swinging and combined with their strong defensive play, have climbed to the top of the WAR rankings on FanGraphs.

Finishing with the highest WAR is not a direct path to winning the MVP, but as an objective measure of player production it usually puts a player into the conversation.

Here is a look at the early MVP case for both Arenado and Machado via FanDuel and BetMGM.

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Nolan Arenado

Arenado, 31, was a massively productive hitter when he was with the Colorado Rockies. From 2015 through 2019, Arenado’s average season was 40 home runs, 124 RBI, 104 runs scored, with a slash line of .300/.362/.575. In that five-year span, he finished in the Top 8 in voting for National League MVP in each season, finishing as high as third, in 2018.

When Arenado was traded to St. Louis before the 2021 season, it was reasonable to be skeptical that his production would stay at an elite level. After all, he was leaving hitter-friendly Coors Field and had been much more productive at home than on the road. While Arenado’s batting average dipped to a career-low .255 last season, he did hit 34 home runs.

This season, Arenado has been a monster. In 10 games, he has five home runs, five doubles, 14 RBI, and 10 runs scored, with a slash line of .368/.442/.895. His FanGraphs WAR of 1.2 leads MLB.

That is unsustainably great. His batting average on balls in play is a career-high .346, his home run/flyball rate is a career-high 27.8%, and his barrel rate is a career-high 16.1%. All of those numbers are likely to regress. What is encouraging, in addition to Arenado’s power numbers, is that he has been more selective at the plate, earning a career-high walk rate of 11.6%.

Those offensive numbers, being put up by an elite defensive third baseman, is enough to get Arenado into early MVP contention.

His quick start has been reflected by a change in his NL MVP odds. Arenado opened the season priced at +2700 at FanDuel Sportsbook and that price has come down to +1600.

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Manny Machado

29-year-old Machado has been a consistently productive hitter to this point in his career, with some bursts that have put him into MVP contention. He has finished in the Top 5 in MVP voting three times in his career, twice with Baltimore (2015, 2016) and, most recently, when the Padres third baseman finished third in NL MVP voting during the shortened 2020 season.

In 14 games for the Padres this season, Machado has three home runs, 10 RBI, 12 runs scored, and three stolen bases to go with a slash line of .358/.433/.623. Machado’s FanGraphs WAR of 1.1 ranks second in Major League Baseball.

Like Arenado, some of Machado’s numbers are too good to be true. Machado has a batting average on balls in play of .410, which is way beyond his career BABIP of .298, so maybe that batting average is due for regression, but the power numbers are not entirely out of line with Machado’s history. He has been more aggressive at the plate, seeing a career low 32.9% of pitches inside the strike zone, well below his career average of 42.4%.

Also, like Arenado, Machado is a strong defender at third base. He has taken on more responsibility for the Padres early in this season because star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. is out while he recovers from a broken wrist, so that would help feed the narrative of Machado as the team leader in the absence of a player who was one of the favorites for NL MVP before his wrist injury was revealed.

Machado’s odds have moved from +3500 on FanDuel at the start of the season to +3000, so he is still more of a value proposition, but it is notable that the players with the two highest WAR in baseball are a pair of National League third basemen.

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