JNic's tennis picks

[JNic]

i've been doing really well since the start of may with that bmw open through the french open and a little bit into this grasscourt season. i'm gonna post my picks and see how i do
ATP Eastbourne: Istomin over GGL -150 - 1.5u to win 1u
BOL everybody

[JW Cash]

good luck man...I am gonna tail you today and see how it goes.......

[shari91]

Best of luck J!

[newjerseydevils]

good luck

[matosh]

tipsarevic finaly win

[matosh]

good luck

[noober]

good luck. i think ggl will give him trouble.

[JNic]

yea noober you were right, i thought istomin would be able to overpower him. he did that in the first and then errors just crept into istomin's game and GGL was just tenacious in the rallies. great returning by GGL too, he really gets a lot back in play. tough loss

[JNic]

0-1 -1.5u
Petkovic +5.5 vs Henin -110 - 1.1u to win 1u

[will2survive]

Anyone agree with a Llorda-Henin parlay?

I missed out on a couple of thousand last night--all underdogs won in a 4 teamer for me and I took a big favorite in WNBA--Mercury -300 and they killed me

Going on tilt utting all that I have on Llorda and Henin in a parlay

I'm afraid to take Llorda and Henin's value isn't so great but she's a great player and I would rather lose with her

[JNic]

yea i was way too scared to take llodra, garcia-lopez looks like he could scrap something together. but dont worry you should have a winning parlay there, llodra looks too good on serve

[noober]

petkovic +5.5 is a lock now. good pick

[JNic]

haha thanks, avoided that bagel. now i can root for her to win for no reason

[JNic]

1-1 -.5u

Wimbledon 1st round Plays
Brands +100 - 1u to win 1u
Ball +130 - 1u to win 1.3u
Leo Mayer +210 - 1u to win 2.1u
Dent-250/Troicki-355 - 1.26u to win 1u

what else i noticed, isner vs mahut is a really interesting matchup and i will probably play the over when it comes out.

zeballos and ferrero are both very capable dogs at +110 but i wasn't too confident

dustin brown +400 against melzer is a very good play and i will probably play the handicap

almagro is back after being carried off a stretcher? seppi is -110 here but i can't pick it knowing almagro could be healthy

clement is a big dog against tipsarevic and with tipsy's breakdown at the final i really think clement at +210 is worth it

oli rochus will have a great handicap against djokovic, look at their head to head and djokovic's recent form

there is a lot of interesting stuff in this first round

[JNic]

holy shit brands went from +115 to -140, maybe andreev is still hurt

[JNic]

Brands drops to -310!!!
More Picks
.7u to win .5u - Brown +6.5 vs Melzer
.75u to win .5u - Hewitt -10.5 vs Maximo Gonzalez

[noober]

Nice early pick on Brands. You can hedge pretty good now but I don't think it's needed.

[JNic]

YTD 4-4 -.7u
wimbledon 1st round
Bellucci-250/Youzhny-230 - 2u to win 2u
Isner -140 - 5.6u to win 4u
Late add - Youzhny -255 - 2.55u to win 1u - stupid with the parlay above...

[JNic]

YTD 6-4 +2.13u
Pending: Isner -140 - 5.6u to win 4u
Wimby 2nd round
Troicki +175 - 4u to win 7u
Brands +150 - 2.6u to win 4u
Istomin -160 - 2.4u to win 2u

[JNic]

correction: istomin -160 - 3.2u to win 2u.. haha bad math

[JNic]

Late Adds:
Ilhan +134 - 2u to win 2.6u
Hewitt -7.5 (-102) - 2u to win 2u

[michalis]

troicki is doing well

[JNic]

yea, its annoying though cause the court has no cameras, so i have no idea what's actually going on out there

[JNic]

troicki, such a tough 5 set loss to take

[michalis]

what a choke by troicki, it was a good pick though

[JNic]

so troicki goes down in the 5th, a pure dagger. brands and isner could both possibly go down and kill me, just need isner match to run out of light and stop play. it sorta amazes me how very few were on brands, davydenko isn't 100% on his worst surface

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice pickin'. I can't believe I forgot to fade Davydenko today.

[JNic]

YTD 8-6 +2.13u
Pending: Isner -140 5.6u to win 4u - The Troicki loss was really devastating, would have been a huge bonus

2 dogs tomorrow and 2 favs: Dolgopolov +300 i was so close to playing, if he wins i'll be pissed

Chardy +100 - Chardy has the game to match Lacko, Lacko is obviously in better form and pulled off the upset against Baghdatis so he is favorite. A simple 50/50 in my mind with good odds. 2u to win 2u

Kubot +230 - I'm not sold on Petz being this big a favorite, he played great in the leadup tournies while Kubot lost to Almagro in straights in his only match. Kubot's serve looked good and could pull off the upset here 2u to win 4.6u

Fognini -135 - Russell is a dud, Fognini is also a dud on grass but he's more of a big match player. Gotta take Fognini here, better serve, baseline game is about equal. 2.7u to win 2u

Bellucci -145 - Bellucci had a dominant serve in first round, his power clay game quickly translates to grass. Fischer doesn't have the experience and I don't think mentally he's ready to pull off the upset, his game speaks volumes to pull off this upset, with 10 straight grass court sets won but we will see a Bellucci vs Soderling matchup here 2.9u to win 2u

[noober]

Not that I don't agree with the Chardy pick but if you see it as a 50-50 match it has no positive expected value at +100.

[JNic]

haha yea, i realized that after i wrote it. Chardy up 2-0 though, he's really a strange player. one day his serve shows up big, the next it's awful
Late Add: Isner -120 - 1.2u to win 1u

[kop1987]

Jnic, i am on J.chardy.. do u think he can win the game? or should i cover some on lacko?

[JNic]

he is gonna win this 4th set tiebreaker

[kop1987]

lets hope so.. 3-3 now. =)

[kop1987]

oh.. down 4-3.. =(

[JNic]

5-5 this is up for grabs